Official UFN 86 Thread - Croatia: JDS vs Big Ben

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I think Gonzaga has value. Lewis is not good on his feet and his TDD Is not the best.
Buuuut Gonzaga does not have a great chin and his gastank sucks. I could see BB getting a TKO in the 3rd.
Im playing manbearpig small at +odds.


Completely lost on JDS and Rothwell.

On 1 side Rothwell striking is no good but the man is a walking iron-chinned punching bag with 1 punch KO power. He will walk through anything you land in order to land some of his own.
He also puts a lot of pressure on guys and with his new found submission game I think most his opponents are going to avoid any kind of grappling exchange with him. He just subbed Warmaster ffs.

On the other side I think JDS is better than he showed last fight. Despite being TKOed by Reem, the punch that put JDS on his ass would have finished any HW, and JDS was not even out. People shit on him and talk about him being shot and that is just not true.
His offensive game might have been on a decline and he could be a little slower than before but he is still a though guy to finish.

Tell me who the fuck survives this:
tumblr_nzn0jcFvH11upwz95o4_400.gif


This is a bad matchup for JDS but I think he still has some left in the tank. IDK where he did his camp (ATT is not working!!!) but if he puts a good performance he can beat Rothwell.
 
I don't think that JDS has to worry about Rothwell's submissions as he won't shoot in for a takedown like Mitrione and Barnett did and has solid TDD. Rothwell is hittable so I think JDS can box him up.
 
JDS is 1.99 on Ohmbet which seems to be a new decent euro bookie for MMA, they got a lot of MMA options right now. Just deposited 1000 SEK with a 100% bonus and put it all on JDS and hedged it up with Rothwell for 2.10 @ Bet365.

Seems like a pretty decent free profit, the bonus are 100£ for the rest of you europeans but you need to play it on at least 2.0, but I guess you could combine it with MM or something like that.
 
Dirtey said:
JDS is 1.99 on Ohmbet which seems to be a new decent euro bookie for MMA, they got a lot of MMA options right now. Just deposited 1000 SEK with a 100% bonus and put it all on JDS and hedged it up with Rothwell for 2.10 @ Bet365.

Seems like a pretty decent free profit, the bonus are 100£ for the rest of you europeans but you need to play it on at least 2.0, but I guess you could combine it with MM or something like that.
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The terms of their 100% bonus promotion is REALLY bad. You have to wager your bonus x11 times to make any withdrawal, this stays even if you lose your bonus amount. On top of this, you have to wager x11 times in only 30 days times on odds 2.00 or higher or you lose your bonus pool. Their lines are pretty juiced aswell.
 
Wonder if odds taking long could indicate the oddsmakers are still trying to do their homework on these lesser known guys. Could've been an advantage for us, if only I did my homework :(

Surely they'll be up by tonight though? That would be my guess.
 
Agent Mulder said:
The terms of their 100% bonus promotion is REALLY bad. You have to wager your bonus x11 times to make any withdrawal, this stays even if you lose your bonus amount. On top of this, you have to wager x11 times in only 30 days times on odds 2.00 or higher or you lose your bonus pool. Their lines are pretty juiced aswell.
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The swedish deal had a bit better terms, only x8 and you can do it on 1.70 or higher. So if I hit the initial 2000 SEK bet on JDS it should be fine and if I don't I still win a lot compared to what I deposited on Ohmbet.

Either way, JDS @ 1.99 on Ohmbet is a pretty sweet line compared to other euro bookies if you lean that way.
 
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mkess101 said:
I'm on Ben too. Basically I think the two beatings JDS took from Cain aged him a ton. He looked SLOW vs Stipe and not much better vs Overeem.

I've said it before and I'll keep saying it. At HW, durability means SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much more than at lower weight classes. I will take a less skilled guy who's more durable at HW every time and end winning more than I lose.
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Honestly JDS has always been hittable. He's just always had great durability. Just go back and watch his fight with Mir(UFC's channel just put it on youtube a few days back). Mir even tags him several times, the problem for Mir is that JDS just ate them and wasn't phased.

JDS relied way too much on his ability to just eat shots in order to deliver shots. That isn't to say he has no defense, because he does. He was very good at dodging and rolling with punches at one time. I just don't think the 500+ shots Cain force fed him have left him in the same capacity to absorb damage. Rothwell has about as good a chance as anyone to give JDS a second straight loss.
 
