Official UFC on FOX 18 Thread

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So will Hendricks Wonderbot become me? Im guessing Hendricks wont agree to 5 rounds tho.
 
Im going to start doing a £50 'lottery ticket' each show that returns five figures. Anyone ever hit one of these? Liking a parlay on a number of overs for this event that pays four figures i think theres a much better chance it hits than odds suggest.
 
EzFlyer said:
barnett-rothwell seems to be a very contentious fight for us all.

i actually REALLY like (hesitant to say love) barnett at -130 man. hell, i liked it at -185. rothwell finished a couple flakes. he's been looking better physically but i mean, he tapped to gonzaga just 4 fights ago.. he's not too active, himself, and josh looked really solid for 25 mins vs big country after his layoff.

i think barnett is better in the clinch, better on the ground, and think they're kinda even in wrestling and ranged striking.

i think it's going all 3 rounds, even tho it's a hw bout. i actually think barnett sub is only legit chance of a finish for either side.

have some $ on barnett, o2.5, and a lil bit on rothwell dec +6xx as a psuedo-hedge. gonna add to barnett ML when i feel it's done dropping.

i don't get the rothwell love at these prices. not at all.
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I liked Ben a little at opens, not now. I cap Josh around -150 so I think the line is about right. I also think the over/under is priced close to correctly. They are HW's and when HW's land...yeah. Could be a grinding type fight though so maybe fight goes to scorecards has a little value. I think Ben could stop Josh with strikes, Josh could sub Ben (but not sure Josh can get Ben to the mat). Not sure how I'll play it. I put a little on Ben at opens, might just ride with it.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Im going to start doing a £50 'lottery ticket' each show that returns five figures. Anyone ever hit one of these? Liking a parlay on a number of overs for this event that pays four figures i think theres a much better chance it hits than odds suggest.
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I hit one the very 1st time I placed a bet on UFC, for the Silva vs Weidman 2 card. 8 pick parlay, hit everyone, 5 bucks returned like 650 if i'm not mistaken. Cashed out and waited a year to really get into this, if only I knew how much i'd love gambling lol

But I already have a similar parlay for this event, where its like 3 bucks wins 600 and its nothing but overs. Might throw some more on it considering how much I love the overs on this card
 
Ukram said:
I still feel after tape and my bd, OAM is the right pick he is younger, more aggressive and relentless with his grinding take down style, the muscle and power will be the difference over Ferreira I like OAM decision, but think if your going to hedge, ferreira via sub.



Totally in agreement with ortiz via split decision, just makes fights too close but judges like him too bit like natal imo, prefer OAM still after watching tape just the more stronger guy to muscle carlos around for 2 rounds at least but again in a close fight. I noticed that too about rivera and mentioned it in my b/d its odd, if riveria is juicing or not still have to pick the winner I actually prefer riveria ko r1 and if Luri survives r1 I like him to snatch a split decision with his rangy long jabs and MT work.


Levan does get a bit inactive at times, I think he slows down a bit in r2 saving a bit more cardio and energy for r3 he makes fights much closer then it needs due to this style but he has shown some nice take downs and defence more lately, jackson is decent dog with his grinding and relentless wrestling still, I feel both guys cancel each other out well with there own styles, think its going to be a bit lack luster but it goes to decision and the overs hit.
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I don't think OAM will be able to grind CDF as easily as he's looked in his UFC/TUF fights. He's facing a legitmate black belt, not some guy who's afraid of getting taken down by him. By that virtue alone, OAM is already going to have to adjust his style a bit to CDF's strength on the mat. He's going to need to work some of his striking in this fight and he's still green in that department. He 'may' be the better striker, but that remains to be seen and I doubt he's too far ahead in that department. OAM is a pressuring guy cuz guys like Tony Sims are afraid to let their hands go in fear of getting put on their back but CDF won't mind if he gets taken down because he's really good off his back/sweeps. Now, with unified rules the more time spent on your back means you're at a disadvantage so CDF is the clear underdog as OAM has 'shown' the better wrestling so far, but at the current price of +245 I think it's a little ridiculous. I wouldn't even be surprised if CDF is the one to take OAM down, even Lindsay was able to hit a trip in their fight. I'd cap this -170/+130

As far as Jimmie juicing, bro I doubt it lol. He seems like a solid humble dude. The answer I was actually fishing for is, during those decision wins outside of the UFC, were they from wrestling or stand up wars? If anyone can answer that for me I'd appreciate it.

