Official UFN 84 Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
If you're betting to win money you need to throw out this whole idea of betting longshot parlays. It's essentially using a lighter and burning money. I hate this notion that bettors get caught up on that if the parlay hits they'll win big. There's a reason why parlay's are considered "sucker bets". $harp bettors who've been in this game know not to play them. If you have to parlay do so only with a 2-3 teamer. The last thing you want to do is give the books an edge and this is what you're essentially doing by betting these longshot parlays. I've stopped betting parlays and it's been one of the best +EV decisions I have done as a $harp.

-Barry

You're a god.
 
To put it simply, parlays are great if you are a good bettor and bad if you are not. All parlays do is amplify your skills as a bettor. If you suck you will crumble, if you're good you will be heavily rewarded.
 
I usually like the over prop bets for decisions but I honestly don't like them for this card. Only 3 fights I think are truly "likely" to go to dec. Mousasi/Leites, Rustam/Parke, and Jotko/Scott. I think there's 4 others with a very reasonable chance of going to dec (meaning 40% to 60% chance imo). Silva/Bisping, Meza/Allen, Danho/Omie, Gouti/Packalen. To me, everything else is more likely to end itd. Probably 1-2 of the ones I think end itd don't, but that said of the above 7 it's possible only 2-3 go to the cards. Wish the odds were better for under 4.5 fights go distance. At +550 or so I'd see really nice value. At +385, meh. Just gonna leave it alone.
 
I think all the fights up to Allen/meza could possibly go to decision. I've never seen any of them fight but just going off what I see online (no tape was watched lol)


Woke up a little while ago to use the bathroom and now I can't sleep. Hope I don't fall asleep at like 11 and miss this card! I don't feel like putting my bets in right now either
 
I bet all you euro guys are happy to finally have a card at a normal time. Gonna be a bit weird watching UFC at 4pm today lol. I'm used to them ending at 12 or 1am now compared to finishing at 7
 
ufc on at 12:45 ET tomorrow, fyi, like 6 hours earlier than normal. (so like 12.5 hours from now) if anyone's unclear

Good point for everyone else non brits, you guys can enjoy the crazy schedules !

so nakamura SUB is up to +1798 on bm (and +1500 on 5d) -- i mean.. this is how he wins, right?

i'm a believer in breese. but this has to be worth a stab, no?

Always he has 52% of his wins via a sub, maybe smaller flyers on r2/r3 sub props at even better odds.

I just don't see how anyone could be betting against Makwan. He looked like a cat playing with an injured mouse when toying with Guerin. He was calm under pressure in that fight, as well as vs. Duquesno (nasty brabo BTW). His shots are explosive, going for doubles and singles. He also has good grappling and trips. Combine that with explosive athleticism (i.e. flying knee), a 2-3" height advantage, and a great assortment of ways to finish (bicep slicer anyone?), and this doesn't seem close. His plan is clearly to take Wilkinson down and sub him.

Meanwhile, Wilkinson has a bad habit of planting his feet when rushed. And he got taken down (and dropped) by fucking Artem Lobov, a guy who definitely prefers to stand and bang. On top of that, he apparently has a low fight IQ - why in the hell would he take down Rony Jason?

Makwan will sub Wilkinson. Book it.

Glad got the same thoughts as yourself, I did notice makwan had 2 decisions recently before joining ufc and they were average/poor fighters but otherwise he is usually r1 sub, r2 finish kinda guy. I don't think we see an ogle flying knee though more likely a grappling work out for makwan + sub.
 
I'm assuming big cage since 120 was in a big cage? Has anyone found confirmation?
 
I'm assuming big cage since 120 was in a big cage? Has anyone found confirmation?
They only use small cage for arenas that seat less than 10,000. Will be normal cage.

As an American, I love when they accommodate Europe. Its kind of cool watching a UFC event from 1245-6 EST, nice change of pace
 
They only use small cage for arenas that seat less than 10,000. Will be normal cage.

As an American, I love when they accommodate Europe. Its kind of cool watching a UFC event from 1245-6 EST, nice change of pace
Yeah, don't mind the early start at all actually.
 
Anderson down to -220, wonder if he'll get to -200 or lower lol, if so ill have to put more money on him even though I don't really got much on him. He can't like bisping much for calling him a cheat and a pussy
 
Breese Sub +625 on bookmaker seems kinda nuts? breese itd is -376 and he actually has more subs then ko's on his record
 
Teemu Packalen now the favorite
 
Nam Pham pick Silva to win.

Im big on Silva.

0.5 on Bisping now... :rolleyes:
 
They only use small cage for arenas that seat less than 10,000. Will be normal cage.

As an American, I love when they accommodate Europe. Its kind of cool watching a UFC event from 1245-6 EST, nice change of pace

What to do the rest of the night now?? Lol. Today's my birthday so I will be putting them in the air all day :cool:

By tonight I will be like this guy > :confused:

Lol
 
Good morning guys, ready to bet got no sleep and 3 redbulls. Let's Get It!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top