Wtf gonzaga down to +110 from +160.

wish i had more stake at that line. stupid ass me
 
Lewis' ground game is non-existent.
Him opening as a decent sized favorite is a joke.
He was losing to an undersized Pesta before catching him.
Lewis was just laying there on the ground, any decent heavyweight with BJJ would have put him away easily.
The Grabowski win earned him more hype. Sure he was winning, but most of the punches he landed were blocked and it was a premature stoppage. Can't really value that win that big.
At +160 Gonzaga had good value, I think there is still value at anything above evens.

Also like Cummings against Dalby.
Really can't get behind non-UK European prospects.
He didn't look great against Santos.
He was losing against Till, but showed good heart to manage a 10-8 round.
Most of his fights are against Danish fighters.
He has never faced anyone the caliber of Cummings, yet he's the favorite?
I don't get it.
 
Davemeddlehed said:
Honestly JDS has always been hittable. He's just always had great durability. Just go back and watch his fight with Mir(UFC's channel just put it on youtube a few days back). Mir even tags him several times, the problem for Mir is that JDS just ate them and wasn't phased.

JDS relied way too much on his ability to just eat shots in order to deliver shots. That isn't to say he has no defense, because he does. He was very good at dodging and rolling with punches at one time. I just don't think the 500+ shots Cain force fed him have left him in the same capacity to absorb damage. Rothwell has about as good a chance as anyone to give JDS a second straight loss.
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Yep, agree. He's always been hittable but the difference was in the past he could eat one shot to land one (or more) of his own. And his terrific offensive striking game was overwhelming enough to hide any defensive holes he had (along with his chin). But his reflexes, handspeed, and overall movement have slowed noticeably. He's just not the same guy imo.
 
UFC Fight Night 86: Rothwell vs. Dos Santos
April 10, 2016 | Zagreb Arena | Zagreb, Croatia

MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 2pm ET)

Ben Rothwell +110
Junior Dos Santos -150

Over 1.5 -140
Under 1.5 +100
—

Gabriel Gonzaga +125
Derrick Lewis -165

Over 1.5 +130
Under 1.5 -170
—

Francis Ngannou +100
Curtis Blaydes -140

Over 1.5 -125
Under 1.5 -115
—

Timothy Johnson +150
Marcin Tybura -190

Over 1.5 -165
Under 1.5 +125
—

Igor Pokrajac +265
Jan Blachowicz -385

Over 1.5 -120
Under 1.5 -120
—

Cristina Stanciu +180
Maryna Moroz -260

Over 1.5 -165
Under 1.5 +125
—

PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX Sports 1, Noon ET)

Zak Cummings +135
Nicolas Dalby -175

Over 2.5 -215
Under 2.5 +165
—

Damir Hadzovic +200
Mairbek Taisumov -280

Over 2.5 -180
Under 2.5 +140
—

Alejandro Perez -120
Ian Entwistle -120

Over 1.5 +145
Under 1.5 -185
—

Filip Pejic +100
Damian Stasiak -140

Over 2.5 -180
Under 2.5 +140
—

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 10:30 a.m. ET)

Robert Whiteford +110
Lucas Martins -150

Over 2.5 -130
Under 2.5 -110
—

Cyril Asker +150
Jared Cannonier -190

Over 1.5 -135
Under 1.5 -105
—

Alessio Di Chirico +130
Bojan Velickovic -170

Over 2.5 -215
Under 2.5 +165
—

whiteford +110? man need to look up so many of these guys, tho

anyone know much about
di chirico
asker
pejic
hadzovic
stanciu


kinda like o1.5 perez-entwistle +145, tho!
 
pokrajac-blachowicz o1.5 -120 i like, too
 
small plays on
ngannou +100 (partially for line movement feeling)
entwistle-perez O1.5 +145
whiteford +110
blachowicz-pokrajac o1.5 -120

so far

man i don't know the people on the fights i haven't bet yet :(

slacked off in preparation
 
EzFlyer said:
small plays on
ngannou +100 (partially for line movement feeling)
entwistle-perez O1.5 +145
whiteford +110
blachowicz-pokrajac o1.5 -120

so far

man i don't know the people on the fights i haven't bet yet :(

slacked off in preparation
Click to expand...
Entwistle ML/o1.5
Velickovic ML


Moroz and Johnson o1.5s?
 
Is Tybura legit? I expected him to open up as a slight underdog at the very least, with Johnson being -150 or so.
 
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