UFN 81 - Post your bets!

Agent Mulder

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UFC FN 81

***UPDATE***
Also added the following, mostly small plays:

Dillashaw r4 0.05u @ +2200
Dillashaw r5 0.05u @ +2800
Latifi vs O'Connell O1.5 1u @ -110
Latifi dec 0.2u @ +500
Rosa 1u @ -250
Wade r3 0.1u @ +1800
Cruickshank dec 0.1u @ +500
Herman dec 0.1u @ +600
Trinaldo dec 0.2u @ +350


Cote - 2u @ +100
Browne - 1u @ -172
Blanco - 1u @ -125
Cote v Saunders O2.5 - 1u @ -110
Felder v Cruickshank O1.5 - 1u @ -200

TJ v Cruz O2.5 + Felder v Cruickshank O1.5 - 2u @ +100
TJ + Pettis 2u @ +122
Pettis + Saffeidine - 1u @ +104
 
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Are we doing a separate thread for this? Just delete this otherwise but I think it would help a bit.

I dont think im done yet as im waiting for the new lines for the replacement fights.

UFC FN 81

Cote - 2u @ +100
Browne - 1u @ -172
Blanco - 1u @ -125
Cote v Saunders O2.5 - 1u @ -110
Felder v Cruickshank O1.5 - 1u @ -200

TJ v Cruz O2.5 + Felder v Cruickshank O1.5 - 2u @ +100
TJ + Pettis 2u @ +122
Pettis + Saffeidine - 1u @ +104

this is totally good -- was gonna open one later in the week -- keep the thread on bet posting primarily, discuss the ufn 81 on that main thread
 
ufn 81 Risk: 2,745.50
cruz +120: 200 for 240 / cruz DEC: 40 for 102 / dillashaw no judges: 145 for 100
alvarez +250: 100 for 250 / alvarez DEC: 40 for 190 / pettis SUB: 20 for 102
browne -153: 229 for 150 / browne SUB: 20 for 217 / mitrione
trinaldo +155: 50 for 77.50 / pearson
cote +112: 150 for 167.50 / O2.5: 50 for 60 / saunders
wade +214: 200 for 427.50 / taisumov
herman DEC: 20 for 98 / boetsch
blanco -146: 291.50 for 200 / sanders
felder -215: 215 for 100 / cruickshank
latifi -220: 220 for 100 / U1.5: 50 for 72.50 / o'connell
rosa -149: 597.50 for 400 / O2.5: 67.50 for 50 / hettes
font-gomez U1.5: 40 for 50
barroso-Edilov: idk
props
parlays
---

i didn't update after the 3 fight cancellations, obv those are voided
 
As of right now...

$20 on Cruz to win $25
$10 Pettis + Browne to win $11
$5 on Cote to win $5

Still waiting on Betonline to allow me a parlay which ill include

Latifi + Felder + Blanco

Ill take a stab at Alvarez via UD as well on fight night. Im still not sold Eddie can beat Pettis.
Pettis is a finisher and Eddie has been submitted a few times plus hes been rocked a lot in his last couple fights. Might throw a small bet down on under 2.5 since the odds are looking good, maybe parlay that with under 1.5 on Browne/Mitrione.

If I can recover some of my loss from last night tonight then ill bet a lot more but I want to save most of it for football on sunday. Im liking the Pats, Cards, Broncs, and Seahawks.
 
Going to go lighter for this event after the atrocious 194 and 195. Gonna get the ball rolling for this year. Gonna limit the amount on parlays and props as well as make money on the overs/unders + SU bets. Aldo killed me.
These are older bets placed on bet365. Not finalized yet. LB is the real money maker.

