UFN 91 - Lineker vs McDonald - South Dakota

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I'm the opposite, Chookagian is a natural 125 pound fighter coming up in way to tangle with a very strong Lauren Murphy who could very well be undefeated in the octagon. Murphy is 9-2 and the former Invicta Bantamweight champion. Furthermore, losing by two back-to-back nail biters — that could have gone either way — to Sara McMann and Liz Carmouche bear no shame.I think Murph has finally found her footing after getting a much-needed victory over Kelly Faszholz earlier this year. Make no mistake about it I do believe that Chookagian is the more technical of the two and has a future in the UFC just not as a Bantamweight. Expert Murphy to bring her high intensity style right at the newcomer and overwhelm her in the clinch — and on the mat — with volume to win a close but fairly clear cut unanimous decision.
I have a feeling you're already gonna b/d Mayday/Lineker so I'm gonna ask you for your thoughts on Nguyen/Smolka
 
Mackenzie Dern can sit on my face anytime, no reservations needed.
 
I can't believe people are betting on Vannata after that weigh in. Ferg is down to -675. Please people move that McDonald line.
 
Casey @ 2.50 is the biggest gift of the card. She's gonna win and it will be easy. You'll be a fool not to play those odds.
 
Casey @ 2.50 is the biggest gift of the card. She's gonna win and it will be easy. You'll be a fool not to play those odds.
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Her output isn't really that bad at all. I never go purely on a fighters debut performance in the UFC as there is a lot of nerves and 90% of the time we don't get to see their true ability.

Her fight with Ardelean she had a very good output as well as pretty much all of her RXF fights. Swarms punches and has a good front kick up the middle too. On the mat her ground and pound is solid and constant, always looking for submissions.

Casey as exciting as she is and I've seen her live, is not much more than a plodding opponent with decent power. Stanciu will be the taller fighter in this one and that punches in bunches style caused Casey trouble against a significantly smaller Seo Hee Ham, add in the threat of a the solid ground game of Stanciu and it's hard favour Casey in this one.

Ham is not like Stanciu at all, she beat Casey because of her superior tecnique, she was clearly weaker so she couldnt afford to be hit.
Stanciu is going in there to brawl and so will Casey if they end up on the ground it will probably be by accident. I wouldnt be surprised if one of them got stopped. Both girls have poor defence and throw with bad intentions,
 

You goofs are hilarious. You're so confident in a girl whose last win was a bum with a 2-4 record in the Romanian regionals beating a girl who has took 2 top 10 fighters to the brink.

5 units on Casey.
 
You goofs are hilarious. You're so confident in a girl whose last win was a bum with a 2-4 record in the Romanian regionals beating a girl who has took 2 top 10 fighters to the brink.

5 units on Casey.

If you think Casey is winning approx 4 out of 10 times, then there is value in the bet, and I understand that bet. I don't know if 5 units is a maximum bet for you, but to say it's gonna be an easy win for Casey sounds almost too biased. If there's something you know that we don't, please don't hesitate to inform us :) Would like too know why we're the goofs and you're so confident in Casey?
You're correct about Stanciu, but as stated earlier, she's has just begun her UFC career. Compared to others, she did very well in her debut, and will probably do even better in this one. I think she has the cardio advantage and grappling advantage. Casey wants to bang and doesn't do a great job of pacing herself. This is a short notice fight for both fighters, so this should be an advantage for Stanciu as well. Stanciu had an easy weight cut as well.

How do you cap this fight? From my point of view and this line, I would need approx. 65% winning chance for Casey too make such a huge bet. Bear in mind that my maximum risk is 5units.
 
I have a feeling you're already gonna b/d Mayday/Lineker so I'm gonna ask you for your thoughts on Nguyen/Smolka
I have a feeling you're already gonna b/d Mayday/Lineker so I'm gonna ask you for your thoughts on Nguyen/Smolka


I'll give both lol

Nguyen (14-5-0) vs. Louis “Da Last Samurai” Smolka (10-1-0)

This is going to be a very close fight and probably one that sends the too exciting bangers home with some extra pocket change. Just 24 years old, Hawaii's Smolka is an amazingly underrated talent — and one who I believe to be the dark horse of the 125 pound division. At 5'9" tall he is a very big flyweight, and will enjoy a generous 5 inch height advantage over Nguyen tonight. Meanwhile, Nguyen is on a roll and at 27 years old is ostensibly in prime form. An elite pugilist, Nguyen has rapidly matured into a quick-twitch plus athlete with the dynamic ability to pounce on the slightest opening or else land with pinpoint precision to finish his opponent with a single blow. A skill that is unusual for a flyweight.

