UFC 202 - McGoat vs Diaz II - Vegas

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SalvadorAllende said:
This Mike Perry guy.. what an idiot.
I cant wait till Lim crushes him tomorrow. BTW Lim.. how the hell is that guy at WW?
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call me crazy but even though perry is undersized, he packs 1 punch ko power and has some degree of boxing proficiency. that alone warrants a potential upset against a guy as wild and defencively porous as lim. it's not like lim fights long, he will come flying in from the first bell and it will be a fire fight. i think perry can definitely find that chin during some crazy exchanges. i'm throwing a flyer on perry via ko at generous odds.

as for the late money coming in on story, lol. not budging on cerrone but appreciative of the improvement in odds. won't be playing him til later on in the night depending on how i'm doing.
 
AxeMurderer said:
How can you say that he has the cardio to carry the increased muscle mass? You can't possibly know this. Its more plausible to think that he still can't have the gastank to last a 5 round fight at WW. There are so many things to figure into going into a fight. For instance Dominick Cruz said he has to have the cutting weight period to get himself into the mind set that he is going into a fight. Its part of what gets him ready. I dont believe someone can just change up 2 weight classes and in between 1 fight figure out what most fighters take most of their careers to find out what works and what doesn't. I can totally understand that when you have 2 talented fighters anything can happen. One good punch can turn the entire fight, but more likely, It goes exactly like last fight and Conor once again has no answer for the pace, reach and boxing nate will bring for all 5 rounds.
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We have seen Conor go full 25 minutes (albeit not very hard) in his sparring sessions and outings for the media to prove a point (wasn't even breathing hard at the end) and has focused a ton of time into his cardio for this fight. His physique is much leaner than last time meaning he has less fat going into this fight. Going rounds on rounds against a talented boxer such as the Irish Conlon fella who is tall and long like Diaz means he is more comfortable moving at his weight right now.




What Dominic Cruz does to get himself into his own mindset means squat in this fight. Using another fighters opinion to try and justify what a fighter, who is completely different, will do isn't the way to back up a point.
 
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Nate/Conor FOTN prop is +350. Hit it for $35.00 to win $122.50.
 
piglord said:
call me crazy but even though perry is undersized, he packs 1 punch ko power and has some degree of boxing proficiency. that alone warrants a potential upset against a guy as wild and defencively porous as lim. it's not like lim fights long, he will come flying in from the first bell and it will be a fire fight. i think perry can definitely find that chin during some crazy exchanges. i'm throwing a flyer on perry via ko at generous odds.

as for the late money coming in on story, lol. not budging on cerrone but appreciative of the improvement in odds. won't be playing him til later on in the night depending on how i'm doing.
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Perry has been dropped and rocked by lesser fighters than Lim but he does have decent recovery time. His foray into boxing ended up with him being KO'd. Have all the power you want, if that chin cant handle receiving punishment then you're a glass cannon.

I expect this fight to finish ITD though and I wouldn't be comfortable placing Lim in any parlays.
 
Alltruth said:
We have seen Conor go full 25 minutes (albeit not very hard) in his sparring sessions and outings for the media to prove a point (wasn't even breathing hard at the end) and has focused a ton of time into his cardio for this fight.

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1. Going 25 minutes in a sparring session isn't close to going 25 minutes against someone who is actually trying to do serious damage to you.

2. The video you posted isn't a sparring session, it's a media workout video. Sparring session = 2 guys hitting each other. Media workout = he hits pads and shows off random stuff so the media have something to write about.

3. The big problem with people backing Conor is that they are expecting all of these great improvements from him, but have never seen him employ them in his fights before. As of right now, all you're doing is hoping and praying all of the trash talk and hype he has been talking is true, and will come to fruition on fight-day.
 
piglord said:
call me crazy but even though perry is undersized, he packs 1 punch ko power and has some degree of boxing proficiency. that alone warrants a potential upset against a guy as wild and defencively porous as lim. it's not like lim fights long, he will come flying in from the first bell and it will be a fire fight. i think perry can definitely find that chin during some crazy exchanges. i'm throwing a flyer on perry via ko at generous odds.

as for the late money coming in on story, lol. not budging on cerrone but appreciative of the improvement in odds. won't be playing him til later on in the night depending on how i'm doing.
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I don't totally disagree with you. This fight is highly unpredicatable. Lim way longer and much more experienced though.
 
