UFN 89 - Wonderboy vs Waterboy - 6/18 - Ontario part II

[kenCs]

Okay I stand corrected. I rewatched and you guys are right, he did rocked there by WB.

That said, he still survived and that's against maybe the best striker in MMA. Cowboy doesn't have that kind of power, or even close probably given that he's a natural LW.

Anything is possible, but -515 is still a very good price imo. 32 pro fights for Cote, never been stopped by strikes. His only KO/TKO loss was the weird knee injury vs Silva. Very, VERY hard to see Cerrone being the first guy to do it.

What people don't realise is the WB has amazing hands aswell as power. Sure it may not took thundering like a Hunt shot but his angles over the shoulder and timing drops guys. Cote felt it, Brown felt it and Whittaker felt it. Its just not as flashy as his kicks and people tend to forget that.

Cote was hurt but he really did his best when he was hurt in the second. Cote may have one of the GOAT chins in MMA.

 

[mkess101]

Sakara almost killed cote

Sakara has fought at LHW a few times right? And I'm trying to remember how that fight went. I know it ended in a DQ, can't remember the start of the fight.

But again, from a pure power standpoint, Sakara is basically bringing LHW power vs Cerrone's LW power.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Not Cerrone itd at -192 is pretty damn nice

 

[mmaday4day]

Jesus Meunier looks a weightclass bigger in that pic

True, but he did have his shoes on ;-)

 

[mkess101]

What people don't realise is the WB has amazing hands aswell as power. Sure it may not took thundering like a Hunt shot but his angles over the shoulder and timing drops guys. Cote felt it, Brown felt it and Whittaker felt it. Its just not as flashy as his kicks and people tend to forget that.

Cote was hurt but he really did his best when he was hurt in the second. Cote may have one of the GOAT chins in MMA.

Great point about WB. And it's another weapon for him in that the thing guys are going to want to do is use pressure and close distance. And with the timing, power, and accuracy he has in his hands the margin for error when closing distance on him is extremely small.

 

[mkess101]

I'm really trying to find an advantages at all that Calderwood has over Val. Cardio seems even maybe? That's honestly the best I can come up with. Jo has heart and toughness, but is she really gonna win a round in this fight? I feel like the play here is Val -3.5 at +190. I think she either wins an easy decision or maybe even finishes.

Someone give me a good counter to why this isn't better than paying the juice on Val's ML. Judges do weird stuff of course but this is a big line difference.

 

[iGnP]

does anyone think Herrera is worth a stab?

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I'm really trying to find an advantages at all that Calderwood has over Val. Cardio seems even maybe? That's honestly the best I can come up with. Jo has heart and toughness, but is she really gonna win a round in this fight? I feel like the play here is Val -3.5 at +190. I think she either wins an easy decision or maybe even finishes.

Someone give me a good counter to why this isn't better than paying the juice on Val's ML. Judges do weird stuff of course but this is a big line difference.

Just play Val ML with a smaller play on the -3.5. Think that's best for you

 

[Joseph Budden]

does anyone think Herrera is worth a stab?

Contemplated it so hard. Surprised how few touts give him a chance. I'm heavy on the over or else I would've stabbed, at current price I think hes worth it

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Not Cerrone itd at -192 is pretty damn nice

Yup. Been on this, myself.

 

[kenCs]

I'm really trying to find an advantages at all that Calderwood has over Val. Cardio seems even maybe? That's honestly the best I can come up with. Jo has heart and toughness, but is she really gonna win a round in this fight? I feel like the play here is Val -3.5 at +190. I think she either wins an easy decision or maybe even finishes.

Someone give me a good counter to why this isn't better than paying the juice on Val's ML. Judges do weird stuff of course but this is a big line difference.

I wanna smash her ML so hard. Best bet on the card imo. Calderwood has nothing on her.

 

[kenCs]

Man Cote and Val are the best bets on the card.

 

[iGnP]

Contemplated it so hard. Surprised how few touts give him a chance. I'm heavy on the over or else I would've stabbed, at current price I think hes worth it

Ali is on a two fight losing streak (granted, against the top of the division) and i just feel like he would be very motivated to get back in the win column here. If you had to pick, do you like Ali -3.5 (+110) or Ali by Dec (-113) better?