Stylistically both men are ultra-diverse with top notch striking and grappling with the eagerness to showcase their skills wherever the fight may take them. In 2016 there is no such thing as a specialist in the top tier of the divisions which is why either of these two have the potential to crack the top 10 with a win over the other. That said, when you have a battle of two closely contested combatants like we have here, it is the small details that matter and ultimately who cashes that win bonus. In this case I believe it is going to be the wrestling and scrambling ability of Smolka that will make the difference. Specifically, Smolka has a slick submission game and a proficient wrestling attack with a sneaky good blast double leg takedown he hits in transitions. As such, Smolka will look to use Nguyen's aggressiveness and forward motion against him as he hits the double and brings his foe to the ground. This strategy —combined with using his range — will lead to protracted top control and potentially a late submission. At any rate, I believe that is the way he leaves victorious in a close fight of the night.

Let's not forget that Smolka is entering this bout off of a main event showcase where he choked out Paddy Holohan just a few months ago. Having participated in a main out of it and getting the victory over a fighter the quality of "The Hooligan" is a an intangible that cannot be replicated without having been there. Again, I believe Smolka has hit his stride and is in a dead on sprint up the 125 ladder. An exciting victory over the hometown favorite will help to propel him up those thin rankings in a hurry.


As for a play: this could go either way but I really like the Hawaiian for 2.00 unit bet at anything better than -125. Additionally, I believe over 1.5 round total is a great piece to a two team parlay &. because I cap over 1.5 at around -275 I even see value in straight up still.

______________

Michael McDonald vs. John Lineker

After watching video I believe that the 5'3" stick of Brazilian dynamite that is Jon Lineker is the play. McDonald has simply not evolved enough with his game. In his last outing he barely got by Kanehara — a fighter who Lineker would force into early retirement — and only because Mayday was able to find a submission late in the fight. It's not that I think that Lineker has evolved much either, but incredibly after watching his last five fights, I actually believe that he is better at 135 pounds than he was I as a 125 pound flyweight.. At 135 he seems to have more energy and just as much pernicious punching power. What's more, dude simply doesn't give a fuck. He is willing to throw down with anyone, anywhere at anytime & regardless of their size and punching power. The 43 second war he had with Francisco Rivera was off the hook. Cisco throws bombs and Lineker stood there eating them like Rivera was feeding him a steady diet of free cupcakes. Conversely, the only thing the miniature Brazilian is handing out is free naps. Accordingly, I have a feeling that McDonald is going to catch a bit of shut eye as soon as he closes range.

Play Lineker anything better than -185 straight up or in a parlay. Just don't fight McDonald house what it takes to put the diminutive slugger away.
 
If you think Casey is winning approx 4 out of 10 times, then there is value in the bet, and I understand that bet. I don't know if 5 units is a maximum bet for you, but to say it's gonna be an easy win for Casey sounds almost too biased. If there's something you know that we don't, please don't hesitate to inform us :) Would like too know why we're the goofs and you're so confident in Casey?
You're correct about Stanciu, but as stated earlier, she's has just begun her UFC career. Compared to others, she did very well in her debut, and will probably do even better in this one. I think she has the cardio advantage and grappling advantage. Casey wants to bang and doesn't do a great job of pacing herself. This is a short notice fight for both fighters, so this should be an advantage for Stanciu as well. Stanciu had an easy weight cut as well.

How do you cap this fight? From my point of view and this line, I would need approx. 65% winning chance for Casey too make such a huge bet. Bear in mind that my maximum risk is 5units.

My max bet is 5 units. Casey is solid.
She has more experience, better camp, not flying from Romania, better striking, better grappling, better everywhere. I've watched Stanciu's last 3 fights and she is trash even in her wins, just too green. She doesn't have the cardio advantage either, she gasses in 1 round in every fight. Casey gassed in the JoJo fight on 10 days notice after nearly finishing her but looked good to go for 3 rounds in the Ham fight that was also short notice. Casey has nearly finished 2 top 10 fighters. Casey should be -200.
 