TJ for £25 at -143.
Cote for £15 at +100
O1.5 Browne/Mitrione for £20 at +150
Felder + Latifi + Pettis + Edilov for £5 at +268
U1.5 Latifi/O'Connell for £11 at -110

Gonna wait a little bit to hammer TJ at better odds for £250. Might go as high as £100 for Latifi ITD. £150 on the main event not going the distance. I feel like the odds are gonna get sweeter here and hoping for a TJ finish in the 4th/5th.
 
my action so far. not finalized so putting it in spoilers, don't know why

Cruz $250 @ 2.35
Browne $400 @ 1.671
Cote $150 @ 2.05
Latifi $250 @ 1.436
Cruickshank $50 @ 2.90
Trinaldo $100 @ 245
Alvarez $50 @ 3.65
Blanco $200 @ 1.833
Font $200 @ 1.518

not in love with this event for betting, will look into it more as we approach. glad to see I'm mostly on board with EzFlyer on my picks
 
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Cruz
Pettis
Browne
Pearson
Cote (big)
Boetsch
Baghdad (small)
Cruickshank (small)
Latifi

Very big on the following parlay:

Felder/Cruick over + Cote/Saunders over
 
ufn 81 Risk: 2,412.50
cruz +120: 200 for 240 / cruz DEC: 40 for 102 / draw: 2 for 300 / dillashaw nojudges: 145 for 100
alvarez +250: 100 for 250 / alvarez DEC: 40 for 190 / alvarez +3.5: 150 for 195 / pettis SUB: 20 for 102
browne -153: 229 for 150 / browne SUB: 20 for 217 / mitrione
trinaldo +143: 100 for 142.50 / pearson
cote +112: 150 for 167.50 / O2.5: 50 for 60 / saunders
herman DEC: 20 for 98 / herman +3.5: 100 for 115 / boetsch
wade SUB: 50 for 297.50 / wade RD 3: 10 for 137.50 / baghdad
blanco -146: 291.50 for 200 / sanders
felder -215: 215 for 100 / cruickshank
latifi -220: 220 for 100 / latifi SUB: 20 for 90 / U1.5: 50 for 72.50 / o'connell
rosa-bochniak: idk
font-gomez U1.5: 40 for 50
mutapcic DEC: 40 for 93.60 / O2.5: 110 for 100 / barroso
props
parlays
---

updated after the fighter swaps. will update again before the fights when i start to finalize
 
Cruz $250 @ 2.35 / $150 @ 2.20
Browne $400 @ 1.671
Cote $150 @ 2.05 / $125 @ 2.00
Latifi $250 @ 1.436
Cruickshank $50 @ 2.90 / $150 @ 3.12
Trinaldo $100 @ 2.45
Alvarez $50 @ 3.65
Blanco $200 @ 1.833
Font $200 @ 1.518
Mutapcic $300 @ 1.609
Boetsch $400 @ 1.454

Cruz/TJ o4.5 $300 @ 1.512
Boetsch/Herman u2.5 $150 @ 1.925
O'Connell/Latifi o1.5 $400 @ 1.90
Cruickshank/Felder o1.5 $250 @ 1.497
Alvarez/Pettis o2.5 $150 @ 1.854
Wade/Baghdad o2.5 $200 @ 1.512
Font/Gomez u1.5 $100 @ 2.00
Barroso/Mutapcic $300 @ 1.746

total stake: $4,525

Also have these props in offline bets with a friend just to try and punish him a bit. Biggest bet is $50
Cruickshank decision
TJ round 4, TJ round 5
Latifi decision
Cote decision
Herman decision
Browne sub
Pettis sub
Alvarez decision
Wade sub / Wade round 3
Mutapcic decision

think i'm done but you never know
 
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I'm finalized. Hopefully there's some better lines during live-betting.


Cruz +120 (5u) (a mixture of +130 and +115)
Pettis/Alvarez ITD -115 (1u)
Browne -148 (2u)
Trinaldo decision +300 (.5u)
Cote +100 (2u)
Wade/Baghdad ITD +145 (.5u)
Blanco -130 (1.5u)
Latifi -205 (3u)
Latifi/O’Connell u1.5 +125 (1.5u)
Felder/Cruickshank u1.5 +155 (.5u)
Felder/Cruickshank ITD -130 (1u)
Rosa/Bochniak u2.5 -125 (1u)
Font submission +1200 (.5u)
Font/Gomez u1.5 +105 (1u)


Parlay 2u for 3.4u: Pettis, Felder, Taisumov (Taisumov’s fight is cancelled)
 
Of course i'll be betting as the night progresses but I feel prettyyyy finalized

Cruz by dec, Dillashaw in round 4 and round 5
Pettis ML, Pettis itd
Mitrione ML, Mitrione by dec, Browne by sub
Trinaldo by dec
Cote ML, Cote by KO
Boetsch ML, o2.5
Wade in round 2 and 3
Blanco ML
Felder ML
O'Connell vs Latifi goes the distance, prob stab the over too but not on it just yet
Rosa by sub
Mutapcic by KO, o2.5
 
£700 Pearson + Pettis @ +110.

