Official UFC fight night 83 Thread

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I need a good night after Bellator. Fuckin' Shamrock and the under 1.5 on Kimbo/Dada.
 
Donald Cerrone (28-7 MMA, 15-4 UFC) vs. Alex Oliveira (14-2-1, 1 NC MMA 3-1 UFC)

Cerrone -295, Olivera +245

It's going to be a hoedown showdown for sure -- inside the octagon on February 21 -- when the American Cowboy takes on the Brazilian Cowboy in a tilt to determine once and for all which buckaroo has the right to mind the ranch and don the Stetson with pride.

The longstanding WEC/UFC veteran Donald Cerrone is a ultra-diverse mixed martial artist who had pieced together a remarkable eight fight win streak en route to challenging champion Rafael dos Anjos for the 155 pound LW title in his last outing. Unfortunately Cerrone would fall short in a mere 66 seconds of action as the champion landed a brutal strike to the liver that sent the American crumbling to the canvas unable to continue. Nevertheless, Donald has built a cult following due in large part to his Bud Light swigging Everyman persona buttressed by his "take on all comers" bravado. As such, during his march toward title contention, "Cowboy" wasn't on a proverbial Joe Louis "Bum of the Month Cub" fight tour, but was instead stacking bodies made up of the divisional elite in what seemed like a once a week affair. Indeed, finishes of B+ talent like Evan Dunham and Edson Barboza began his run where he would go on to pick off A+ level talent including Eddie Alvarez and Benson Henderson along the way. That said, as good as Donald is, he has had two cracks at the lightweight champion and has came up deuces on both tries. This Faber-esque inability to seize gold on multiple occasions has left the popular fighter in a bit of a lightweight purgatory. As a result, Donald is going to attempt to resurrect his career 15 pounds north of his usual weight class and try his hand in the welterweight division. Already a large 155 pounder, the 6'0" tall Cerrone isn't going to be giving away any notable size advantages as a welterweight but will rather be an average size competitor for the division. Moreover, with his long lean frame he'll be able to put muscle on it and should fill out nicely. Physical attributes aside, Donald is a Muay-Thai wrecking-machine with top shelf Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a granite chin who should have no problem picking up wins in whatever division he so chooses to compete.

Brazilian "Cowboy" Alex Oliveira burst on the International scene when he was a last-minute replacement opposite the highly touted prospect Gilbert Burns on March 21, 2015 at UFC Fight Night 62. Flying way under the radar Oliveira came into the bout a superheavy underdog closing at +575 to the undefeated Burns were it was anticipated but he would be blown out in the first frame. Subsequently, the Brazilian cowboy would indeed go on to lose a third around submission, but not before tuning up the highly touted Brazilian prospect in the first two stanzas forcing Burns into needing a desperation third round finish to win the match. Summarily, Oliveira would acquit himself well having ostensibly won the opening 10 minutes of the match as a short notice replacement. No longer a blip on the radar, the 27-year-old Oliveira's Muay-Thai striking is deadly and while he is just a Bluebelt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, his competency on the mat far exceeds his rank in the grappling art. At 5'11" tall with a 73 inch reach, the Brazilian has a sizzling kickboxing game with power in all four limbs. On the outside the Brazilian is an absolute sniper and with his deceptive strength he is a beast in the clinch as well. Incessantly initiating action, there simply is not an area in which you are safe with this kid. Indeed, he is consistently on his front foot marching you down begging for a fight. That's just it, the Brazilian absolutely loves to fight. A rarity in modern mixed martial arts, Oliveira competed five times in 2015 -- going 4-1 -- and he has not fought less than four times in a year since 2011.

