Official UFN 82** Thread

[Jae Gibbz]

Noons' looking better than normal, right?

 

[Jae Gibbz]

LOL Engagement proposal

 

[mkess101]

The thing about Wonderboy i dont think he has the power to stop Hendricks, not even Lawler and Condit could hurt him.

If he lands one of his kicks clean he could hurt Johnny. Not sure if WB has enough power in his hands though. Not sure if Robbie ever really landed totally cleanly? If you get hit clean from Robbie and survive you have a granite chin. Condit has HOF chin obviously.

 

[Ukram]

Noons' looking better than normal, right?

ez will confirm it, but yeah I felt noons looked a weight class above him, looked thicker and healthier also.

 

[PuertoRican]

If I didn't already bet so much on the KO line I would have bet the sub line. I think it is close to 50/50 which way he finishes. Actually a bit more likely he finishes with a sub based on his record and the fact that he may want to avoid a striking battle this time around. Anyway I am putting my faith in twitter this time around lolz

Definitely not a 50/50 in how he finishes.

gL with your bet.

 

[Joseph Budden]

If he lands one of his kicks clean he could hurt Johnny. Not sure if WB has enough power in his hands though. Not sure if Robbie ever really landed totally cleanly? If you get hit clean from Robbie and survive you have a granite chin. Condit has HOF chin obviously.

In regards to this discussion of Hendricks getting hurt, I have to believe dipping everytime hes seen on camera is not doing wonders for his chin. I mean, that shit literally deteriorates your jaw over time if i'm not mistaken.

 

[EzFlyer]

fight pass:

white-lobov
white looks very good after the layoff. prolly best he has, actually.
lobov looks a lil better down at 145, but honestly about the same as he did at 155
white is the taller guy, about 2"

gall-jackson
jackson looks alright, i guess. not bad, not great
gall looks decent, too. both guys look ok, but neither looks too strong
they're like the same size

fs1 prelims:

rivas-lahat
rivas looks pretty solid. lil better than his debut, i think
lahat looks pretty darn good. solid.
lahat maybe 1" taller

scoggins-borg
scoggins doing a clay guida impersonation, can't stand still. he's lean as always, but pretty freakin shredded.
borg looks a bit drawn out, but looks like a better cut than last time (and he still dominated that time)
scoggins is 3-4" taller, substantial

grabowski-lewis
grabowski looks decent enough. same as i remember from bellator. in at 235.
lewis is a big fat fatty. same as usual. in at 263.
lewis looks like the bigger guy. 28 pounds on him and yea, just bigger.

burkman-noons
noons back to 155, and he looks ok. better than when 170.
burkman to 155... looks pretty drained to me... he's skinnier, obviously, makes the weight.. he doesn't look bad, but man, kinda frail looking?
noons is maybe 1" taller (he had shoes on)

fs1 main card:

spencer-pyle
spencer looks meh. as always. never impressive at 170, could be 155.
pyle looks ok. same as he has been lately
pyle is 3+" taller

cirkunov-nicholson
nicholson looks decent. rangey guy. (lol, proposal, what the shit? he just proposed)
cirkunov is riddddiculously jacked. biggest 205'er out there!?
they're about the same height.

makovsky-benavidez
makovsky looks excellent as always at 125.
benavidez same deal. maybe a bit drawn out but looks in great shape as per usual.
they're literally the exact same size

feijao-osp
feijao w/more hair than i've ever seen. he looks ok. he's looked worse; he's looked better.
o eth pee looks strong, as per usual. a bit unsteady, maybe tough cut..? not sure on this one
osp 3" taller

rosholt-nelson
rosholt looks the same as always. heavy, but not excessively (for him). 245.
nelson wearing a shirt. guessing he's fat underneath. 258 with shirt on etc.
rosholt prolly about 2" taller (had shoes on, hard to tell)

thompson-hendricks
thompson looks outstanding. long, lean, but pretty damned ripped.
hendricks looks *awesome* for him. lean, ripped. as good as the matt brown fight.
thompson is probably about 3-4" taller (had shoes on, so looked like more)

-----

took a shot at noons +3.5 based on burkman looking frail in first cut to 155. (i have "fight doesn't go 3 rounds" already. so if it goes go all 3, i think kj can take a round, maybe a late round, as a result.

scared of betting anything on grabowski, he's giving up a good amount of size.

 

[manboy<3]

anyone think calvacante is a live dog? His fight against cummings was horrible but it looked like he was injured in that fight and couldn't get out of second gear

Did anyone see him at the weigh ins? did he look like crap or was he moving well?

