UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

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@mkess101 it is just fine that you express your opinion. What I don't get is why you all get so mad in the first place. None is forced to follow us, we are just showing our tips and tomorrow our results. We are committed to show them over a long period of time and we will let people make their minds looking at the results and not the chat.

For the record, I'm not mad at all. I was just pointing out that your recommended bets fly directly in the face of YOUR OWN PERCENTAGES RELATIVE TO THE BETTING LINES. It's extremely odd.

Best of luck to you man. I hope you make a boatload of $.
 
Thinking out loud here, I know condit has the better proven gas tank but let's say he wears Maia as a back pack for 2.5 rounds do we really think he'll have more than Maia left in the tank? I think he has slowed down in championship rounds a little bit before and that's without getting smothered for half the fight.
 
Chad Laprise vs Thibault Gouti

I want to include Laprise in a parlay but him missing weight scares me. What also scares me is Gouti hasn't gotten a UFC win yet and it's gotta be coming soon.

What is the most likely scenario for why Chad Laprise missed weight? Someone mentioned on here that he probably just outgrew that weight, but is it more likely that he suffered an injury or sickness?

no clue why he missed weight but obviously now it has to be a case of dog or pass.. even before he missed weight i was thinking laprise line was way too juiced
 
Thinking out loud here, I know condit has the better proven gas tank but let's say he wears Maia as a back pack for 2.5 rounds do we really think he'll have more than Maia left in the tank? I think he has slowed down in championship rounds a little bit before and that's without getting smothered for half the fight.
He'll unquestionably have the better cardio no matter what happens. He's never slowed down in 5 rounds. Only argument you could even make for that is losing the fifth of the Lawler fight. But Maia slows in the third of fights he's dominating
 
Thinking out loud here, I know condit has the better proven gas tank but let's say he wears Maia as a back pack for 2.5 rounds do we really think he'll have more than Maia left in the tank? I think he has slowed down in championship rounds a little bit before and that's without getting smothered for half the fight.

ya he would still be alot fresher imo but i dont see condit giving up his back as "easy" as some of maia's past opponents
 
Thinking out loud here, I know condit has the better proven gas tank but let's say he wears Maia as a back pack for 2.5 rounds do we really think he'll have more than Maia left in the tank? I think he has slowed down in championship rounds a little bit before and that's without getting smothered for half the fight.

I agree man, people talk about Condit being this cardio machine but Robbie stole that last round from him. Robbie finished stronger lol
 
Yeah I don't know but something to look for I between rounds to see how he's breathing.
 
I agree man, people talk about Condit being this cardio machine but Robbie stole that last round from him. Robbie finished stronger lol
Keep in mind that's how Robbie fights though. Defense first and a focus on managing energy. Carlos was balls to the wall all fight, as usual
 
I agree man, people talk about Condit being this cardio machine but Robbie stole that last round from him. Robbie finished stronger lol

that fight was a grueling war with a ton of damage if maia had been in condits shoes that night he would have been dead :D
 
no clue why he missed weight but obviously now it has to be a case of dog or pass.. even before he missed weight i was thinking laprise line was way too juiced
Agree about the dog or pass. Gouti can bang and closes the distance pretty fast. I think he can catch Laprise. Maybe get a TD or two as well.
 
liking miller +3.5 -135 quite a bit.

lauzon's finishes are almost all early, and jim miller is still solid early in fights... i don't think joe finishes him. cap this closer to -200..
 
Yo, everyone stop with the insults and back and forth. You can debate and disagree with Infer's posts without the flaming.

Infer, youre welcome to post your numbers but dont spam your site.

Thanks.

^^ what puo said.. sheesh, i take a few hours off overnight after the pitbull nonsense and find this stuff!
 
Hasn't fought in like forever so another factor is ring rust.

He fought a war that a lot of people thought he won against Lawler like 8 months ago. You can't use 8 months between fights as an argument for that given you're championing your Woodley pick and he was out for like 19 months between the Kelvin and Lawler fights. That and the fact 8 months in between fights is quite a normal amount for a lot of the elite guys. Shit Rumbles last fight was back in January before he murdered Glover last week.
 
Reached 250 likes and received a milestone award to boot. You know what that means fellas, 1 Free Pick and you can be safe knowing it's coming from someone with legit credentials. Research is done after an exhausting and grueling capping session in the lab. Had chug 5 Redbulls just to keep myself from dozing off.

This is what we're going to do for tonight's card. We're putting money on the BJJ savant and Abu Dhabi grand champion Damien Maia. Getting him at plus odds is delicious. See Condit checked out from fighting. Reading between the lines he needs the money which is only reason he's come back. Hasn't fought in like forever so another factor is ring rust. His take down defense is abysmal and only decisive advantage is cardio which is negated by lengthy inactivity. Standup is better but feel he needs to over commit which will have him on his back with the BJJ ace working his magic.

Damien Maia for 1U @ +105 M/L banger as Barry's value pick

Just remember to give credit to the one who keeps making you guys money. If you've followed my plays lately you'd have made a fortune!

A quick rundown of my previous Value Picks which might convince ya'll I'm the real deal Holyfield
- McGregor
- Woodley
- Shevchenko
- Nunes

- Barry
You forgot to mention your most recent value pick (Glover) in that list.
 
Who was insulting infer? I sure wasn't. I was just criticising the nonsense he was posting in a kind way
 
ya he would still be alot fresher imo but i dont see condit giving up his back as "easy" as some of maia's past opponents

Agree. I think the Condit/Jackson strategy will be (assuming Condit is taken down early in the fight) to close guard and work short elbows and punches from there. Don't try to create space, don't try to sweep. Maia is just too good at taking that real estate inch by inch. If Condit is content to make Maia work to just hold him down he should be fresher heading into rd 3.

Maia in a 3 round fight is such a beast because when he takes guys down, they panic. They know it's only 3 rounds and they can't afford to spend a round on their back. So they try to create space or cause a scramble and Maia inevitably takes their back and then they are in a far worse spot. With this being 5 rounds, Condit has the luxury of holding Maia in his guard for 5-10 minutes without feeling he's just given the fight away. He won't need to panic and lose position.

At least that's how I see it.
 
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