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PuertoRican said:
1. Going 25 minutes in a sparring session isn't close to going 25 minutes against someone that is actually trying to do serious damage to you.
2. The video you posted isn't a sparring session, it's a media workout video. Sparring session = 2 guys hitting each other. Media workout = he hits pads and shows off random stuff so the media have something to write about.
3. The big problem with people backing Conor is that they are expecting all of these great improvements from him, but have never seen him employ them in his fights before. As of right now, all you're doing is hoping and praying all of the trash talk and hype he has been talking is true, and will come to fruition on fight-day.
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1. I didnt say it was a sparring session (I even mentioned the media outings part), but you could take things from it such as Conor being prepared to go 25 minutes and having markedly improved cardio. I used it as an example to show that Conor HAS improved his cardio.
You could see more evidence of sparring videos from his MacLife channel.

2. The video was more demonstrating that he could be pressured but still have to movement and counter acting capabilities to land blows.

3. Nate can certainly be beaten, this unbeatable aura around him right now is laughable. Conor has the tools to beat him, but I expect him to come in with a gameplan that has been derived from past fighters who had success against Nate and take what he did to Nate from round 1 to come up with a gameplan tailored to Nate.
 
AxeMurderer said:
I also want to bet Uda and was hoping someone would talk me into it lol. Will most likely pass on this fight though.
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Was tempted to have a little nibble on Uda, based on nothing more than it being harder to come though and get noticed by the UFC coming from a country where mma is almost the national sport. It's a fledgling sport in Italy afaik so Vettori likely wouldn't have experienced anything like the same intensity of competition domestically as his opponent. The Italian is 10 years younger though and it's a terrible reason to put a bet on anyway so probably best leave it alone.
 
Alltruth said:
3. Conor has the tools to beat him, but I expect him to come in with a gameplan that has been derived from past fighters who had success against Nate and take what he did to Nate from round 1 to come up with a gameplan tailored to Nate.
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I haven't picked who I think will win the fight yet. At the moment, my lean is on Nate, but still, it's just a lean, not a bet.

Regarding the stuff I quoted above, there's a whole lot wrong with it.

1. If you think he'll do what other guys did to Nate in previous fights, then you're expecting him to change his style of fighting by a great deal in just 5 months. Conor can win, but the way he wins won't come from copying Nate's past opponents who beat him, unless you expect him to use wrestling, a ton of leg kicks, and high level cardio all while throwing a lot of punches.

2. His cardio is improved, right? We don't know how improved it is, and you can't actually say for sure that he can go 2 hard rounds without gassing just by watching his 2-minute sparring clips mixed in with non-fighting clips in his MacLife videos, and I seriously hope you don't believe you can get anything from his media workout videos.

Conor's coach mentioned that Conor had the tools to beat Nate, he just lacked the cardio in their first fight. This is a fair and honest comment, and one I believe to hold some truth. I say some truth because Conor was doing well (not amazing) before he gassed after 7 minutes of throwing way more strikes than he usually does, and we don't really know how he would've looked if he made it out of the 2nd round because he has never fought in a 5-round fight against someone who is bigger and longer, and has better cardio and chin than him.

Anyway, this is my last post on this matter. The fight is almost here. I'd recommend only putting 2 units on Conor pre-fight (if you're really confident in him), and live-bet the rest like some other people are doing ITT.
 
PuertoRican said:
I haven't picked who I think will win the fight yet. At the moment, my lean is on Nate, but still, it's just a lean, not a bet.

Regarding the stuff I quoted above, there's a whole lot wrong with it.

1. If you think he'll do what other guys did to Nate in previous fights, then you're expecting him to change his style of fighting by a great deal in just 5 months. Conor can win, but the way he wins won't come from copying Nate's past opponents who beat him, unless you expect him to use wrestling, a ton of leg kicks, and high level cardio all while throwing a lot of punches.

2. His cardio is improved, right? We don't know how improved it is, and you can't actually say for sure that he can go 2 hard rounds without gassing just by watching his 2-minute sparring clips mixed in with non-fighting clips in his MacLife videos, and I seriously hope you don't believe you can get anything from his media workout videos.