I'll give both lol

Nguyen (14-5-0) vs. Louis “Da Last Samurai” Smolka (10-1-0)

This is going to be a very close fight and probably one that sends the too exciting bangers home with some extra pocket change. Just 24 years old, Hawaii's Smolka is an amazingly underrated talent — and one who I believe to be the dark horse of the 125 pound division. At 5'9" tall he is a very big flyweight, and will enjoy a generous 5 inch height advantage over Nguyen tonight. Meanwhile, Nguyen is on a roll and at 27 years old is ostensibly in prime form. An elite pugilist, Nguyen has rapidly matured into a quick-twitch plus athlete with the dynamic ability to pounce on the slightest opening or else land with pinpoint precision to finish his opponent with a single blow. A skill that is unusual for a flyweight.

Stylistically both men are ultra-diverse with top notch striking and grappling with the eagerness to showcase their skills wherever the fight may take them. In 2016 there is no such thing as a specialist in the top tier of the divisions which is why either of these two have the potential to crack the top 10 with a win over the other. That said, when you have a battle of two closely contested combatants like we have here, it is the small details that matter and ultimately who cashes that win bonus. In this case I believe it is going to be the wrestling and scrambling ability of Smolka that will make the difference. Specifically, Smolka has a slick submission game and a proficient wrestling attack with a sneaky good blast double leg takedown he hits in transitions. As such, Smolka will look to use Nguyen's aggressiveness and forward motion against him as he hits the double and brings his foe to the ground. This strategy —combined with using his range — will lead to protracted top control and potentially a late submission. At any rate, I believe that is the way he leaves victorious in a close fight of the night.

Let's not forget that Smolka is entering this bout off of a main event showcase where he choked out Paddy Holohan just a few months ago. Having participated in a main out of it and getting the victory over a fighter the quality of "The Hooligan" is a an intangible that cannot be replicated without having been there. Again, I believe Smolka has hit his stride and is in a dead on sprint up the 125 ladder. An exciting victory over the hometown favorite will help to propel him up those thin rankings in a hurry.


As for a play: this could go either way but I really like the Hawaiian for 2.00 unit bet at anything better than -125. Additionally, I believe over 1.5 round total is a great piece to a two team parlay &. because I cap over 1.5 at around -275 I even see value in straight up still.

______________

Michael McDonald vs. John Lineker

After watching video I believe that the 5'3" stick of Brazilian dynamite that is Jon Lineker is the play. McDonald has simply not evolved enough with his game. In his last outing he barely got by Kanehara — a fighter who Lineker would force into early retirement — and only because Mayday was able to find a submission late in the fight. It's not that I think that Lineker has evolved much either, but incredibly after watching his last five fights, I actually believe that he is better at 135 pounds than he was I as a 125 pound flyweight.. At 135 he seems to have more energy and just as much pernicious punching power. What's more, dude simply doesn't give a fuck. He is willing to throw down with anyone, anywhere at anytime & regardless of their size and punching power. The 43 second war he had with Francisco Rivera was off the hook. Cisco throws bombs and Lineker stood there eating them like Rivera was feeding him a steady diet of free cupcakes. Conversely, the only thing the miniature Brazilian is handing out is free naps. Accordingly, I have a feeling that McDonald is going to catch a bit of shut eye as soon as he closes range.

Play Lineker anything better than -185 straight up or in a parlay. Just don't fight McDonald house what it takes to put the diminutive slugger away.

I'm big on Lineker too MMAGF. I did a big breakdown back on page 7 or 8.
 
She has more experience, better camp, not flying from Romania

I agree on this

better striking, better grappling, better everywhere.

Can you back this up?
Or do you just think her striking is better because she did well against two top 10 fighters? Calderwood was by far not the same fighter in that fight that she is now, IE. personal problems, training issues etc.

I've watched Stanciu's last 3 fights and she is trash even in her wins, just too green.

I don't know about you, but imo Stanciu is a developing fighter, and you'll always see lots of changes from fight to fight.

She doesn't have the cardio advantage either, she gasses in 1 round in every fight.

She gasses because of the pace she's fighting. If Stanciu pushes the same pace in round 1 against Casey I don't see anyone of them having a cardio advantage.