Man Cote and Val are the best bets on the card.

Don't forget about Saggo

 

[AffectEffect]

Hey guys, great discussions in here.

Personally I like the movement on Cowboy, gonna to wait to see where it bottoms out.

Even a great chin like Cote eventually cracks, and cote has been rocked plenty of times, even by Noke. If Donald lands a clean head kick I think Cote could be koed/tkoed. Not saying that this will happen or anything, but not tko -500 that someone posted seems very dangerous imho.

I agree with Cerrone that Cote's standup is pretty shallow. Personally I don't think Cote deals with kickers well (his last 2 loses came to kickers), like Wonderboy and Cung le, I could easily see cowboy landing a big knee same way Noke did too, Cowboys Kicks and knees are the best aspect of his game.

 

[mkess101]

I wanna smash her ML so hard. Best bet on the card imo. Calderwood has nothing on her.

Yeah I have Val's ML but I'm sitting here thinking +190 and it covers Val by stoppage, Val by dominating decision, and even something like 30-27, 29-28, 29-28 for Val. So even if Jo gets a round on two judges cards (which I honestly have a hard time seeing happen) this would still cover.

F it, I'm hitting this for a decent bet. Now officially REALLY need Val to dominate tonight LOL.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Ali is on a two fight losing streak (granted, against the top of the division) and i just feel like he would be very motivated to get back in the win column here. If you had to pick, do you like Ali -3.5 (+110) or Ali by Dec (-113) better?


Don't forget about Saggo

I'm really impressed with Herrera and think he could neutralize Ali's path to victory. I'm convinced he has a good shot of out boxing Ali, just comes down to if he can avoid the takedowns or scramble to his feet fast enough to take the rounds. I would definitely pick Ali dec over the -3.5, i'm expecting a close fight.

Hearing Silva moved to ATT before the Efrain fight has been the biggest confidence decrease. If only Saggo was still -200 i'd be hedging with Silva dec, but letting it ride

 

[Card]

Soto is taking this fight on short notice.. Beal was supposed to fight Yamamoto

 

[iGnP]

Hey guys, great discussions in here.

Personally I like the movement on Cowboy, gonna to wait to see where it bottoms out.

Even a great chin like Cote eventually cracks, and cote has been rocked plenty of times, even by Noke. If Donald lands a clean head kick I think Cote could be koed/tkoed. Not saying that this will happen or anything, but not tko -500 that someone posted seems very dangerous imho.

I agree with Cerrone that Cote's standup is pretty shallow. Personally I don't think Cote deals with kickers well (his last 2 loses came to kickers), like Wonderboy and Cung le, I could easily see cowboy landing a big knee same way Noke did too, Cowboys Kicks and knees are the best aspect of his game.

great first post

 

[mkess101]

Hey guys, great discussions in here.

Personally I like the movement on Cowboy, gonna to wait to see where it bottoms out.

Even a great chin like Cote eventually cracks, and cote has been rocked plenty of times, even by Noke. If Donald lands a clean head kick I think Cote could be koed/tkoed. Not saying that this will happen or anything, but not tko -500 that someone posted seems very dangerous imho.

I agree with Cerrone that Cote's standup is pretty shallow. Personally I don't think Cote deals with kickers well (his last 2 loses came to kickers), like Wonderboy and Cung le, I could easily see cowboy landing a big knee same way Noke did too, Cowboys Kicks and knees are the best aspect of his game.

Good feedback, but again 32 pro fights for Cote, never been stopped by strikes. And plenty of those against MUCH bigger guys who hit much harder than Cowboy.

Another reason I think the line has value: Even if Cowboy were to land a head kick that really hurt Cote, Cowboy will often use that as an opportunity to sub hunt and finish that way. So even if he does land and have Cote in trouble (unlikely imo, but of course possible), he may not opt to finish with strikes.

 

[waiguoren]

Someone give me a good counter to why this isn't better than paying the juice on Val's ML. Judges do weird stuff of course but this is a big line difference.

You answered your own question.

Plus, those props are not really an option for bigger bettors. ML and OU are all they got.