This is a difficult fight to predict given that both men have fight ending power, are in the prime parts of their career, and are fighting in a weight class they are not accustomed to. Like Donald, the Brazilian has also been a natural lightweight competitor for most of his career with sparse appearances above the 155 pound limit. As such, neither man will have a distinct advantage given that both will be competing in somewhat foreign territory. With all that said, I do believe at the end of the day that it is the original "Cowboy" from Albuquerque, New Mexico who has the more diverse skill set and is a bit more clean with his technique. Therefore he has more ways to get the job done and better chance at ending the fight. Essentially, as long as Donald comes into the bout highly motivated -- with his head screwed on straight -- it is his fight to lose. Still yet, there are far too many variables for me to be comfortable in the pick and if I were betting on the scrap it would be a dog or pass scenario.

Prediction: Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone earns his spurs via submission (arm-bar/triangle choke)

Good stuff GF. Im intrigued to see how B Cowboy approaches this fight. He grappled both strikers he has fought and stood with two grapplers. Cerrone has a big advantage on the mat so i really hope he tries to grapple Cerrone. Either way tho i favour Cerrone wherever this fight goes.
 
Anthony Smith (24-11 MMA, 0-1 UFC) vs. Leonardo Augusto Leleco (11-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC)

Smith -140 vs. Guimaraes +130​


Stepping in on short notice for Trevor Smith, Anthony Smith makes his much earned return to the UFC the weekend. After competing just one time in the octagon and losing to submission specialist Antonio Braga Neto, the UFC chose to part ways with the Strikeforce and Bellator veteran. Falling short in his initial outing outside of the UFC, "Lionheart" went on to mow down his next seven consecutive opponents. A versatile mixed martial artist, Smith has 22 finishes with an equal 11 coming via submission and knock out respectively. At 6'3" tall with a 77 1/2 inch reach, Smith is a long and rangy 185 pounds lighter. A Muay-Thai striker, Smith is savage in the clinch as he lets loose with an array of tight slicing elbows and copious knees to his opponent's abdomen. From the fringe, the 27-year-old uses his gangly reach to throw a looping left hook and a quick overhand right which are accentuated with kicks to all levels.

Entering in his UFC debut on the heels of a seven-fight win streak comes Brazil's' Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes. Better known as "Leleco" the Brazilian has finished nine of his eleven victories with six coming via submission and the other three by knockout. The only bout that he has failed to finish in those last six occasions -- save for a No Contest -– was a battle against 2-fight UFC vet Richardson "Monstro" Moreira in which he was awarded a win via split decision. Guimaraes is a submission grappler with a pretty tight Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game though he has a mediocre wrestling attack which limits his use of it at times. Accordingly, while Guimaraes was able to carve his way through a veritable grocery aisle of tomato cans on the regional circuit in Brazil, when he faced off against an upper-echelon talent in 'Monstro' he failed to hit the same easy takedowns he had been accustomed to getting. Worse still, the striking from the UFC debutante is even more raw as he hangs his hands and charges in recklessly slinging wild overhand rights with his chin both straight in the air when he attacks. Consequently, this leaves him ripe to be countered. While he appears to have a bit of potential to work with, right now 'Leleco's' overall MMA game is just too green to be at the UFC level and if he hasn't progress exponentially I believe that he will have a short lifespan inside the octagon.

In their match up Smith will enjoy a 4 inch advantage in the height and reach department respectively while being the far more diverse combatant. Additionally, the American is quite athletic with excellent footwork and will likely be able to thwart the takedown attempts from his Brazilian adversary. Even showed the absolute worst happen and smith be taken down by the Brazilian, I believe that his defense of grab flame is good enough to stave off any submission and allow him to work back to his feet where he maintains a marked edge. This bout has all the makings of a triumphant return to the big leagues for Smith as I envision him using his long reach to remain outside of the Brazilians grasp while busting him up on the feet before ultimately handing out a free nap in the form of a highlight reel right-hand.

prediction, Anthony Smith via knock out (round one)
 
i agree with you on bermudez, i think his athleticism is going to be the key factor in this fight
 
I need a good night after Bellator. Fuckin' Shamrock and the under 1.5 on Kimbo/Dada.

