Official UFC fight night 83 Thread

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I'm on O5.5 decisions, the first 3 fights could easily go decision then you need 3 more in 10 fights. I see brunson and cody fight probably going itd and sarafien fight going ITD for sure but other then that others could easily decision

I see some finishes, too. But it's a 13 fight card that is supposedly in a big cage. I remember reading a stat that mentioned 60% of all fights in the big cage go to decision. Ofc there are many factors at play and those numbers are about 2 years old, but I still think it holds weight.

I'll take my chances

oh, no doubt. i am normally all over O5.5 at evnes on a 13 fight card

but i think the MOST likely decisions are

kawa bermudez
riggs camozzi
krause campbell
strickland garcia
webb coy
murphy-faszholz

and none of them are certainties (i think strickland-garcia is most likely decision of the 6(13) (even tho murphy fasz is priced the most likely)

SUPER unlikely decisions imo:
smith-guimares
bangbros-sarafian

and could go either way imo:

brunson-carneiro
mendes-garbrandt
reneau-evanssmith
hamilton-abdur
cowboy vs cowboy

how would you break it down? (i'm aware there are grey areas on all of these, tho i personally don't think the two fights i listed for NO decision are just that, no decision)

(wiggle basically broke it down already, i see that)
 
oh, no doubt. i am normally all over O5.5 at evnes on a 13 fight card

but i think the MOST likely decisions are

kawa bermudez
riggs camozzi
krause campbell
strickland garcia
webb coy
murphy-faszholz

and none of them are certainties (i think strickland-garcia is most likely decision of the 6(13) (even tho murphy fasz is priced the most likely)

SUPER unlikely decisions imo:
smith-guimares
bangbros-sarafian

and could go either way imo:

brunson-carneiro
mendes-garbrandt
reneau-evanssmith
hamilton-abdur
cowboy vs cowboy

how would you break it down? (i'm aware there are grey areas on all of these, tho i personally don't think the two fights i listed for NO decision are just that, no decision)

(wiggle basically broke it down already, i see that)
lol I like how we got you saying "bangbros"

Anyway, I'm not going to break it down as much as you did, but here's how I see it

Good shot at going to a DEC:
Fights 1-4
Fights 7-10

That's 8 fights right there

I don't think will go to a DEC:
Cowboys
Bangbros
A. Smith/Leleco

Who the hell knows if it goes DEC, prob not:
Brunson
Garbrandt
 
lol I like how we got you saying "bangbros"

Anyway, I'm not going to break it down as much as you did, but here's how I see it

Good shot at going to a DEC:
1-4 fights
7-10 fights

That's 8 fights right there

I don't think will go to a DEC:
Cowboys
Bangbros
A. Smith/Leleco

Who the hell knows if it goes DEC, prob not:
Brunson
Garbrandt

You guys really think Brunson/Carneiro isn't likely to end itd? I'm not saying I'd drop dead from surprise if it did but I think Brunson's style is gonna lead to a finish way more often than not. He rushes in with punches and has a significant speed and power edge standing. Most likely outcome is Brunson by KO/TKO imo.
 
You guys really think Brunson/Carneiro isn't likely to end itd? I'm not saying I'd drop dead from surprise if it did but I think Brunson's style is gonna lead to a finish way more often than not. He rushes in with punches and has a significant speed and power edge standing. Most likely outcome is Brunson by KO/TKO imo.
Huh? I lean towards it going itd, ez thinks it can go either way, and wiggle thinks it goes itd.. None of us said we lean towards it going DEC lol
 
It's all good. You must've misread them too lol

Right on. I actually hit the o 5.5 at evens just like you and took exactly 6 fights go to dec at +321. I think it's gonna be right in that neighborhood, 6 or 7 going to dec.
 
Not a fan of Evans-Smith looking so much bigger then Reneau but liked how people looked other then that.
 
Right on. I actually hit the o 5.5 at evens just like you and took exactly 6 fights go to dec at +321. I think it's gonna be right in that neighborhood, 6 or 7 going to dec.
I actually took exactly 5 fights going to a decision at +321 as a psuedo hedge to o5.5. But exactly 6 has a good shot at hitting
 
Not a fan of Evans-Smith looking so much bigger then Reneau but liked how people looked other then that.

yea, that has scared me off my reneau play, man. plus OMFG it still hasn't budged. unreal!! -175 reneau has been the same price ALL WEEK! c'mon, people, bet evans smith so that i can have reneau evens, camannnnn
 
I see some finishes, too. But it's a 13 fight card that is supposedly in a big cage. I remember reading a stat that mentioned 60% of all fights in the big cage go to decision. Ofc there are many factors at play and those numbers are about 2 years old, but I still think it holds weight. I've also hit the last 2 oX.X props in big cage events, even hitting some of the +200/+300 ones

I'll take my chances
Doesn't someone ask the size of the cage before every event? Someone always answers, and it's usually the same person. It's one of you guys who has a name that begins with the letter J.

Anyway, from what I can remember, big cages are used for cards with title fights, PPV cards, and FOX cards. Small cages are used for Fight Night and TUF cards.
 
ahhhh, alright. i've been trying not to force the o/u event bets etc, but i'll stab at over decisions since the 5.5 is such a low # for evens at 13 fight card.

fotn i'm going a bit square: 0.25u cowboys, 0.125u campbell krause

(i have a hunch it could go to a.smith-guimares, but since it prolly ends early, i guess the payout isn't enough)
 
Doesn't someone ask the size of the cage before every event? Someone always answers, and it's usually the same person. It's one of you guys who has a name that begins with the letter J.

Anyway, from what I can remember, big cages are used for title fights, PPV cards, and FOX cards. Small cages are used for Fight Night and TUF cards.
It's always me that answers it when it's a title fight, PPV or Fox card. Because they are always big cage.

TUF Finales and fight nights are only candidates for small cages. And usually if it's a small arena. This is supposedly a pretty big arena
 
It's always me that answers it when it's a PPV or Fox card. Because they are always big cage.

TUF Finales and fight nights are only candidates for small cages. And usually if it's a small arena. This is supposedly a pretty big arena

Yep. Small arenas want that extra space for seating since those are the premium priced seats on the floor.
 
wtf smith ko/tko just jumped from +330 to +650 lol i am hitting that for sure.. i think this is very likely to hit. smith got some power.. leleco has a good chin but very poor striking defence
 
Was gonna skip this event but going with Cerrone and Kawajiri singles + parlay.

What's the rationale on Kawajiri? Seems like everything he does well, Bermudez just does better these days. I get that Dennis is juiced pretty big but betting on Kawajiri is betting on an aging grinder (albeit one who's looked pretty good lately) against a younger more athletic guy who can actually play the grinding game better. I don't think Kawajiri can score takedowns and if he can't I think he's pretty much screwed here.
 
wtf smith ko/tko just jumped from +330 to +650 lol i am hitting that for sure.. i think this is very likely to hit. smith got some power.. leleco has a good chin but very poor striking defence
Great catch, I'm with you on that
 
bamgbose getting hammered, sarafian down to -150...

think faszholz is getting bet a bit, too (not as pronounced)

and so the fight day line movement begins..
 
wtf smith ko/tko just jumped from +330 to +650 lol i am hitting that for sure.. i think this is very likely to hit. smith got some power.. leleco has a good chin but very poor striking defence

Thanks for the heads up. Just hit that. Great odds and Smith can definitely find that chin.
 
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