Im not even sure that I will put money on this fight, and I like some of your arguments to why you have chosen that bet. I would just like you to ellaborate on your arguments. :)
 
Can you back this up?
Or do you just think her striking is better because she did well against two top 10 fighters? Calderwood was by far not the same fighter in that fight that she is now, IE. personal problems, training issues etc.

It was one year ago fam



I don't know about you, but imo Stanciu is a developing fighter, and you'll always see lots of changes from fight to fight.

You can't develop as a fighter when you're training in Romania with nobodies while Casey has been training with Joanna Champion

The tape doesn't lie. Casey has much better technique and has showcased it against fighters that aren't cans with 2-4 records
 
Casey Stanicu just got interesting! I hope you are right, Robbiedawg, love me a good ole dog for lb.
 
I can't believe people are betting on Vannata after that weigh in. Ferg is down to -675. Please people move that McDonald line.

Well crazy things have happened lately mate and it's most likely worth a small flyer.

Would you really be that suprised if vannata caught ferg with something?
Hell Bisping ko'd Rockhold, spider survived Cormier, holm kicked rondas head off,
Fucking Brock Lesner defeated mark fucking hunt!! Black beast got layed on and won!
Nunes just took tates soul, sanchez' chin just got cracked by lauzon, just to name a few

It's crazy times right now
 
Well crazy things have happened lately mate and it's most likely worth a small flyer.

Would you really be that suprised if vannata caught ferg with something?
Hell Bisping ko'd Rockhold, spider survived Cormier, holm kicked rondas head off,
Fucking Brock Lesner defeated mark fucking hunt!! Black beast got layed on and won!
Nunes just took tates soul, sanchez' chin just got cracked by lauzon, just to name a few

It's crazy times right now

Don't scare me, Ryu! But yeah two months ago I would have put on here there's no way on earth Ferg loses. In the current climate no way I'm making such a bold statement. I do expect Ferg to dust him tho.
 
Well crazy things have happened lately mate and it's most likely worth a small flyer.

Would you really be that suprised if vannata caught ferg with something?
Hell Bisping ko'd Rockhold, spider survived Cormier, holm kicked rondas head off,
Fucking Brock Lesner defeated mark fucking hunt!! Black beast got layed on and won!
Nunes just took tates soul, sanchez' chin just got cracked by lauzon, just to name a few

It's crazy times right now

-Very well said mate.
 
Well crazy things have happened lately mate and it's most likely worth a small flyer.

Would you really be that suprised if vannata caught ferg with something?
Hell Bisping ko'd Rockhold, spider survived Cormier, holm kicked rondas head off,
Fucking Brock Lesner defeated mark fucking hunt!! Black beast got layed on and won!
Nunes just took tates soul, sanchez' chin just got cracked by lauzon, just to name a few

It's crazy times right now

Spider has always had a good defensive guard, good enough to survive anyway. Ronda was begging to be ktfo with her striking style. We knew if Lesnar hit TD's Hunto was in trouble. BB did more damage standing by far. Nunes is a beast for a round and a half. Diego is old and has been through too many wars. Bisping and Rockhold...LOL I don't know, I'm out of lame excuses for these!

Anyway just joking around but yeah I'd be pretty stunned if Vannata pulled this off. Like, really stunned. In addition to being far more skilled and seemingly much larger, Ferg has a granite chin so even if he gets caught he'll probably be fine. I can definitely understand playing a guy at +550 in these times with all the upsets happening, but I really do think Ferg just runs through Vanatta. Ferg itd -225 for me.
 
Spider has always had a good defensive guard, good enough to survive anyway. Ronda was begging to be ktfo with her striking style. We knew if Lesnar hit TD's Hunto was in trouble. BB did more damage standing by far. Nunes is a beast for a round and a half. Diego is old and has been through too many wars. Bisping and Rockhold...LOL I don't know, I'm out of lame excuses for these!

Anyway just joking around but yeah I'd be pretty stunned if Vannata pulled this off. Like, really stunned. In addition to being far more skilled and seemingly much larger, Ferg has a granite chin so even if he gets caught he'll probably be fine. I can definitely understand playing a guy at +550 in these times with all the upsets happening, but I really do think Ferg just runs through Vanatta. Ferg itd -225 for me.

Don't jinx me dude! ;)
 
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