Well I hit on Kimbo + Campos + Vassell and still have I parlay with Kimbo + Sarafian

HOWEVER I lost a couple hundred dollars on shamrock/Gracie as I could not believe the referee stopped that fight when he did! Texas always has some kind of mixed martial arts or boxing fuckery ...I do give the ref just a slight benefit of the doubt (emphasis on slight) because of the delayed reaction… That said, it's not the fighters responsibility to drop to their knees or call a time-out (which is illegal)... it is the referees job to being in position to see the fouls. That said, MMA desperately needs instant replay! This is 2016 and we should be using every technological asset to our advantage.

Ultimately I won 7.24 u on the night but feel bad for anyone who lost money on shamrock (i.e. Me )

And to lose on the KS/DD5K u/o is just as tough to swallow… rarely do you see a fighter gas and yet their opponent was too gassed to finish them...AT HEAVYWEIGHT!! And AFTER just ONE round LMAO
 
Anthony Hamilton (+100) / Shamil Abdurakhimov (-110)


Following a near year-long layoff from the sport, 35-year-old UFC heavyweight Anthony Hamilton returns to the cage this weekend where he will attempt to put together consecutive victories for the first time in his four fight UFC career. Coming off of a successful performance against Daniel Omielańczuk in April 2015, Hamilton is desperate to build some momentum given his advanced age and current state of the division. Entering the UFC with a bit of hype behind him, Hamilton was 12-2 and the reigning Maximum Fighting Championship (MFC) Heavyweight titlist and winner of six straight fights. After losing his Octagon debut, the gargantuan 6'5" tall 253 pound giant of a man has gone on to alternate wins and losses in the promotion since 2014. Fighting out of Albuquerque, New Mexico where he trains out the estimable Jackson-Wink MMA facility, "Freight Train" -- as he is so appropriately known -- was a standout high school athlete competing and starring in both football and wrestling respectively. Light on his feet for a big man, Hamilton is a heavy-handed striker with a big overhand-right and heavy ground-and-pound who has finished seven of his opponents via knockout. Additionally, the former collegiate wrestler is a Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who is not much of a submission threat offensively but knows how to stay out of danger defensively.

Opposing the American is 6'3" 255 pound Dagestani wrestling powerhouse Shamil Abdurakhimov. The 34-year-old Russian mixed martial artist is a five time Russian National Champion in the sport of Sanshou (or Sanda) which is an offshoot of the Chinese martial art Wushu. The discipline is also comparable to the Russian Combat Sambo; that of which we are accustomed to seeing Eastern European MMA fighters bring with them into the octagon. As with Combat Sambo, the art of Sanshou includes close range and rapid successive punches and kicks, with wrestling, takedowns, throws, sweeps, kick catches, and in some competitions, even elbow and knee strikes. A master of the art, Abdurakhimov is a tricky fighter who is difficult to prepare for due to his awkward movement. Effective in the standup department or on the mat, the Russian is a diverse mixed martial artist whose record highlights his versatility. With fifteen professional matches, he has finished eleven of his opponents with four coming via submission and seven via knock it out. The one liability that Abdurakhimov's opponents have exploited in the past is over aggression and lack of a consistent takedown defense. In fact, in his UFC debut we saw a mediocre Timothy Johnson utilize his wrestling ability to bring Abdurakhimov to the mat where he was I moved to quickly pass his guard and achieve the mount were he was able to posture up and rain down strikes to finish him. If the Russian has failed to improve his takedown defense exponentially, he is going to be in a lot of trouble against Hamilton who in my opinion is a step up in competition from the aforementioned Johnson.

Hamilton has solid takedowns and proficient fundamentals in the wrestling department which is going to be the decisive role in the match. Hamilton excels in the grappling game and has the potential to follow the Timothy Johnson blueprint and exploit these fissures in his game once again. Make no mistake, his issues with takedown defense were a one time thing in the UFC as the Russian giant had the same problem in his losses to -- the glacially slow -- former Bellator heavyweight Thiago "Big Monster" Santos. and veteran mixed martial artist and former King of the Cage LHW and HW titlist Tony Lopez. I anticipate that the Jackson-Wink trained Hamilton will come in with a clever game-plan that involves employing his NJCAA All-American wrestling skills to ground Abdurakhimov and pull off the minor upset.

