Official UFC on Fox 17 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

Mortex2 said:
Guys, when you bet new fighters, what do you base your assumptions on? I mean Ngannou looks scary, but with all that muscle mass, he may gas. I watched some youtube footage on both guys in question, and I can not make up my mind on the favorite in this match-up.

I saw one guy in this thread posting $500 on Ngannou, if he is not joking, this is a heavy bet on a guy whom we hardly seen in UFC. I was planning to bet him too, just on physique alone, but i just want to hear what is the logic behind backing him when betting sites have pretty even odds, only so slightly favoring Ngannou.

Anyone cares to expand on that?
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Yes. There are 3 categories of fights in which I bet smaller than the rest.

-wmma
-heavyweights
-new blood

I've argued this point for years.. Some people disagree. The usual counter is a perceived bigger edge over the bookie if you cap it right. This has some merit.

But I still think it's irresponsible to bet new guys the same amount as established fighters... Let alone bigger
 
Pssst card - I already posted the fighters squaring off pics! Hehe
 
KampSiver said:
Every fight to start round 2. $20 to win $877.22. Probably a dumb bet, but if it gets past a few fights, it could be looking good. Particularly the first fight of the night. lol.
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Haha.. I was like hrmm that's intriguing.. Hey wait what about.. Yea..... That first one... Heh
 
EzFlyer said:
Yes. There are 3 categories of fights in which I bet smaller than the rest.

-wmma
-heavyweights
-new blood

I've argued this point for years.. Some people disagree. The usual counter is a perceived bigger edge over the bookie if you cap it right. This has some merit.

But I still think it's irresponsible to bet new guys the same amount as established fighters... Let alone bigger
Click to expand...

Thank you Ez. That is exactly my train of thought. WMMA is so fucking similar to women's tennis (i do a lot of tennis betting) in a way that you either bet small or do not bet at all. Heavyweights newbies is pretty much similar, anyone can knock anyone out at any given time, and having seen barely any fights in pro circuit, it is rather difficult to make an informed decision. In Ngannou we have two of the unknowns - heavyweights and new to UFC. That is a risky bet whichever way you slice it. Based on gut feeling alone, i would go with Ngannou, but based on the same gut feeling I am staying away from this one.
 
EzFlyer said:
Yes. There are 3 categories of fights in which I bet smaller than the rest.

-wmma
-heavyweights
-new blood
Click to expand...

You're just going to give up betting when they start off a heavyweight Womens TUF competition?!?! :(
 
Why is Castillo the underdog? Am I missing something? He is a bigger guy with good wrestling. If the wrestling cancels out then the standup advantage goes to Castillo.
 
kenCs said:
I might just hammer RDA.
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I thought RDA would take this regardless of a preexisting injury. Having said that, we don't know how bad of an injury (if any) that was. He may have just jarred/lightly sprained it and it has already healed.

Just food for thought.
 
kenCs said:
Why is Castillo the underdog? Am I missing something? He is a bigger guy with good wrestling. If the wrestling cancels out then the standup advantage goes to Castillo.
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On Lentz cause I think he'll make it a dog fight where he'll strive and be much more active
 
kenCs said:
Got this from another thread. At 7.19. Cerrone is injured. See the way he looks at it and says he is "muy bueno". He lingers on it. That right leg isnt gonna be kicking much. At -200 RDA is a steal, I think. Up to -250 I would go with RDA.
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ok, yea, that actually looks like something...
 
Mortex2 said:
So no one is on Marquardt money line?
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I'll definetely be on him!! I'll place at least a decent sized bet on this one. I'm waiting though. I think his line probably continues to climb a bit. He's lost like 5 out of 6 now. Mostly to pretty good competition though. But he's looked very bad recently. At +350 I absolutely feel there is value.

-When a guy goes on a run like Marquardt has and looking quite bad, people tend to over-react on betting against them.

Yes CB's improved a lot and Marquardt is no where near his peak, but he's certainly got a few options to come out ahead in this fight. If he lands he can absolutely end this fight.
 
Any one like this parlay
Kumaru Usman
Josh Samman
Danny Castillo
JDS
MJ/Nate o2.5.
+809

If I remove MJ/Nate its +4.72 however adding RDA make it +745 making it the safer bet.
 
Mortex2 said:
Thank you Ez. That is exactly my train of thought. WMMA is so fucking similar to women's tennis (i do a lot of tennis betting) in a way that you either bet small or do not bet at all. Heavyweights newbies is pretty much similar, anyone can knock anyone out at any given time, and having seen barely any fights in pro circuit, it is rather difficult to make an informed decision. In Ngannou we have two of the unknowns - heavyweights and new to UFC. That is a risky bet whichever way you slice it. Based on gut feeling alone, i would go with Ngannou, but based on the same gut feeling I am staying away from this one.
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haha, tennis is my 2nd best betting sport, too, and i, too, don't give a FUCK about WTA. i'll stab at the quarterfinals onward on the four majors, SOMETIMES, but that's it. they can't hold serve for squat!

and yea, i have ngannou, too, BUT i bet it for a couple units as a "stocks" bet (i'm gonna hedge for a good price , small risk)
 
Joseph Budden said:
On Lentz cause I think he'll make it a dog fight where he'll strive and be much more active
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Castillo is and has made improvements to striking. He has something to prove aswell. I think he takes it and at dog odds, Ill take it.
 
kenCs said:
I might just hammer RDA.
Click to expand...

I don't know, Cerrone probably would have finished RDA had their last fight been 5 rounds. If he doesn't get rocked early it could be even more in his favor toward the end. Also, he knows this will likely be by far his best chance to win the title, so he will be on point. Finally, I think he has improved against south paws of late. His right teep (particularly devastating since it is aimed at the south paw's liver) especially.

Granted this is the new RDA, so I am fairly small on Cerrone.
 
Damn guys, I started with $50 bucks and in 3 weeks I had $1,800 in my bankroll. My ROI got up to the 70s%.
Today I have $0.
I set out to do this as a job and profit greatly which I did, but then more bills came in and the stress affected me and I was chasing profits instead of losses.
I made bad decisions and worst of all incorrect ones, I placed a live bet for Suns to win the 1st quarter or so I thought, went to sleep expecting to see $1,000.00 in my account next morning but when I woke up I realized I had placed an unintended bet for Suns to win the first half.

Moral of the story is to step away when stressed and to not chase anything, specially profit.
Probably could have taken a break too, I had been betting for 26 days straight every day: soccer, nhl, nba, nfl, mma, etc...
 
Carsormyr said:
I thought RDA would take this regardless of a preexisting injury. Having said that, we don't know how bad of an injury (if any) that was. He may have just jarred/lightly sprained it and it has already healed.

Just food for thought.
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Even the slightest injury will cause someone to focus on it. He will be more hesitant to kick with it. This may be sherdog psychology but the way he lingers on it and Overeem asking sincerely makes me show that it has been affecting his training a little bit. May even be a shin injury, those dont hurt bad but when targeted or kicking with it will cause pain.
 
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