UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

[EzFlyer]

Not Conor itd down to -126!!!! EDIT Diaz no scorecards +123!!!

I am HUUUUGEEEEEE on this fight.

ahhh shit. i finally pulled the trigger on diaz +120 (just half unit) and then i realized the -126 line you just mentioned... definitely a better play. goes in line with my prior conor dec / both guys decision plays, too.

 

[crewman]

Hasn't Conor learnt his lesson? Why is trying to finish Nate again? Diaz brothers cant be finished, their too tough.

 

[Tebowned]

Hasn't Conor learnt his lesson? Why is trying to finish Nate again? Diaz brothers cant be finished, their too tough.

Not saying he's gonna have a josh thomson game plan but similar application.

Josh wasn't looking for the KO he was trying to pick him apart at range and get in and out of notes long boxing reach. By picking his shots the KO came to him. He didn't force it.

I'm emotionally invested in this fight so won't go large but if I think Conor has a shot. I never expected him to KO Aldo either.

yea, but we should be malleable, we should be willing to change

It'd just suck to be wrong twice in a row.

Not 100 % saying Nate is gonna lose. Obviously he hurt and made Conor tap less than 10 minutes in on short-notice last time out but for some reason I'm tempted to bet on him. If Conor does win and dominantly it'll remind me of Cung Le vs Scott Smith.

Are you officially on Nate or is that just your lean?

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Thanks card.

I second this. You the man card.

 

[Card]

Live weighins are happening now

 

[plekz]

Not saying

i'd argue that the fact that josh has a very strong wrestling and bjj base to fall back on allowed him to be and act as free as he was, not to mention he also has cardio for days. what does conor have to fall back on?

wrestling is a ?
bjj is a ?
cardio is a ?

nate have also become a better fight since then, i really wouldn't spend to much time looking at those old fights, when you can see clear improvements made in later ones.

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

Weigh in results. All fighters made weight:

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

Conor McGregor (168) vs. Nate Diaz (170.5)
Anthony Johnson (205.5) vs. Glover Teixeira (205.5)
Donald Cerrone (170) vs. Rick Story (171)
Hyun Gyu Lim (171) vs. Mike Perry (169)
Sabah Homasi (170.5) vs. Tim Means (171)

PRELIMINARY CARD (FS1, 8 p.m. ET)

Cody Garbrandt (136) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (136)
Raquel Pennington (135.5) vs. Elizabeth Phillips (134)
Chris Avila (146) vs. Artem Lobov (144.5)
Cortney Casey (116) vs. Randa Markos (116)

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6 p.m. ET)

Lorenz Larkin (170.75) vs. Neil Magny (171)
Colby Covington (171) vs. Max Griffin (170.5)
Alberto Uda (185.5) vs. Marvin Vettori (185.5)

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/08/ufc-202-early-weigh-in-results-11-a-m-et-1

 

[Oblivian]

yea, but we should be malleable, we should be willing to change

I get it, but people can also be too reactionary. I've brought that up several times in this thread with many examples like Cote/Cerrone or Caceres/Miller where old fights matter. I'm not trying to persuade anyone either way, but I just think it's interesting that people flip their opinion that much on a fight. It's just a very drastic change of capping.

 

[mkess101]

I think it's hilarious how much people shifted on Conor/Diaz from the first fight. Come forward - are there a lot of you who bet Conor the first fight who are betting Diaz in the second fight?

I passed on the first fight but absolutely thought Conor would win. I just wasn't going to pay that kind of juice. I will be honest that at the time I thought that not only would his power translate to LW, but to WW vs the top guys. I was wrong. He's an extraordinarily powerful FW striker, but not so at higher weight classes against guys with solid chins.

 

[Agent Mulder]

I get it, but people can also be too reactionary. I've brought that up several times in this thread with many examples like Cote/Cerrone or Caceres/Miller where old fights matter. I'm not trying to persuade anyone either way, but I just think it's interesting that people flip their opinion that much on a fight. It's just a very drastic change of capping.

Sure but the difference is that they fought eachother in said fight, and that's a huge difference.

 

[Tebowned]

i'd argue that the fact that josh has a very strong wrestling and bjj base to fall back on allowed him to be and act as free as he was, not to mention he also has cardio for days. what does conor have to fall back on?

wrestling is a ?
bjj is a ?
cardio is a ?

nate have also become a better fight since then, i really wouldn't spend to much time looking at those old fights, when you can see clear improvements made in later ones.

