UFN 89 - Wonderboy vs Waterboy - 6/18 - Ontario

[piglord]

i have a few very strong leans on this, mainly on the low key fights that i doubt most people are eyeing. For me WB/rory and cote/cerrone are pure freeroll territory if i'm profitable. could no way put a confident bet on right now for either fight..

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Posted it before but (as much as I hate to say it since Cowboy has become one of my favorite guys to watch) I think the play is absolutely Cote by dec. at +298. Cowboy is a slow starter and often gives away rd 1. It's only a 3 round fight. Both guys can take a shot just fine, and Cote has come such a long way from his days when he was lost on the mat. The way he controlled Killa B on the ground was super impressive. Cote is a legit grappler now. We know Cowboy is.

I think this fight will be very competitive, with both guys having their moments. But given Cowboy's propensity to start slow and the fact that Cote has very good boxing and should be able to land some punches throughout, I think all of the value is on Cote by dec. Hard to see either guy stopping the other and I like Cote as the naturally bigger guy to get the W.

Yup, I agree. I'm on Cote ML, DEC, and NSC. The fight is in Canada too, fwiw

 

[oliverinsix]

i have a few very strong leans on this, mainly on the low key fights that i doubt most people are eyeing. For me WB/rory and cote/cerrone are pure freeroll territory if i'm profitable. could no way put a confident bet on right now for either fight..

Care to share your thoughts on the leans you're looking at or are you going to wait for the lines to release?

 

[Sham5916910]

Advice pls guys bearing in mind im greedy but trying to be sensible.

I have £795 on wb @ +130. I have a £50 parlay to win £1300 that i just need wb to close. What would you do?

 

[piglord]

will wait for the lines man.

 

[EzFlyer]

Advice pls guys bearing in mind im greedy but trying to be sensible.

I have £795 on wb @ +130. I have a £50 parlay to win £1300 that i just need wb to close. What would you do?

How confident are you

 

[edole]

I actually love cote at that price.

I also have a hard time finding a path to victory for Rory...he is not going to outstrike wonderboy, and will have an uphill battle trying to drag him to the mat

 

[EzFlyer]

I actually love cote at that price.

I also have a hard time finding a path to victory for Rory...he is not going to outstrike wonderboy, and will have an uphill battle trying to drag him to the mat

Kinda disagree.. I think a: he can drag him there at some point(s)

I think his path is clear: either get the tds or make it a marathon

 

[kenCs]

Does anyone think Cote gets better than +140? I have a very strong lean for Cote. I believe he will be digging power shots into his liver and they will take their toll on Cowboy especially since Cote is the bigger man. I think Cote may actually finish this but im hoping to get a better line.

Also what will Barcat line be like? If its -190 or better Imma super smash it.

 

[mkess101]

Kinda disagree.. I think a: he can drag him there at some point(s)

I think his path is clear: either get the tds or make it a marathon

I like WB here, but I'm still trying to sort out my confidence level LOL. Rory has solid striking and showed vs Robbie that he can take some punishment, but WB is just so precise with his striking and has such good stopping power that I wonder if Rory can survive long enough to make it a marathon or get his td game working. I think what WB did to Hendricks was no fluke, his confidence is soaring and he may be realizing he can trust his td defense (or ability to get back up anyway) enough to really let his striking flow (even more than before). And when he does, he's just a nightmare to deal with.

I guess the other thing is that although Rory is a good wrestler, he still (similar to GSP) relies on mixing up his striking and wrestling to a degree. Both feed off each other. But in this fight I think he's seriously overmatched standing (again, no knock on him I think pretty much everyone at WW is overmatched standing by WB right now, Robbie included) so I'm pretty hesitant to think Rory can just shoot telegraphed doubles from the outside and have any success. And if he tries to close distance and get body lock or figure out other ways to drag it to the mat, he's risking getting his face caved in as he navigates the distance. Because WB is superb at gauging distance and timing his strikes.