£20 Trinaldo split @ +1000.

£300 Miocic (cashed) + Pettis @ -110.

Normally i never hedge but the Pearson fight is worrying me so have thrown a little hedge in.
 
Finalized here pre event.

Singles
Cruz: $50 to win $68.75 $118.75
Mitrione: $7.50 to win $10.50 Loss
Bochniak/Rosa under 2.5: $7.50 to win $5.77 Loss
Pettis (-3.5): $7.50 to win $4.69 Loss
Wade/Baghdad ITD: $6.25 to win $8.75 $15
Blanco: $6.25 to win $5.21 Loss
Mutapcic: $6.25 to win $3.91Loss
Gomez (scorecards = no action): $3.75 to win $6.79 Loss
Poppie: $2.50 to win $4 $6.50
Ben Smith: $2.50 to win $3.38 Loss
Anderson: $2.50 to win $1.39 $3.89
Mumma: $1.25 to win $1.88 Loss
Riley: $1.25 to win $12.50 $13.75
Gray: $1.25 to win $4.38 Loss
Souza: $1.25 to win $1.19 $3.44
Schuckman: $1.25 to win $4.18 Loss

Risk of $108.75 $161.33

Parlays
Field over Spieth (Hyundai) + Latifi: $10 to win $7.31 Loss

Pettis + Cruz (+5.5): $10 to win $9.92 Loss
Edilov + Mitrione/Browne ITD: $7.50 to win $1.68 (adjusted) $9.18
Field over D. Johnson (Hyundai) + Pearson: $6.25 to win $5.29 Loss
Field over Kisner (Sony) + O'Connell/Latifi ITD: $6.25 to win $3.73 $9.98
Field over Snedeker + Not Cote Dec: $6.25 to win $3.06 $9.31
Felder + Boetsch: $5 to win $6.29 Loss
Freitas + Felix + Font/Gomez ITD: $2.50 to win $3.49 Loss
Field over Z. Johnson (Sony) + Cyborg + Pa'Aluh + Brown: $1.25 to win $1.29 Loss
Field over Snedeker (Sony) + Cyborg + Cruz/Dilla starts 2 + Browne/Mit ITD: $1.25 to win $1.32 $2.57

Risk of $56.25 $31.04

RISK OF $165 $192.37


TOTALS FOR 2016: Initial Risk was $165, Running total is $199.74, Running Profit = $34.74 (Approximate ROI for year 13.234%)
TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $263.68 Running Profit: $168.68 Approximate ROI for year 3.901%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2748.93 Total Profit = $2729.93 (Approximate ROI: 12.8599%)
 
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Latifi SUB (+500) 0.2u
Wade ITD (+289) 0.5u
Cote (+115) 1u
Browne (-156) 1u
Browne SUB (+1085) 0.2u
Pettis -3.5 (-145) 1u
Pettis SUB (+510) 0.2u
Cruz (+120) 1u
 
Well I got to go to work so this is my finalized bets but I should be home in time to see the main event and possibly bet more if cote comes through
Singles

Cote - 56 to win 61.60
Cote DEC - 6.50 to win 16.25
Blanco - 34.50 to win 30
Cruickshank (+3.5) - 15 to win 19.50
Cruickshank DEC - 5.50 to win 21.18

Parlays

Pettis/ Browne U1.5 - 30 to win 20.18
Latifi/ Browne U1.5 - 15 to win 16.98
Latifi/ Cruickshank O1.5 - 14 to win 14.92
Pettis/ Wade - 23 to win 14.92
Browne U1.5/ Wade (-3.5) - 8 to win 11.79
Browne/ Wade - 15 to win 16.85
Pettis/ Not Saunders ITD - 20 to win 15.54
Blanco/ Not Saunders ITD - 6.50 to win 9.86
Wade ITD/ Cote DEC - 3 to win 30.67
Pettis/ Wade/ Cruickshank (+3.5) - 5.50 to win 15.36
Pettis/ Browne U3/ Trinaldo DEC - 5 to win 27.84
Wade/ Latifi/ Cote DEC - 4 to win 20.57
Pettis/ Wade/ Browne U2/ Not Saunders ITD - 5 to win 9.73
Cote/ Wade/ Blanco/ Latifi - 2.51 to win 14.04
Wade/ Pettis (-3.5)/ Browne U3/ Cote DEC - 1.25 to win 9.55
Pettis/ Wade/ Latifi/ Browne U3/ Cote DEC - 2 to win 18.68

277.26 to win 416.01 with 67.55 remaining in my acct.
 
