UFC on Fox 18 - Post Your Bets!

Oblivian

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This thread is not to discuss the fights or bets as you can do that in this thread: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/official-ufc-on-fox-18-thread.3145819/ Post your bets in here and use the edit function to add to them as you go.

Singles
Barnett: $7.50 to win $4.69 Loss
Ellenberger: $3.75 to win $7.69 Loss
Reis: $3.75 to win $6.38 $10.13
Cyborg: $3.75 to win $3.13 $6.88
Ferreira: $3.75 to win $9.19 $12.94
Alcantara: $3.75 to win $5.63 Loss
Butler: $2.50 to win $6.50 Loss
Bader: $2.50 to win $6.13 Loss
Casey: $2.50 to win $3.75 Loss
Reiswerg: $2.50 to win $3.50 $6
Oliveiri (+3.5): $2.50 to win $2.50 Loss
Medina: $1.25 to win $5.31 Loss
Blodgett: $1.25 to win $3.31 $4.56
Bradley: $1.25 to win $2.50 $3.75

Foxworth: $1.25 to win $3 Loss

Risk of $43.75 $44.26

Parlays
Caceres + Makashvili: $7.50 to win $6.38 $10.28
Gamzatov + Bader/Rumble ITD: $6.25 to win $3.80 $10.05
Firmino + Barnett/Rothwell ITD: $3.75 to win $4.29 $8.04
Field over D. Johnson + Sullivan (+3.5): $3.75 to win $3.20 Loss
Field over Rory (Abu Dhabi) + Reis/Ortiz over 2.5 + Makashvili: $2.50 to win $3.14 $4.19
Field over Day (Farmers) + Freire + Brown/Dwyer ITD: $2.50 to win $2.87 Loss
Field over Day (Farmers) + Freire + Daley + Sage: $2.50 to win $3.02 Loss
Sullivan (+3.5) + Honeycutt/Bradley Dec: $2.50 to win $2.70 Loss

Risk of $31.25 $32.56

RISK OF $75 $76.82

TOTALS FOR 2016: Initial Risk was $165, Running total is $201.56 Running Profit = $36.56 (Approximate ROI for year 10.8326%)
TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $263.68 Running Profit: $168.68 Approximate ROI for year 3.901%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2750.75 Total Profit = $2731.75 (Approximate ROI: 12.8233%)
 
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Bader RD 4: 0.085u +3450
Bader RD 5: 0.065u +4450
U1.0: 0.5u +194

1.85u barnett -185
0.5u O2.5 +140
0.3u rothwell DEC +647 (psuedo hedge)

2.23u rivera -112

3u saffiedine -185

1.5u dwyer +177

1.5u natal -150
0.98 natal-casey O2.5 -140
 
5 units on Rivera @ -170 (First 5/5 Units bet)
2 units on Barberena vs. Nortcutt over 1.5 @ -135
3 units on Martin vs. Felipe under 1.5 @ +130
4 units on Sullivan vs. Yakovlev (Sullivan no scorecards) @ -105

I actually have alot of bets for this event. Will maybe add more of them later on.
 
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Rivera 2.5 U @ +110
1 U Barnett itd @ +173
0.5 U Barnett sub @ +375
1 U Dwyer +170
 
Rumble vs Bader Under 1.5 +125 > 70$
Rothwell Dec +745 > 15$
Rivera -142 > 200$
Rivera Dec +150 > 30$
Rivera Round 3 +1550 > 10$
Saffiedine No Scorecards -150 / -127 > 200$
Saffiedine KO/TKO +415 > 20$
Saffiedine SUB +800 > 20$
Saffiedine ITD +300 > 20$
Natal Dec +200 > 50$
Fullen +250 > 50$
Fullen Dec +503 > 20$

Hail Mary:
$3.00 $11,227.09 Pending 8 Team Parlay
Win 1/23/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3103 Fodor / Firmino goes 3 round distance -190* vs Fight won’t go 3 round distance
Win 1/23/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3203 Foxworth / Willis goes 3 round distance +185* vs Fight won’t go 3 round distance
Pending 1/30/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1203 Rivera / Alcantara goes 3 round distance -155* vs Fight won’t go 3 round distance
Pending 1/30/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1431 Saffiedine wins by submission +870* vs Any other result
Pending 1/30/16 6:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1611 Natal wins by 3 round decision +170* vs Not Natal by 3 round decision
Pending 1/30/16 6:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1711 Ortiz wins by 3 round decision +115* vs Not Ortiz by 3 round decision
Pending 1/30/16 5:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1911 Fullen wins by 3 round decision +503* vs Not Fullen by 3 round decision
Pending 1/30/16 4:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -185* vs Olivieri / Martin goes 3 round distance
 
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So far...

£20 AJ/RB under 0.5 rounds at +360
£12.50 Natal by KO/TKO +650
£80 Barnett -137

I'd like to have six or seven bets per card. I don't pull the trigger anywhere near often enough, last time out bottled a +350 winner twice in about half an hour (Wade sub, Ilir/SOC under 0.5) which fucked me off no end.
 
^^ don't limit yourself. if you like a play, bet it. who cares if you have 7 bets already. altho, don't force yourself, either. if you have too few, don't make unnecessary additions.

let's keep this thread to bets only, just wanted to say that
 
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I veer far too much on the side of too cautious, I know this as a fact. No need to increase stake sizes or anything like that (personally, I never bet more than 2units unless I'm absolutely certain it hits a lot more often than the odds indicate), just have to pull the trigger more often,
 
Saffiedine + AJ 2u @ +102
Rivera 2u @ -139
Dwyer 0,5u @ +180
Natal 1,5u @ -161
OAM 2u @ -250
Barnett/Rothwell O2.5 0,5u @ +137
Northcutt/Barbarena O1.5 1u @ -143
Reis/Ortiz O2.5 + Sullivan/Yak O2.5 1u @ +101
Barnett + Hendricks 2u @ +114
Bader r4 0,05u @ 3300
Bader r5 0,05u @ 4000
Bader dec 0,2u @ +850
 
Pretty much done , Bader Round prop bets are silly prices at sportsbet

Barbarena +280 $25
Bader Round 3 +2200 $12.50
Bader Round 4 +2500 $12.50
Josh Barnett -150 $37.50
Martin/Oliveira under 1.5 $25
Diego Ferreira +235 $12.50
Ortiz -230 $50
 
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