Official UFC 196 Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Just hammered it, had to take +265 but love this bet. I think the odds on this bet are:

Bet wins: 25%
Bet pushes: 70%
Bet loses: 5%

Conor even attempting a TD would shock me. Great line.

Agreed. Good price right now. Hit it up while its still good odds.
 
Just hammered it, had to take +265 but love this bet. I think the odds on this bet are:

Bet wins: 25%
Bet pushes: 70%
Bet loses: 5%

Conor even attempting a TD would shock me. Great line.
Yeah pretty shocked we're the only two seemingly on this. Can't believe Conor to have more got bet. Is the hype train really that serious? I would def say 5% AT MOST is our chance of losing

EDIT see cagebrain has joined us
 
While I I have a hard time seeing Diaz taking Conor down, I agree it is a great line. I was too caught up in that other conversation to comment on this
 
What do you think the chance of it winning is though? 25% i feel might be a high estimate. Fro example if its 15% win 5%loss the breakeven odds would be +300. So in that calculation it would be a good bet... where is the estimate?? 20%?
I think mkess hit the nail on the head, i'd maybe adjust that to like 17% we win, 80% push, 3% loss
 
shevchenko getting bet a bunch.. she's down to +110 5d, +100 bm..

yet shevchenko +3.5 still only -140.. hasn't caught up w/the ML
 
shevchenko getting bet a bunch.. she's down to +110 5d, +100 bm..

yet shevchenko +3.5 still only -140.. hasn't caught up w/the ML
I was basically going to make this same exact comment earlier. I hit the +3.5 and DEC for that reason

EDIT: Nunes R1 back to +300
 
Yeah pretty shocked we're the only two seemingly on this. Can't believe Conor to have more got bet. Is the hype train really that serious? I would def say 5% AT MOST is our chance of losing

EDIT see cagebrain has joined us
For the value of the line to be +EV, Conor would have to have a 2.65 times greater chance than Diaz of getting more TD's. At your estimate of 25% win, 5% loss, we estimate Diaz having a 5 times greater chance of getting more (given its not a push). At that estimate, the correct line would be -500, and its +265. Pretty damn good value there.
 
Diaz routinely lands 85 strikes a round, Mcgoat a lot too +30-40.. If you think Diaz can survive for a while this should be interesting to you. Took it small at +170.
 
My rationale on 25% is that Nate is this:

A) Nate knows his best chance of winning is getting it to the mat
B) While not a good wrestler, Nate is the bigger guy. He might be able to just drag Connor down at least once. And given we all agree how unlikely it is that Conor even attempts one, we probably only need one to win.
 
For the value of the line to be +EV, Conor would have to have a 2.65 times greater chance than Diaz of getting more TD's. At your estimate of 25% win, 5% loss, we estimate Diaz having a 5 times greater chance of getting more (given its not a push). At that estimate, the correct line would be -500, and its +265. Pretty damn good value there.
Yeah was definitely expecting money to come in on Diaz, not the other way around. Makes no sense but i'll take it
 
Diaz routinely lands 85 strikes a round, Mcgoat a lot too +30-40.. If you think Diaz can survive for a while this should be interesting to you. Took it small at +170.
I already did the calculations using their significant strike averages. There's obviously other factors involved but it should take approximately 1.74 rounds for the over to hit
 
I already did the calculations using their significant strike averages. There's obviously other factors involved but it should take approximately 1.74 rounds for the over to hit
Yup. assuming they land their average sig strikes. Honestly it could be even higher than average since they are likely to trade and no one is gonna run.
 
Yup. assuming they land their average sig strikes. Honestly it could be even higher than average since they are likely to trade and no one is gonna run.
+ they are both hittable and durable. Def on board with you guys on the over
 
Yup. assuming they land their average sig strikes. Honestly it could be even higher than average since they are likely to trade and no one is gonna run.
Yeah, that's pretty much built in to what I said (Other factors involved, approximately). For reference the o2.5 pays +170. We almost get a .75 round discount
 
Watch the Nate TD line flip, then we all have the option to bet the other side and auto profit (except if it pushes... grr)
 
Watch the Nate TD line flip, then we all have the option to bet the other side and auto profit (except if it pushes... grr)
Surely some money HAS to come in on Nate at the current price. But i'm def expecting a push when all is said and done lol
 
Loving these wacko props. Always fun to analyze them and almost always have value.
 
i can't get a read on the td's prop. just can't. i think conor is clearly the better wrestler (cause nate's wrestling is terrible). but he's -265. that said, he's unlikely to for any... it easily could push at 0-0, hehe.

i agree w/the general sentiments about the O86.5 strikes being decent. arguably better than O2.5 rounds at a similar price. cause likely doesn't need 2.5 rounds to hit.

getting nervous on that "no glove touch" prop.. conor does it a lot... it's more about diaz not doing it...
 
i'm buying out of my small bet on the glove touching lol. i wish i bet more at -210 so that it was significant, i just would rather focus my energies on something more substantial
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top