I'd agree. Josh has great wrestling, BJJ, and Cardio which obviously helped with that game plan of sticking and moving. I don't think conor will push a crazy pace. He always presses forward but normally looks to counter. He fought Nate with the same gameplan he fought Denis freaking siver.
I know he has a lot of early KOs so we don't know what his volume is really like but even before he was injured vs Hollaway he was a lot more patient than the Diaz fight. He actually looked to counter. He threw and landed more strikes in 7 minutes of the nate fight than 15 minutes of the Max fight.

Conor really has to win a striking match with Nate and mostly boxing at a reach and height disadvantage also while avoiding the clinch as Nate never really shoots. After round 1 or 2 I know he'd be in trouble on the ground but Nate would have to get it there or Conor has to Panic wrestle.

I know it may sound corny or cliche but I think people are counting out that he's a championship fighter without the crazy cardio, he definitely has decent defensive wrestling, while fresh doesn't look horrible on the ground, and most importantly speed kills.


Also keep in mind I'm pretty bad at picking conor's fights. I did bet on Nate small last fight at something crazy like +400.


Edit:
Also don't get me wrong. I'm not saying he's gonna point fight.
Not forcing the KO =/= Point-fighting imo.

 

[mkess101]

i'd argue that the fact that josh has a very strong wrestling and bjj base to fall back on allowed him to be and act as free as he was, not to mention he also has cardio for days. what does conor have to fall back on?

wrestling is a ?
bjj is a ?
cardio is a ?

nate have also become a better fight since then, i really wouldn't spend to much time looking at those old fights, when you can see clear improvements made in later ones.

Man this is such a great point. Nate hasn't made any major changes to his game, but the minor ones he's made have added up. I think looking at fights early in Nate's career now and thinking they have major relevance is a mistake. He's simply a better fighter now.

 

[mkess101]

I'd agree. Josh has great wrestling, BJJ, and Cardio which obviously helped with that game plan of sticking and moving. I don't think conor will push a crazy pace. He always presses forward but normally looks to counter. He fought Nate with the same gameplan he fought Denis freaking siver.
I know he has a lot of early KOs so we don't know what his volume is really like but even before he was injured vs Hollaway he was a lot more patient than the Diaz fight. He actually looked to counter. He threw and landed more strikes in 7 minutes of the nate fight than 15 minutes of the Max fight.

Conor really has to win a striking match with Nate and mostly boxing at a reach and height disadvantage also while avoiding the clinch as Nate never really shoots. After round 1 or 2 I know he'd be in trouble on the ground but Nate would have to get it there or Conor has to Panic wrestle.

I know it may sound corny or cliche but I think people are counting out that he's a championship fighter without the crazy cardio, he definitely has decent defensive wrestling, while fresh doesn't look horrible on the ground, and most importantly speed kills.


Also keep in mind I'm pretty bad at picking conor's fights. I did bet on Nate small last fight at something crazy like +400.

I think Conor is in trouble at ANY point if it hits the mat and stays there for more than a very short time. Watching Nate sub legit MMA grappling guys in their prime like Jim Miller tells me that Conor is completely out of his depth on the ground with Nate, even when fresh. Conor CANNOT end up on his back or he's screwed. Nate isn't Mendes. Nate's transitions and ability to advance position and lock in subs is too good. If it's Nate on his back Conor can't mess around in guard. He needs to 100% focus on separating and standing back up. That I think he can do when fresh, but if he gets lazy even for a second he's going to be tapping again.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I get it, but people can also be too reactionary. I've brought that up several times in this thread with many examples like Cote/Cerrone or Caceres/Miller where old fights matter. I'm not trying to persuade anyone either way, but I just think it's interesting that people flip their opinion that much on a fight. It's just a very drastic change of capping.

So if you backed Penn in Penn vs Edgar 1, would it be reactionary to back Edgar in the rematch?

I would hope Conor backers would consider changing their mind after this fight played out with Diaz in on 10 days notice and won

 

[plekz]

Ibut even before he was injured vs Hollaway he was a lot more patient than the Diaz fight

pretty sure max is a ortodox fighter though right? so it would make sense he could be patient then. since his whole style is setup to beat ortodox fighters. and that's really where you need to look at this fight with nate. can't really use josh thomson and what he did, since he's also ortodox, i'd also argue that he's a overall more complete mma fighter, and a more prolific kickboxer aswell.

you really need to look at what toolset conor actually has, and when you do that. and look at his shotselection for instance, you start to see what an insane mountain climb someone with a style like nate diaz is for conor. it's not that nate is some ubermensch complete fighter, it's that his particular style is like kryptonite for conors. i guess i could liken it to how machida fared when he was tasked with trying to overcome the muay thai of shogun.

and if he manages to adapt to that, he'll still need to constantly fight against all his natural instincts and tendencies as a fighter.

listen, if he pulls this off, i'll be the first guy to recognize him as a truly great fighter. meaning if he goes out and performs, and doesn't just manage to land a huge shot that ko's diaz. but actually shows adaptability and changes up who he is naturally as a fighter. because outside of a ko, that's really what it'll take for him to come out with a (w)

and this is really just looking at conor, and completly discounting all the tools diaz himself will be bringing.