Prediction: Hamilton via unanimous decision
 
Thanks for the write ups, GF. You're liking all favorite picks except Hamilton & Strickland near evens this time, eh?
 
Thanks for the write ups, GF. You're liking all favorite picks except Hamilton & Strickland near evens this time, eh?

For his picks yeah, but these aren't his bets. For example he's picking Cerrone to win via sub but calls the bet dog or pass.

I skimmed over that part and noticed the same thing, then realized he's just breaking the fights down and predicting who wins and how. Not posting his bets.
 
For his picks yeah, but these aren't his bets. For example he's picking Cerrone to win via sub but calls the bet dog or pass.

I skimmed over that part and noticed the same thing, then realized he's just breaking the fights down and predicting who wins and how. Not posting his bets.

I skimmed most of it and read the predictions in the footers so I understand now. But this then begs the question- what are your bets Goodfella? Do we have to be premium members to get those, lol? :p
 
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Good stuff GF. Im intrigued to see how B Cowboy approaches this fight. He grappled both strikers he has fought and stood with two grapplers. Cerrone has a big advantage on the mat so i really hope he tries to grapple Cerrone. Either way tho i favour Cerrone wherever this fight goes.

Thanks sham

What put me over the top for Cerrone was technique and sound fundamentals. For a while, I was actually leaning towards the Brazilian Cowboy because I think she has a very diverse skills with the more nimble footwork which capris a lot of problems for the American Cowboy… That said, from the footage that I watched for homework (and I watched a ton of it) I made the switch off of him for good b/c he gets hit far too often and comes in with his hands down and head straight up leaving him ripe for a Donald HHK. Moreover, if this bout hits the ground he is going to get absolutely mauled.
 
I skimmed most of it and read the predictions in the footers so I understand now. But this then begs the question- what are your bets Goodfella? Do we have to be premium members to get those, lol? :p

They are hidden inside the articles like Mayan Codes...you need the be Alan Turing to get for free

But seriously I've been given my clients more free picks than they pay for..if I have a losing event they get my picks for free...I'm a terrible tout lol


Thanks for the write ups, GF. You're liking all favorite picks except Hamilton & Strickland near evens this time, eh?

right now yea..though I would keep my eyes peeled for dogs like Riggs and Kawajiri..though I see both losing
 
For his picks yeah, but these aren't his bets. For example he's picking Cerrone to win via sub but calls the bet dog or pass.

I skimmed over that part and noticed the same thing, then realized he's just breaking the fights down and predicting who wins and how. Not posting his bets.


Well Mkdess..my Ol' homie, I'll put my PICKS on here ITT for free .. Though you guys have been clobbering me lately. So be careful what you ask for me Lol ... No, I have won 5 out of the last 7 and 6 of the last 9 MMA events ...but boy Ol' boy was my last UFC event a doozy of an ass-whoopin' ...but anyone
who paid for that card got the last two weeks free ( all of my bets) and I am +43 units in that time… Like I said I am a terrible tout b/c I feel bad if I lose someone's money ..terrible tout I am
 
Guys how do you edit a title on here in this new format?
 
Goodfella, and others...

Garcia vs. Strickland - odds flipped
Smith vs. Leleco - super short notice for Smith

What say you?
 
mendes vs cody under 2,5 -117 @ betsafe looks pretty good to me.. noticed 5d and most books have the line set at un 1,5

*just 1 decision between them in 13 fights or 2 in 19 fights if we count in the amateur fights
*mendes short notice, making his ufc debut and missing weight (cardio problems maybe)
*cody should be light years ahead of him in the striking department
 
Goodfella, and others...

Garcia vs. Strickland - odds flipped
Smith vs. Leleco - super short notice for Smith

What say you?

smith had a fight on jan 29 and went to camp with SBG on feb 3, i dont think the short notice will have much effect on him
 
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