Lastly, for Levan, I think if he loses the 1st round due to inactivity, I think there's a pretty good chance Jackson can snatch a decision which is sitting really pretty right now on 5dimes. I don't really agree with an overly juiced line of -310 for Levan vs a guy who's a very capable grappler. In the end though, my plays are already on the o2.5 but I'm just looking at my 2nd set of bets via props which is how I always play.
 
Joseph Budden said:
I hit one the very 1st time I placed a bet on UFC, for the Silva vs Weidman 2 card. 8 pick parlay, hit everyone, 5 bucks returned like 650 if i'm not mistaken. Cashed out and waited a year to really get into this, if only I knew how much i'd love gambling lol
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Feel like many degens hit a big score with virtually their first ever bet. For me it was the 2005 Mercury Music Prize in the UK, Antony and the Johnsons at about 20/1 +2000 with a £25 free bet sign-up offer. I was 17 and had to borrow my Dad's credit card to withdraw.
 
Bader decision +775

Put down 1.5 u.

I really like this line given Bader goes to decision so often and I expect him to play it safe with lots of grinding/clinching
 
Card said:
Hometown fighters:
- Rivera
- Natal
- Yakovlev and Sullivan
- Makashvili
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Yako is Russian... Natal Brazilian.. Maybe easy travel for them but doubt hometown bias/fans etc
 
Joseph Budden said:
Yakovlev and Natal both live and train in NJ and NY respectively
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I think the point he is making is that although they both live and train in the area they are still both foreigners and are not "from" there. Especially in the Sullivan fight, where he is actually an American in the area. I can't see Yako being a fan favorite
 
Jae Gibbz said:
I think the point he is making is that although they both live and train in the area they are still both foreigners and are not "from" there. Especially in the Sullivan fight, where he is actually an American in the area. I can't see Yako being a fan favorite
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I'm not sure why that would matter though lol and trust me when I tell you as soon as Buffer says they fight out of Jerz the crowd will be with them. EVERYTIME i've been to a UFC and they announce someone from/fighting out of Jerz they get love, especially if the surrounding people are drunk lol
 
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Joseph Budden said:
I'm not sure why that would matter though lol and trust me when I tell you as soon as Buffer says they fight out of Jerz the crowd will be with them. EVERYTIME i've been to a UFC and they announce someone from/fighting out of Jerz they get love, especially if the surrounding people are drunk lol
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I kind of get what you are saying, but I guarantee the crowd will not be on Yako's side
 
100% root for the murican. I'll be one of them. Probably won't be much cheering all night, this card is soo under the radar, not sure why i bought tix.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Im going to start doing a £50 'lottery ticket' each show that returns five figures. Anyone ever hit one of these? Liking a parlay on a number of overs for this event that pays four figures i think theres a much better chance it hits than odds suggest.
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never hit 5 figures parlay but have won a few 1k+ for 2-5 $ bets.. was very close once to win 150k$ lol i only missed by 1 or 2 fights i belive (had manuwa to finish diabate in round2 and diabate quit between rounds i belive :(.. had like 10+ fights all by by outcome like round winner, ko ect
 
i just went back in time and dug it up lol

it was was "only" 50k$ and just missed diabate r3 :eek:

13.00 - Matthew Riddle - To Win By Split / Majority Decision
4.50 - James Te Huna - To Win By Unanimous Decision
2.40 - Gunnar Nelson - To Win By Unanimous Decision
29.00 - Cyrille Diabate - Runde 3 Cyrille Diabate - Jimi Manuwa
4.50 - Cub Swanson - Point
4.00 - Renan Barao - Submission

5.00 for 366444.00 Danish Valuta
 
Joseph Budden said:
I'm not sure why that would matter though lol and trust me when I tell you as soon as Buffer says they fight out of Jerz the crowd will be with them. EVERYTIME i've been to a UFC and they announce someone from/fighting out of Jerz they get love, especially if the surrounding people are drunk lol
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MURICA!
 
EzFlyer said:
several people here are on rothwell, so not everyone

how's rothwell win? and how likely
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Hopefully by decision, but a KO is probably more likely if he does win. I just really like the decision odds.
 
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