 

[Tebowned]

I think Conor is in trouble at ANY point if it hits the mat and stays there for more than a very short time. Watching Nate sub legit MMA grappling guys in their prime like Jim Miller tells me that Conor is completely out of his depth on the ground with Nate, even when fresh. Conor CANNOT end up on his back or he's screwed. Nate isn't Mendes. Nate's transitions and ability to advance position and lock in subs is too good. If it's Nate on his back Conor can't mess around in guard. He needs to 100% focus on separating and standing back up. That I think he can do when fresh, but if he gets lazy even for a second he's going to be tapping again.

I think that's pretty obvious but Conor has done pretty well fresh getting up off the ground even against diaz. He did an okay job getting out of the clinch against the cage by himself in the first.

I'm just saying it's a little crazy when I see people placing 10 unit plays and possibly 30/40 unit plays when I think Conor does have a path to victory that doesn't seem unlikely.

I used to throw around 10 units but as my BR grew I toned it down and my max is around 5 unit if that.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Man this is such a great point. Nate hasn't made any major changes to his game, but the minor ones he's made have added up. I think looking at fights early in Nate's career now and thinking they have major relevance is a mistake. He's simply a better fighter now.

One change that he made and it really mattered is that he checks legkicks now. He ate a few from MJ (who set them really well) but started to check and discouraged MJ from keep throwing (get a legkick checked hurts like hell).

I dont see Conor surviving Nates pace for 5 rounds. I do can see him catching Diaz early and finishing the fight...but I cap that like +160 or more. Last time I checked in my bookies Conor via TKO/KO was +100.
So I think the value is all on Nate for this one.

Also on Cerrone, Mizu and on Lobov here. I think Cerrone and Artem win and Mizu is undevalued.

Love Larkin/Magny over 2.5 at -210 but it looks more like parlay material. I dont see a finish on that one.

 

[YuRikeyAmerican]

Kind of surprised that a lot of people are favoring Cerrone against Story. I know Cerrone has looked good in his last few fights, but I feel like Story is just so durable and has been in there with some top guys at WW. I think his pressure, coupled with his work to the body won't bode well for Cerrone, who is a notoriously slow starter. Cerrone is also already talking about his potential next fight. It seems as though he is looking past Story. While I can respect the confidence, overlooking someone like Story is never a good idea. At +130 odds, I'm gonna lay down a decent bet on Story.

 

[cs02132]

Why did they give garbrandt almeida > mizugaki

Should have been the other way around

 

[Tebowned]

pretty sure max is a ortodox fighter though right? so it would make sense he could be patient then. since his whole style is setup to beat ortodox fighters. and that's really where you need to look at this fight with nate. can't really use josh thomson and what he did, since he's also ortodox, i'd also argue that he's a overall more complete mma fighter, and a more prolific kickboxer aswell.

you really need to look at what toolset conor actually has, and when you do that. and look at his shotselection for instance, you start to see what an insane mountain climb someone with a style like nate diaz is for conor. it's not that nate is some ubermensch complete fighter, it's that his particular style is like kryptonite for conors. i guess i could liken it to how machida fared when he was tasked with trying to overcome the muay thai of shogun.

I see what you mean. In no way am I strongly on the "Conor is gonna derp him" train. I'm mostly playing devil's advocate against most the thread on that's on Nate Diaz so I didn't bring up Nate's skills as he's the favorite(on this board).

I dabble in boxing and understand some basic principles.
One that sticks out is when you have same stance your cross(or conor's straight left) becomes far less effective as you have to reach further. This obviously hurts Conors game.
Though loose elbows like Nates leaves him ripe for the uppercut which conor did land with power at least once.

If we bring up Nate's defense, it's not the best. He was hit with bombs from southpaws like Michael Johnson(who doesn't have BJJ to fall on), RDA, Benson, and even the "Goat" himself conor.
I love his style of striking as he switches up speed intentionally especially with his 1-2s. Which throws off timing and harder to counter. He did it to Conor a bunch but wasn't really effective til that mid second round.
Nates wrestling is meh but yeah It's trouble if he gets conor on his back.