Conor's coach mentioned that Conor had the tools to beat Nate, he just lacked the cardio in their first fight. This is a fair and honest comment, and one I believe to hold some truth. I say some truth because Conor was doing well (not amazing) before he gassed after 7 minutes of throwing way more strikes than he usually does, and we don't really know how he would've looked if he made it out of the 2nd round because he has never fought in a 5-round fight against someone who is bigger and longer, and has better cardio and chin than him.

Anyway, this is my last post on this matter. The fight is almost here. I'd recommend only putting 2 units on Conor pre-fight (if you're really confident in him), and live-bet the rest like some other people are doing ITT.
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Im so confused?

I said - "I expect him to come in with a gameplan that has been derived from past fighters who had success against Nate and take what he did to Nate from round 1 to come up with a gameplan tailored to Nate."
How does this mean that Conor has to change his style? It means he can take what others have used successfully, and if it fits with his style, implement it. That's what derive means - "base a concept on an extension or modification of (another concept)".

His cardio can't NOT improve, and with $300,000 spent on the training camp, I damn well expect an improvement in the Cardio department. Its the easiest of all aspects in fighting to improve rather rapidly. IMO, he needs to do what he did to Nate in round 1 for three rounds and stay in the fight for the last two rounds. Cardio has been one of the buzzwords used by the Conor camp, so im confident he can go three hard rounds (as he did against Holloway).


We were having a discussion, no need to end abruptly. We're here to share our opinions right? I honestly think you're skimming through my posts missing the intricacies prompting you to write slightly misinformed posts regarding my posts.
 
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Alltruth said:
We have seen Conor go full 25 minutes (albeit not very hard) in his sparring sessions and outings for the media to prove a point (wasn't even breathing hard at the end) and has focused a ton of time into his cardio for this fight. His physique is much leaner than last time meaning he has less fat going into this fight. Going rounds on rounds against a talented boxer such as the Irish Conlon fella who is tall and long like Diaz means he is more comfortable moving at his weight right now.




What Dominic Cruz does to get himself into his own mindset means squat in this fight. Using another fighters opinion to try and justify what a fighter, who is completely different, will do isn't the way to back up a point.
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I see your points, and cardio is one of the things he can improve on the most short term, I just do not believe they will happen like you hope they will. I think what you are saying is the perfect game plan for Conor, However I doubt Nate will allow him to Implement it. Can Conor win? sure he can, and you laid out a perfect outline on how he can. I just don't believe he can keep the pace Nate will put on him for 5 rounds. MMA is a strange land and how things have been going with some of the fights lately would anyone be surprised if Conor knocked down and then choked out nate? .....well yes i would be surprised, about as much as i was when Bisping became champ. :) All discussions are good and it wouldnt be much fun if we all agreed and saw the same thing in every fight now would it?
 
What do you guys think of the most significant strikes (Diaz 2.20, Conor 1.62) and most takedowns (Diaz 4.25, Draw 1.40, Conor 6.00) props?
I can't see how Diaz dosent get more of both, especially takedowns.
 
As promised at the beginning of the week, here goes the result of our hard work.

In this first post, we'll present you the fights we are staying away of.

Either their capabilities are too similar or they are not proven enough. Here goes the list:

Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira
Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Mike Perry
Sabah Homasi vs. Tim Means
Artem Lobov vs. Chris Avila

Where we are putting our money is coming next...
 
Alberto Uda vs. Marvin Vettori.

Here our favorite is Alberto Uda. So there you go the underdog of the night.

The odds on Alberto Uda in Bet365 are (2.40, 7/5, +140)
As of now the ROI (return of investment) on Alberto Uda is approx. 140%, excluding fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Alberto Uda (66%) vs. Marvin Vettori (34%)
 
Colby Covington vs. Max Griffin is coming next.

Here our favorite is Colby Covington. We are align with the odds here.

The odds for Colby Covington in Bet365 are (1.30, 3/10, -333)
The ROI on Colby Covington is going to be approx. 30%, before fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Colby Covington(64%) vs. Max Griffin(36%)
 
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