 

[mkess101]

In regards to this discussion of Hendricks getting hurt, I have to believe dipping everytime hes seen on camera is not doing wonders for his chin. I mean, that shit literally deteriorates your jaw over time if i'm not mistaken.

Man that's a good point. Never even crossed my mind but yeah at some point could be a factor. I don't know any of the science or anything but I've heard the same thing about what it can eventually do to your jaw.

 

[Joseph Budden]

anyone think calvacante is a live dog? His fight against cummings was horrible but it looked like he was injured in that fight and couldn't get out of second gear

Did anyone see him at the weigh ins? did he look like crap or was he moving well?

Yup. Since lines were released, been saying I wouldn't touch OSP ML with how juiced it is and the potential stylistic problems Feijao can cause. Feijao gets in the pocket, its bad news for OSP.

Prob should've just played Feijao ML, but i'm on Feijao by dec I think at +1100. OSP is tough as fuck, not sure hes ever been KOd.

 

[bruthead]

Money showing for Lewis on the Eurobooks, maybe weigh-in related. Still 5/4 +120 with Bet365. Put 4u down to play the line movement.

 

[manboy<3]

Yup. Since lines were released, been saying I wouldn't touch OSP ML with how juiced it is and the potential stylistic problems Feijao can cause. Feijao gets in the pocket, its bad news for OSP.

Prob should've just played Feijao ML, but i'm on Feijao by dec I think at +1100. OSP is tough as fuck, not sure hes ever been KOd.

I dunno about decision Feijao still has killer instinct and a great chin and he Ko'd both Romero and King Mo very quickly when they tried to clinch him so for me It's either Feijo kills OSP in the first round
or not

He's a 1 round fighter and Feijo to win by KO round 1 is at +1200 and for me thats more realistic than win by decision but maybe you are right and he takes the first two rounds from OSP and survives to a decision

 

[Joseph Budden]

I dunno about decision Feijao still has killer instinct and a great chin and he Ko'd both Romero and King Mo very quickly when they tried to clinch him so for me It's either Feijo kills OSP in the first round
or not

He's a 1 round fighter and Feijo to win by KO round 1 is at +1200 and for me thats more realistic than win by decision but maybe you are right and he takes the first two rounds from OSP and survives to a decision

Hmmm. Thats an interesting line. Might play that as well

Decision is definitely not likely but 9 bucks to win 100? For me its worth the risk. OSP almost lasted 3 rounds against Glover and to me Feijao is kind of a bootleg version of Glover.

 

[PuertoRican]

anyone think calvacante is a live dog? His fight against cummings was horrible but it looked like he was injured in that fight and couldn't get out of second gear

Did anyone see him at the weigh ins? did he look like crap or was he moving well?

Yup. Since lines were released, been saying I wouldn't touch OSP ML with how juiced it is and the potential stylistic problems Feijao can cause. Feijao gets in the pocket, its bad news for OSP.

Prob should've just played Feijao ML, but i'm on Feijao by dec I think at +1100. OSP is tough as fuck, not sure hes ever been KOd.

I dunno about decision Feijao still has killer instinct and a great chin and he Ko'd both Romero and King Mo very quickly when they tried to clinch him so for me It's either Feijo kills OSP in the first round
or not

He's a 1 round fighter and Feijo to win by KO round 1 is at +1200 and for me thats more realistic than win by decision but maybe you are right and he takes the first two rounds from OSP and survives to a decision

1. Feijao by decision is laughable.
2. Feijao's cardio has gotten worse over the years, which is probably due to some stuff he might or might not have been taking at one point in time.
3. Feijao looked good against Thiago Silva prior to gassing in the first round, it was weird. Feijao was winning imo, then he just slowed down and Silva took over.
4. Against Cummins, Feijao's cardio looked worse, as he gassed in less than half a round.
5. His fights against Pokerjack and Bader are irrelevant to me, as Pokerjack sucks, and Bader used his wrestling to hold him in the same position during the fight and still never went hard for the finish, which is the opposite of what OSP does.
6. Feijao is 1-3 in the UFC.
7. @manboy, you think Feijao was injured, but do you actually know if he was? I assume you want to believe he was injured because you see juicy plus-odds on a named fighter in Feijao.
8. Feijao KO/TKO +550 (or better), and Feijao round 1 +875 (or better) are the only bets on Feijao that make sense to me. OSP submission +1100 was an awesome line for anyone who got it (I didn't), because I think OSP will submit Feijao.

