Rory. I dare say inside the distance as well.
I feel like it's fairly even with a slight lean towards Rory, but there are a few x-factors.
1) Is Rory the same mentally after that Lawler fight?
&
2) Will thompson be able to handle a striker of his equal, especially without having the height and reach advantage that he's used to?
&
3) Does Thompson have anything to offer defensively (or offensively) if it ends up on the ground in a scramble.
As long as Rory isn't damaged and/or gunshy now, i think his experience is going to be the big difference here. Even if Thompson is successful early, and he may very well be, Rory should be able to hurt him or pressure him at some point, and from there I think Thompson will fold and Rory will take over.
Unless Thompson can hurt Rory and capitalize early, i don't think he has much of a chance other than MAYBE out pointing him if he's not pulling the trigger.
I honestly don't know what to tell you if you think Rory is an "equal" striker to Wonderboy. He's...just not. It's not really even that close. Rory is solid. Has decent kicks, a nice jab. But he's just levels below Wonderboy. Timing, accuracy, power, ability to gauge and use distance, creativity, speed, all are advantages for Wonderboy.
It's not that there's no path to victory for Rory, there is. But Thompson isn't going to have to handle any strikers that are his equal at WW, because they don't exist. Nor do they at MW most likely.
Again, that's not to say Wonderboy can't lose this or other fights. But if Rory is content with a striking match here and doesn't try to grind, clinch, take WB down etc. he's gonna get pieced up.
The real questions in this fight are actually:
1. Can Rory close distance effectively to make this a dirty fight without getting his face caved in? Can he make it ugly?
2. If Rory does take Wonderboy down, how long (if at all) does it take Wonderboy to get up? Can Rory control him on the mat for long stretches, and can he do damage there?
3. (This is similar to your #1). Is the trajectory real? Wonderboy obviously looks like his is skyrocketing after a string of wins including a signature win over a top ranked WW. His confidence is at an all time high and confidence can be a great asset if channeled properly. Rory's is flat but it may just not be that he's mentally still affected by the Robbie fight. That type of war takes a real physical toll.
I honestly don't think Rory will have an answer against a superior striker. I think he'll be looking for ways to get inside and ends up getting caught and put away at some point.