General MMA discussion and future lines - February 2016

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come on. castillo drops the kid, ref stares there, does nothing.. 10-8 first.. ahead in 2nd round.. gets clipped once, so he takes him down... and armbarred. nice sub. whatever.

such an annoying night
 
Connor McGregor to hold No UFC titles on 1st January 2017 @ 6.00


like this one
 
Parlayed Moises, Jackson, Boku and Santos at +260ish. Moises was def my biggest worry, what a fight that was. Wish I jumped all over Jackson more, Moreno is such a regional journeyman.

Worried about Boku, he's old as fuck.

EDIT wooo
 
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Overeem vs Arlovski announced! Any guesses for an opening line?
 
sounds high

I think the absolute best case opener you can hope for with Overeem is -250. And I don't think it will be that good. -300 sounds right.

People have short memories. Overeem is on a little winning streak now and stopped JDS in his last fight. AA was stopped early by Stipe and before that arguably lost to Mir in a snoozer.

It's HW so laying big juice...yikes. Overeem was super juiced vs Bigfoot, Browne, etc. I'd personally cap it right abotu -300 so might just be a pass.

(Yeah right. As if I won't convince myself by then that there's value on SOMETHING in this fight LOL).
 
Stipe/Werdum what are we thinking? Werdum -200? -250?
 
I will be huge on Stipe if he gets anywhere near +200. Realistically I think Werdum will be around -140 to -160

I'd be the opposite. Werdum's striking has improved dramatically. Stipe is a good striker too but some of that is because he's an athletic guy with good takedowns that his opponents need to account for. Werdum has the advantage of not having to worry about being taken down. In fact he'd love it if Stipe did. I'd bet Werdum up to probably -200 so I really hope you are right.
 
there is some new lines up on betsafe for Fight Night Finland 12 its on before the ufc event on saturday

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http://www.mmaviking.com/valamaa-gets-opponent-for-fnf-12-headliner/

i took Valamaa and Dizy

Valamaa looks pretty well rounded.. always agressive looking for the clinch and takedowns and pretty good cardio. could not find that much footage on his opponent he is tall, southpaw and seems to like submissions (Valamaa never been subbed) in the footage i could find he did not seem to have good takedowns though and very low output on the feet.. he has 13 fights and not a single win against a fighter with a winning record.

Dizy come's from the talented french camp mma factory lost a decision to Caldwell in bellator in his fight but was 5-0 before that he looks pretty good in all aspects of mma, good speed, good standup and great timings on his takedowns. his opponent looks pretty good too he is very tall for the 155 weight class he has good takedowns, kicks and decent jab horrible standup defence though.. i think Dizy will be able to land the takedowns on the taller opponent and grind out a decision.
 
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I will be huge on Stipe if he gets anywhere near +200. Realistically I think Werdum will be around -140 to -160

line is already out on betvictor
werdum: -300/1.33
stipe: +225/3.25
 
line is already out on betvictor
werdum: -300/1.33
stipe: +225/3.25

Ahh dammit that means 5d will be similar and I will not see much value either way.
 
rumours about wonderboy - rory in the making
 
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