 

[mkess101]

Money showing for Lewis on the Eurobooks, maybe weigh-in related. Still 5/4 +120 with Bet365. Put 4u down to play the line movement.

Lewis is big but wow he is just AWFUL on the mat. Grabowski has at least decent takedowns and if he puts Lewis on his back it could be a wrap. Unless I'm getting really big + odds, no way can I bet a guy who A) doesn't have really good tdd and B) is terrible once put on his back when he's fighting a guy who's a decent wrestler that will probably be shooting for takedowns from the start.

Maybe Lewis' size advantage alone is enough to let him keep the fight standing but no way are these odds enticing enough to bet him.

I'm playing Grabowski (got him at -115) and the under 1.5. If Lewis wins it's probably an early KO. And Grabowski could also easily put Black Beast on his back, tire him out (which might only take a couple minutes) and finish him there.

 

[kenCs]

Placed a few on the O1.5 Lewis/Grabowski, Kyle dec and Noons dec . I can honestly see that hitting.
£10 to win £735.

 

[EzFlyer]

Lewis is big but wow he is just AWFUL on the mat. Grabowski has at least decent takedowns and if he puts Lewis on his back it could be a wrap. Unless I'm getting really big + odds, no way can I bet a guy who A) doesn't have really good tdd and B) is terrible once put on his back when he's fighting a guy who's a decent wrestler that will probably be shooting for takedowns from the start.

Maybe Lewis' size advantage alone is enough to let him keep the fight standing but no way are these odds enticing enough to bet him.

I'm playing Grabowski (got him at -115) and the under 1.5. If Lewis wins it's probably an early KO. And Grabowski could also easily put Black Beast on his back, tire him out (which might only take a couple minutes) and finish him there.

i'm no black beast fan.

but he doesn't really quit when he gets tired. i'll give him that.

he's only good at one thing -- ground and pound. he's bad on the feet. he's terrible on the ground (besides gnp). but he doesn't just quit.

if grabowski gets tired (which could happen in his ufc debut... ), he could get finished.

in other words, this could look like pesta-lewis

i'm actually against ya, pretty much, but somewhat indirectly, here, mkess
i have:
NOT grabowski itd (small)
grabowski dec (v small)
o1.5 (small)
lewis rd 2 / rd 3 (super small)

 

[molest]

Lewis i feel will also have a huge strenght advantage here.

 

[manboy<3]

7. @manboy, you think Feijao was injured, but do you actually know if he was? I assume you want to believe he was injured because you see juicy plus-odds on a named fighter in Feijao.
8. Feijao KO/TKO +550 (or better), and Feijao round 1 +875 (or better) are the only bets on Feijao that make sense to me. OSP submission +1100 was an awesome line for anyone who got it (I didn't), because I think OSP will submit Feijao.

Yeh I thought he was injured and it looked like a foot injury to me. Even if he wasn't injured he still had good moments against cummings despite it being his worst fight ever

Anyway I'm not banking on Feijao's gas tank in this fight but more on the fact that he can KO anyone that doesnt immedietly go for a takedown and OSP has shown low fight IQ and confidence in his hands. for me this is a better match up than cummings since OSP isnt so obssesed with takedowns

I have Feijao by TKO in round 1 at +1200 and you know it's not a bad bet for a couple of bucks since it's how Feijao won a lot of his fights

 

[mkess101]

i'm no black beast fan.

but he doesn't really quit when he gets tired. i'll give him that.

he's only good at one thing -- ground and pound. he's bad on the feet. he's terrible on the ground (besides gnp). but he doesn't just quit.

if grabowski gets tired (which could happen in his ufc debut... ), he could get finished.

in other words, this could look like pesta-lewis

i'm actually against ya, pretty much, but somewhat indirectly, here, mkess
i have:
NOT grabowski itd (small)
grabowski dec (v small)
o1.5 (small)
lewis rd 2 / rd 3 (super small)

You know, as mediocre as Lewis is standing, I'd probably still give him the edge standing vs Grabowski (when you factor in power and reach).

And Lewis is definitely, well, a beast when he has top position. I just think it's WAY more likely he ends up on his back than that he gets top position.

I think either Lewis lands something big early, or he gets taken down and Grabowski starts working on him. And because Lewis is so inept off his back, the only way he'll be able to stop the gnp will be to take a dumb risk and try to roll or something and give up his neck. Maybe I'm overselling just how bad his tdd and ground game are, but from what I've seen it's bad.