I might be underrating Rory's standup a bit though. I've watched some video and so far WB looks to be a pretty superior striker to Rory but I need to watch a bit more.

 

[Sham5916910]

How confident are you

Pretty confident but my head is telling me to hedge enough to cover the money i have on wb. If wb wins i still win around £1500 instead of 2.2k if i dont hedge.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Pretty confident but my head is telling me to hedge enough to cover the money i have on wb. If wb wins i still win around £1500 instead of 2.2k if i dont hedge.

I'd hedge. Still great profit, and leans aside Rory has unquestionably been a top 3 WW for years and years now. Not a guy to overlook

 

[edole]

Kinda disagree.. I think a: he can drag him there at some point(s)

I think his path is clear: either get the tds or make it a marathon

When has Rory ever shown strong offensive wrestling?? He has very solid takedown defense and largely relies on being the more technical kickboxer in his fights -- which doesn't seem like an effective strategy given his opponent.

If Johnny Hendricks was unable to implement his wrestling game on wb, I have no reason to believe that Rory will be able to.

 

[Joseph Budden]

When has Rory ever shown strong offensive wrestling?? He has very solid takedown defense and largely relies on being the more technical kickboxer in his fights -- which doesn't seem like an effective strategy given his opponent.

If Johnny Hendricks was unable to implement his wrestling game on wb, I have no reason to believe that Rory will be able to.

Rory is a great wrestler in terms of MMA. Besides the Lawler rematch, I think hes taken down everyone he has tried to, including Tyron Woodley which is no small feat at all. Just different styles, Hendricks relies on getting in the clinch and chain wrestling where as Rory can much more effectively use striking to set up shots from different ranges.

 

[iGnP]

Pretty confident but my head is telling me to hedge enough to cover the money i have on wb. If wb wins i still win around £1500 instead of 2.2k if i dont hedge.

it's a close fight, you'd hate yourself if you hedge and WB wins or if you dont hedge and Rory wins. if it were me and i was up a decent amount leading up to the fight, id let it ride. if i were down and need the money to make up some losses, id hedge

 

[Sham5916910]

it's a close fight, you'd hate yourself if you hedge and WB wins or if you dont hedge and Rory wins. if it were me and i was up a decent amount leading up to the fight, id let it ride. if i were down and need the money to make up some losses, id hedge

Yeah good point might hold fire and see how ive done on lb.

 

[oliverinsix]

Considering how much they've trained together in the past, it'll be interesting to read into the sound bytes leading up to this fight to try and tease out any subtle information about any advantages one guy thinks he has over the other. Remember GSP saying awhile back that Wonderboy was the best striker he had ever seen.

 

[Ukram]

I have always liked WB striking and major improvements come each fight, it was that cote fight where he shined so well, WB had some excellent timing and range with his jabs and I liked how he just avoided most of the damage, it reminded me cote has come a long way also just that WB was able to use his reach and height so well, but considering he is a 5 time kickboxing champ he has always been on a high level.

I feel WB gets the job done, rory is no slouch though but its been a year since robbie broke his face and nose and rory still bears a slight mark there.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cj8lEviXIAAW9c2.jpg

Rory also has been training with a karate expert (Jonathan Doucet) for this camp shown here:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CjV9fCSWYAAEoJ7.jpg

 

[AgentSmecker]

Only Cote and the Barncat jump out at me right now. Don't know a lot of the guys on this card and WB v Rory and JoJo v letourneau are both extremely tough ones to call.

 

[EzFlyer]

Does anyone think Cote gets better than +140? I have a very strong lean for Cote. I believe he will be digging power shots into his liver and they will take their toll on Cowboy especially since Cote is the bigger man. I think Cote may actually finish this but im hoping to get a better line.

Also what will Barcat line be like? If its -190 or better Imma super smash it.

i don't think it would be crazily steep. jotko isn't a gimme.