General MMA discussion and future lines - February 2016

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Like that dec price too, especially considering it's a 3 round fight and all of Hectors losses are by dec.
 
Ferg itd +255

I really think he's gonna stop Khabib. Ferg has show good cardio, doesn't seem to slow at all late in fights (in fact picks up the pace). Granted has never been in a 5 rounder but that doesn't really worry me as A) like I said he seems to actually increase output as the fight goes on and B) Khabib hasn't gone 5 rounds either.

It's also 10 more minutes that Khabib potentially has to deal with Ferg's guard or his relentless forward pressure. In a 3 rounder I'd have less confidence that Ferg finds the finish. But 5 rounds trying to take down and control a guy like Ferg seems like too much to ask. Factoring in Khabib's layoff and the fact that Ferg has obviously hit his stride 100% and I think this is a terrific bet. There's times of course I play dogs for value, but this is one of those times I truly think the dog wins and would be completely comfortable betting Ferg at evens (but of course glad I don't have to).

I'm already pretty big on Ferg ML but I had to add to his itd line as well. I am also hedging with Khabib by dec a bit at evens. If Khabib wins I really doubt he stops Ferg.
 
If they open close to evens I will be pretty big on Ken. He still at least looks like an athlete. Ken still feels some pride about fighting and has a chip on his shoulder. I really think Royce is there 100% to collect a paycheck.

i doubt we will get shamrock for evens, he will be a strong fav prob. i'm almost certain he's juicing and he's about 210 pounds, gracie is around 178 and it's not like the fucking old days where the no one had any ground game except the bjj kats. will play shamrock for sure.
 
i really like magny and ferguson at dog odds, especially magny. who knows what clean lombard is gonna be like.

i actually like weidman as well even though i think most people will be on rockhold.
 
I want to play Ferg big but is +175 where it currently sits best price we get do we feel? I think money will come in on Ferg but im rubbish at guessing line movement.
 
I want to play Ferg big but is +175 where it currently sits best price we get do we feel? I think money will come in on Ferg but im rubbish at guessing line movement.
I think it will get better but im also terrible at predicting line movement lol.
 
I have 8 units on Hunt over Mir. Hunt is only -170 and I don't think there's any way Mir wins that fight. Hunt is a better wrestler, Mir can't really wrestle at all, and Hunt kills him in the standup.
 
I have 8 units on Hunt over Mir. Hunt is only -170 and I don't think there's any way Mir wins that fight. Hunt is a better wrestler, Mir can't really wrestle at all, and Hunt kills him in the standup.

I took Hunt + Breese a while back @ around -120. Just hope Hunt is back in Thailand for this camp. My only concern is Mir dropping for a leg think he tried that against Reem.
 
I took Hunt + Breese a while back @ around -120. Just hope Hunt is back in Thailand for this camp. My only concern is Mir dropping for a leg think he tried that against Reem.

I have Breese on a parlay with Silva and Mousasi. I think Hunt's good enough on the ground to survive a brief exchange, and Mir usually goes to that as a desperation move without having solid position or setup.
 
I don't mind Mir at +150. I genuinely feel if he can stand up with Arlovski and tag him a few times as well as figure out his striking patterns, he can stand up with Hunt who is a little predictable with the bombs. He's also got a pretty good chin (he got hit alot by a roided up Reem but stayed in it). And if Frank can take Hunt down which is quite possible particularly later on in the fight then he could definitely get the sub
 
7 props for the mir/hunt fight up on 5dimes.
hunt by decision @11.75
 
I don't know what Khabib's normal training pattern is so this may be normal and maybe he will fly over to AKA in a week or so. But he has started his camp in Bahrain. Potential red flag for me.
 
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