UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

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Garreth McLellan vs Alessio Di Chirico

Here our favorite is Alessio Di Chirico.

The odds on Alessio Di Chirico. in Bet365 are (1.40, 2/5, -250)
As of now the ROI (return of investment) on Alessio Di Chirico is approx. 40%, excluding fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Alessio Di Chirico. (61%) vs. Garreth McLellan (39%)
 
Jeremy Kennedy vs. Alex Ricci is coming next.

Here our favorite is Jeremy Kennedy and we have a strong confidence in this one as you can see below. We are align with the odds here.

The odds for Jeremy Kennedy in Bet365 are (1.66, 4/6, -150)
The ROI on Jeremy Kennedy is going to be approx. 66%, before fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Jeremy Kennedy(85%) vs. Alex Ricci(15%)
 
Coming next:

Felipe Silva vs Shane Campbell is coming next.

Here our favorite is Felipe Silva. The first underdog of the night we are betting on.

The odds for Felipe Silva in Bet365 are (2.10, 11/10, +110)
The ROI on Felipe Silva is going to be approx. 110%, before fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Felipe Silva(67%) vs. Shane Campbell(33%)

This is an excellent chance to make some money :)
 
@barrygood1 how come your posts aren't as professional as Infersports? Was bout to PM you, but think i'll pay for their service instead
 
Next fight:

Kyle Bochniak vs Enrique Barzola

Here our favorite is Kyle Bochniak. No surprises here, we align to the odds.

The odds for Kyle Bochniak in Bet365 are (1.57, 4/7, -175)
The ROI on Kyle Bochniak is going to be approx. 57%, before fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Kyle Bochniak (56%) vs. Enrique Barzola(44%)
 
infersports said:
As promised at the beginning of the week, here goes the result of our hard work.

For this event, we have 3 underdogs, so things get interesting, but first, who to stay away of. And our model recommends to stay away of this one.

Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira

The winning probabilities are too close. We slightly favor Charles Oliveira with a 51% chance of winning, but we are staying out of it.

In the long run though, betting on Oliveira in this match might make you money , but it is up to you if you risk this one.

Where we are putting our money is coming next...
Click to expand...
You deserve a ban for trying to sound professional with those accurate numbers (that you probably pull out of your butthole) and then saying that you're not betting Oliveira at +180 when you believe his chances of winning are >50%, thus proving you are completely clueless. I'm guessing it's an elaborate form of trolling?
At least barry is funny.
 
Chad Laprise vs Thibault Gouti

Here our favorite is Chad Laprise.

The odds for Chad Laprise in Bet365 are (1.33, 1/3, -300)
The ROI on Chad Laprise is going to be approx. 33%, before fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Chad Laprise(60%) vs. Thibault Gouti(40%).

Unexciting, but sure.
 
DevilsAvocado said:
You deserve a ban for trying to sound professional with those accurate numbers (that you probably pull out of your butthole) and then saying that you're not betting Oliveira at +180 when you believe his chances of winning are >50%, thus proving you are completely clueless. I'm guessing it's an elaborate form of trolling?
At least barry is funny.
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I could argue with you about why not, but reading you, is not worth the effort. Go ahead and bet there. Let's see who is going to make money here on the long run.
 
Sam Alvey vs Kevin Casey

Here our favorite is Sam Alvey.

The odds for Sam Alvey in Bet365 are (1.44, 4/9, -225)
The ROI on Sam Alvey is going to be approx. 44%, before fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Sam Alvey(66%) vs. Kevin Casey(34%).

It also looks like a sure thing. A clean investment.
 
I think Bec is a pretty solid bet here, am I missing something? PVZ has horrible striking, she's going to be very hittable. PVZ will look to clinch but Bec has decent BJJ, the only advantage I see PVZ having is athleticism and cardio. Bec has solid training partners she can test herself with, who the hell does PVZ spar with?
 
Jim Miller vs Joe Lauzon

Here our favorite is Jim Miller. There there you have it, our second underdog.

The odds for Jim Miller in Bet365 are (2.25, 5/4, +125)
The ROI on Jim Miller is going to be approx. 125%, before fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Jim Miller(65%) vs. Joe Lauzon(35%).

A good chance to make some nice profits, the chances of Miller are clearly better.
 
infersports said:
Oh, you are doing your high school stats work? :)
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I just try to keep it simple. You seem confused. And if you're gonna sell a product, do yourself a favour and spellcheck your goddam posts, you're embarrassing yourself. MMA advise, return of investment, are you even serious?
 
So there you have it, 3 underdogs, one match to stay away from.

An average return for this evening of 69%, stronger than last weekend. We can afford to be wrong up to 4 of the 9 fights and still break even.

Stay tuned and follow us in twitter ;)
 
infersports said:
Oh, you are doing your high school stats work? :)
Click to expand...
He's right, though... According to your "model", Oliviera should be -105 or whatever and you're able to bet him at +185 but it's a pass? Um, are you only betting on fights w even more massive discrepancies in odds? Bc that's illogical to pass on. A small bet, sure. Doesn't need to be large.

Edit: wait, are you betting on Alvey? Or just predict the line is close
 
iGnP said:
He's right, though... According to your "model", Oliviera should be -105 or whatever and you're able to bet him at +185 but it's a pass? Um, are you only betting on fights w even more massive discrepancies in odds? Bc that's illogical to pass on. A small bet, sure. Doesn't need to be large.

Edit: wait, are you betting on Alvey? Or just predict the line is close
Click to expand...
Is not that "simple" to just look at the implied probability and compare it with the odds. You have more probabilities and you have variance on them... Oh wait, did you though about that? I can post you some books heres so you can inform yourself :D
 
infersports said:
A Ladies fight, following:

Paige VanZant vs Bec Rawlings

Here our favorite is Paige VanZant.

The odds for Paige VanZant in Bet365 are (1.45, 5/11, -220)
The ROI on Paige VanZant is going to be approx. 45%, before fees.

The probabilities of each fighter to win are:

Paige VanZant(60%)vs. Bec Rawlings(40%).
Click to expand...
If PVZ wins 60pct of the time you can't bet her at -220...
You're spamming us with posts that make no sense from a mathematical standpoint. Someone ban this clown
 
@intersports

What are we all missing with your #'s here? It's not just Oliveira that doesn't seem to make sense. I think if you're going to come here and post in an attempt to sell your product you should at least clarify what seem to be some very...odd mathematical claims.

Let's use your analysis of De Chirico:

You are saying you believe he has a 61% chance of winning. His betting line (-250) puts his winning % HIGHER than what you do, yet you claim betting on him provides an ROI of 40%. Do you see the problem with this? Because...I do.
 
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