UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

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Agree. I think the Condit/Jackson strategy will be (assuming Condit is taken down early in the fight) to close guard and work short elbows and punches from there. Don't try to create space, don't try to sweep. Maia is just too good at taking that real estate inch by inch. If Condit is content to make Maia work to just hold him down he should be fresher heading into rd 3.

Maia in a 3 round fight is such a beast because when he takes guys down, they panic. They know it's only 3 rounds and they can't afford to spend a round on their back. So they try to create space or cause a scramble and Maia inevitably takes their back and then they are in a far worse spot. With this being 5 rounds, Condit has the luxury of holding Maia in his guard for 5-10 minutes without feeling he's just given the fight away. He won't need to panic and lose position.

At least that's how I see it.

spot on exactly how i see it too.. also Condit is one of if not the most experienced fighter in the ufc and besides Gunnar, Condit has the best ground game of Maia's past opponents
 
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He was defending himself... Just not very effectively. The ref yelled at him to defend himself and he said "I'm trying" as his mouth piece went flying.

Source: I'm the guy punching.

Edit: so. Many. Upvotes. I fight tomorrow night at the UFC Fight Night. If you're in the US it's on Fox at 8 eastern, 5 pacific. I am the first fight of the card.

Edit2: my son Joey was born with cancer 2.5 years ago... But he is cancer free now. We had tremendous treatment at the Jimmy Fund so we are doing their walk again this year. If you want to donate to the team, you can go to http://donate.joelauzon.com. Thanks!

Crazy you can see Diego trying to say "I'm trying" right as Joe practically shut off the lights. The ref definitely helped Joe jk.
 




Crazy you can see Diego trying to say "I'm trying" right as Joe practically shut off the lights. The ref definitely helped Joe jk.

Diego was fine, he was just taking a breather before making his big move.
 
Maia/Condit does feel like a trap, as someone mentioned earlier. I could see Condit going for something wild and knocking out the soon-to-be 39-year-old. He's got to know he's going to spend the majority of at least the first 2 rounds on his back defending. It's been about 10 years since Condit was last sub'd. Not sure how likely that is.
 
The main event really is a trap. Seems like one of two outcomes will happen but I bet we see something crazy, or just a really fucking shitty decision like Silva vs Maia
 
He'll unquestionably have the better cardio no matter what happens. He's never slowed down in 5 rounds. Only argument you could even make for that is losing the fifth of the Lawler fight. But Maia slows in the third of fights he's dominating
Im not going to say Maia doesn't have a history of gassing, but he hasn't been gassing in the third round recently. Didn't against Gunnar, Brown or LaFlare. I would only really bank on a 5th round fatiguing from Maia if the fight is going his way.
 
I'd say he was hella tired but he still subbed him in the same round. When I think gassed I think survival mode.
Brown should have stopped him in that third round but he gave up. Maia was 100% gassed, rewatched it yesterday
 
Brown should have stopped him in that third round but he gave up. Maia was 100% gassed, rewatched it yesterday

100% gassed but still managed to take the back and sub him? 100% gassed seems like you're dead.
 




Crazy you can see Diego trying to say "I'm trying" right as Joe practically shut off the lights. The ref definitely helped Joe jk.


joe's a f'ing cool guy. i've followed him a lot in and out of the ufc since he was on tuf... but i don't like the way he looks to the ref to stop fights when he's got a possible tko.. did it with gomi, did it with sanchez.. he's too nice of a guy. not your typical fighter.

... but i want him to just keep going until the ref stops it, i do... maybe that's me as a bettor more than as a human being, but i hate it. i hate when guys walk off KO, too, unless it's ONE HUNDRED percent certain someone is out and not coming back
 
Brown should have stopped him in that third round but he gave up. Maia was 100% gassed, rewatched it yesterday

100% gassed but still managed to take the back and sub him? 100% gassed seems like you're dead.

maia wouldn't have looked the way he did early in rd 3 if he wasn't up 2 rounds, IMO.. he was playing it safe, biding his time

i agree w/both of you. i was loving my brown rd 3 bet (as a hedge to maia plays) at the start of that round and maintain it was the right play.. maia was slower, no doubt. but he still had fight in him, obviously
 
Brown in no way "should have stopped him" in the third round, that is an absolutely silly comment. I just rewatched the third and Maia was sloppier with his takedowns, but still chaining them and actually outlanding Brown on the feet. Brown landed one shot/combination at the 4:30 mark at the end of one of Maia's sloppy takedowns but aside from Goldies "HES HURT" there actually wasn't anything there. Maia flopped to his back and enticed Brown into his guard which Maia methodically worked for 4 minutes to get a sub.

he gassed against Brown lol

Hope he doesn't "gas" against Condit then if you are taking him. **edit although if Brown didn't make the mistake of following Maia to the ground, it seemed like Maia may have tired out and been unable to bring the fight down again himself.
 
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Im not going to say Maia doesn't have a history of gassing, but he hasn't been gassing in the third round recently. Didn't against Gunnar, Brown or LaFlare. I would only really bank on a 5th round fatiguing from Maia if the fight is going his way.
He was definitely slowing in round 3 vs Brown. He's td attempts were getting very desperate, and he ate a big shot from Brown in butt scoot. Brown was an idiot to follow him down to the mat and paid for it

EDIT see this was covered lol
 
Maia faked that he got hurt when he laid down on his back, then when Brown took the bait and jumped into him, Maia grabs a single then just sticks to him like glue eventually finding the choke. I still don't acknowledge that Maia "gassed", gassed is Overeem vs Bigfoot or Barncat vs Josh Samman.
 
He was definitely slowing in round 3 vs Brown. He's td attempts were getting very desperate, and he ate a big shot from Brown in butt scoot. Brown was an idiot to follow him down to the mat and paid for it

EDIT see this was covered lol

Kind of just being the devils advocate as essentially everyone on here agress that Maia is going to gas out a la the LaFlare 5th round, except starting in the 3rd rather than the 5th. I have not bet this fight yet (although im going to the fights, so its a guarantee I make some play). The LaFlare 5th is the only time Maia has been frightfully exhausted from a betting standpoint, but even there it didnt seem like hed be finished as he took so much out of LaFlare as well .
 
Kind of just being the devils advocate as essentially everyone on here agress that Maia is going to gas out a la the LaFlare 5th round, except starting in the 3rd rather than the 5th. I have not bet this fight yet (although im going to the fights, so its a guarantee I make some play). The LaFlare 5th is the only time Maia has been frightfully exhausted from a betting standpoint, but even there it didnt seem like hed be finished as he took so much out of LaFlare as well .
Maia isn't easy to finish. Only happened one time. But if there was anyone to do it, it's Condit in a five rounder. As long as he has a good game plan and makes Maia work, come those championship rounds any sign of being tired will likely be exploited by Condit who's a much better fighter than Laflare and much more of a killer
 
No SUBS +634
u1.5 SUBS +149

The 2 most likely subs are the last 2 fights. If it gets to the main event with no subs you can theoretically hedge with Maia sub a nice + odds, etc
 
No SUBS +634
u1.5 SUBS +149

The 2 most likely subs are the last 2 fights. If it gets to the main event with no SUBS you can theoretically hedge with Maia sub a nice + odds, etc

on it, great call
 
No SUBS +634
u1.5 SUBS +149

The 2 most likely subs are the last 2 fights. If it gets to the main event with no subs you can theoretically hedge with Maia sub a nice + odds, etc
the cancelled fight coulda been a sub, but now i like it
 
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