TUF 23 finale - JJ vs gadelha II - Las Vegas

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thesharktank said:
Stabbed myself at +2000 and +2600 for .25units each. I got on Claudia right before her precipitous drop in odds, but Im really liking JJ at even money. JJs TDD has come a long way since their first fight IMO. As has her experience in 5 rounders and confidence. She should be the favorite here.
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This being Claudia's first five round fight is definitely a big factor here. IMO if you think Claudia wont have too much success taking JJ down, maybe look at the -5.5 line for JJ, its currently at + odds. Claudia's best chance to get a takedown is obviously earlier in the fight so if you have the capability to live bet, that may be another way to get value on JJ as she's more likely to win later rounds. Esparza was much smaller than JJ too so i think JJ's improved TDD might have a bit of an asterisk next to it. IDK im really undecided on this fight

edit: Gadelha +5.5 at -240
JJ TKO +400 as a hedge
JJ rd 4 + 5 and stabs are prob my plays. all small.. too unpredictable to bet a decent amount on
 
The analyst in me would say. Joanna keeps this on the feet after stuffing TD after TD in the first 2/3 rounds then starts to dominate for a late finish in round 4 or 5 but I think Gadelha has heart and wouldn't be finished. Joanna dec is also good. BUT I have been doing great job yesterday by going with the flow. I really think Gadhela pulls off a sub after a TD. Im sure thats her gameplan but we'll see. BOL to you brothers.
 
EzFlyer said:
so JJ NSC went from -2xx to -135 just now.. i'm in on -135.

also, out of nowhere, not that i expect this to hit, but pearson SUB went to +4330 from like +1600, lol. 5 bux, baby!
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Dude, JJ NSC -135 is a gift. I loved/maxed the -148. I got on it There is no way this should be close to the moneylines. JJ NSC should be -200 minimum, imo
 
$43 for $495

JJ NSC
Sanchez
Maynard
Matthews NSC
Jingliang ITD

On all of these as singles, too
 
JJ at pick 'em odds is fucking ludacrous, i'm going banana man on that shit if my maynard bet hits.
 
The revisionist in me is looking at JJ last couple of fights and questioning how impressive were those wins? We saw Valerie get clobbered by Calderwood and Penne get beat even quicker by Andrade. Is there a chance that we got carried away on the strength of JJ's last couple of performances?
 
iGnP said:
JJ in round 4 and 5 is +1700 and +2000. I guess Claudia could gas in championship rounds and the volume of JJ could overwhelm her for a stoppage. Anyone think it's worth it? For what it's worth, I dont really play long shots like this just for the hell of it, but these bets seem kinda likely (at least more likely than odds indicate)
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yea i'm on those, too.
 
so i was leaning gadelha the past couple months. and i sure as hell want her to win as a fan.

but i think JJ is the favorite in a 25 min fight. think gadelha will get takedowns early, fade late. buying out of my small gadelha action with these pick'em odds.

i'm also influenced by how they look, honestly.. i think claudia looks smaller, JJ looks stronger (than their previous fight form)

liking that JJ NSC -135 from last night, still.
 
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iGnP said:
JJ in round 4 and 5 is +1700 and +2000. I guess Claudia could gas in championship rounds and the volume of JJ could overwhelm her for a stoppage. Anyone think it's worth it? For what it's worth, I dont really play long shots like this just for the hell of it, but these bets seem kinda likely (at least more likely than odds indicate)
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jj to win r5 is +3300 on bet365
 
yea i kinda like both tuf fights chances for FOTN

205 final +585
W115 final +850
 
Anyone knows the different between wins by points & wins by decision at William Hill.

This is there explanation 1:
Upon checking the difference between the two markets is that on round betting Claudia on points is they would depend on the points of Claudia in every round if its higher than the other fighter. Then the other one which is the method of result is Claudia to win in decision.

This is there explanation 2:
Yes, as we are all under the impression of in Decision, it will be based on ''Points''. However if we will see on the Results of each fight, we will able to see the winning selection of the fight, if it is by Points or Decision.

It sound the same to me but the odd is huge different!
Maybe Claudia have to win every round like 50-45 if by pts for +275 odd?
 
^^ agree with both, but I'm playing the girls +850. Better price and the LHW could be over fairly quick, or lets just say "quicker"
 
mmaHobbyist said:
Anyone knows the different between wins by points & wins by decision at William Hill.

This is there explanation 1:
Upon checking the difference between the two markets is that on round betting Claudia on points is they would depend on the points of Claudia in every round if its higher than the other fighter. Then the other one which is the method of result is Claudia to win in decision.

This is there explanation 2:
Yes, as we are all under the impression of in Decision, it will be based on ''Points''. However if we will see on the Results of each fight, we will able to see the winning selection of the fight, if it is by Points or Decision.

It sound the same to me but the odd is huge different!
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Pretty sure on BM "points" is the same as decision. Not sure how will hill does it tho
 
tuf props fully up

hitting sanchez +350 sub

looking at cooper +3.5 +160 and/or suarez sub +285

lil stab on c.hendricks sub +525, too
 
fuck gambling on the amateur tuf fighters, i don't have a death wish. gonna try to be very disciplined tonight.
 
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