£10 to win £568 - Boestch SU + Wade dec + Pearson dec + Cote dec
 
Mostly just props so far that I liked odds-wise.

Joey Gomez ITD @ 6.0 = £2.12 returns £12.72
Latifi by sub @ 6.50 = £2 returns £13
Pearson by UD @ 3.50 = £2 returns £7
Cote by SD @ 13.00 = £1 returns £13
Alvarez by SD @ 15.00 = £1 returns £15

Hail Mary (£2 free bet):

Rosa by sub/Blanco/Pearson Decision/Wade by sub/Font by sub @ 365.00 = £2 returns £733

Got another free £2 bet that I'll probably use on a hail mary (maybe a rounds prop accumulator) and will stick a few SU single/doubles up

Edit -

Browne/Mitrione u1.5 @ 1.57 = £10 returns £15.70
Latifi + Rosa @ 1.90 = £10 returns £19
Blanco @ 1.83 = £10 returns £18.33

Rosa-Bochniak ITD/Cote-Saunders Dec/Barroso-Mutapcic Dec/Cruickshank-Felder o1.5/Browne-Meathead u1.5 @ 14.53 = (free bet) £2 returns £27.24

That's me for the night.
 
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So far:

TJ/Dom over 4.5 big
Latifi by KO/TKO
Cote by decision, Cote SU
A whole bunch of props some of them parlayed, some as singles (I'm too lazy to list them each separately, sorry):
Cruz/TJ starts rd 3
Not Saunders ITD
Pearson by dec
Person/Trinaldo starts rd 3
Browne by sub
Browne/Mitrione doesn't start rd 3
TJ by dec
Fights go to dec over 6.5
Fights go to dec over 7.5
Cote/Killa B FOTN
Wade -3.5
Felder/Cruik starts rd 2
Pettis wins in rd 2
 
Betfair closed down in Canada so had to cash out and start over with a smaller bankroll on bookmaker, bets so far:

Alvarez/Pettis Under 2.5 $20 to win $21
Maximo Blanco $20 to win $15
Wade/Baghdad ITD $10 to win $14
Cruik/Felder ITD $10 to win $8
Bochniak/Rosa U 2.5 $20 to win $15
Gomez $10 to win $18
 
Mainly tailing others from the betting thread. Some betsizes might seem odd, this is mainly because of the injuries that changed some parlays.

1. Mutapcic [By KO] - 0.2u to win 0.6u
1. Mutapcic [SU] - 1.5u to win 0.95u
2. Gomez [SU] - 0.5u to win 0.95u
2. Font/Gomez [u1.5] - 0.4u to win 0.44u
4. Latifi [SU] - 0.5u to win 0.21u
4. O'Connell/Latifi [u1.5] - 0.8u to win 1.08u
5. Cruickshank/Felder [o1.5] - 1.4u to win 0.8u
5. Felder [SU] - 1.8u to win 0.77u
6. Blanco [SU] - 3u to win 2.43u
7. Wade [ITD] - 0.3u to win 0.87u
8. Herman [By DEC] - 0.3u to win 1.47u
8. Herman [+3.5] - 0.7u to win 0.81u
9. Cote [SU] - 1.5u to win 1.58u
11. Browne [SU] - 2.25u to win 1.44u
Co-Main: Pettis [By Sub] - 0.3u to win 1.53u
Co-Main: Alvarez [SU] - 0.9u to win 2.59u
Main: Cruz [SU] - 2.5u to win 3.2u
Main: Dillashaw [SCs = no action] - 1.4u to win 0.97u
Main: Draw - 0.04u to win 6u

Parlay: 4. Latifi + 5. Felder - 1u to win 1.02u

Total Risk: 21.29u to win 29.71u
 
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