UFN 93 - Barnett vs Arlovski - Germany

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Round robin worthy bets IMO:

Barnett by stoppage +100
Gus by KO/TKO +162
Latifi by stoppage +300
Hermansson by decision +275
 
I think decision is just as likely, Gus doesn't have great power and Jan is durable. Also don't trust a guy who's been through 2 wars, been KO'd cold and talked about retirement enough to bet on one outcome straight
Fair enough. But I can't pass up this opportunity, worth every bit of the risk for me at current price and the price I played (think +165)
 
I know everone expects Gus to dominate and I don't deny that but the Jan KO line is off. 5d has it over +1000 I mean come on.... this is a fight and anything can happen. It is not impossible that Jan catches him with something. Considering all the upsets this year I really like this for a stab.
 
I know everone expects Gus to dominate and I don't deny that but the Jan KO line is off. 5d has it over +1000 I mean come on this is a fight an anything can happen. It is not impossible that Jan catches him with a kick or punch. Considering all the upsets this year I really like this for a stab.
I think the vivi guys made a great point. If you look at all the years big upsets, all of those people had a better resume than Blach by a mile.

If Gus keeps it standing like hes said in many interviews, barring a freak liver kick there is literally nothing Jan has in his game that can do anything to Gus
 
correct me if i'm wrong but didn't barnett look more flabby than ever before?

bang also looked worse than usual.

ayari looked a bit meh as well.
 
correct me if i'm wrong but didn't barnett look more flabby than ever before?

bang also looked worse than usual.

ayari looked a bit meh as well.
Didn't see any pics of Ayari but fwiw he has zero musculature in all the fights I watched of his
 
Ya cause hes Jan Blachowicz

This is easily one of the biggest mismatches of the year. Championship level fighter vs bottom tier LHW. +500 is not nearly enough when you can still put that risk on Gus KO at + odds. imo, Gus by KO at + odds is one of the best lines of the year.
Yeah.. about that... 3rd world bookies site... dont have any props available.

In fact.. right now (IDK why) only fight available for betting is Sobotta vs Dalby LOL.
 
Bader has never successfully avoided a power puncher with footwork. It's always been wrestling (OSP) or he's took risks (which he's been saying he's going to do for this fight) and got KTFO every single time.

The only problem with wrestling Latifi is that it's very difficult to get underneath a small guy who's built like he is, I honestly don't think he's going to be able to get him down. Then it's a matter of if Bader will do something stupid or get clipped in 15 minutes, which I think he will.

He used a combination of footwork and wrestling to beat OSP. He'll need to mix in TD's (or at least make Latifi defend the threat of them) to make his standup work. But he has the ability to do so. Especially if he doesn't get clipped in rd 1. Latifi slowed noticeably in his last fight about 7 minutes in.

I think Latifi has a solid shot of landing the bomb early, but it decreases significantly as time goes by.
 
I think the vivi guys made a great point. If you look at all the years big upsets, all of those people had a better resume than Blach by a mile.

If Gus keeps it standing like hes said in many interviews, barring a freak liver kick there is literally nothing Jan has in his game that can do anything to Gus
Rockhold-Bisping was more of a mismatch than Gus-Jan and it's not even close. It's a fight, a punch could land.
 
He used a combination of footwork and wrestling to beat OSP. He'll need to mix in TD's (or at least make Latifi defend the threat of them) to make his standup work. But he has the ability to do so. Especially if he doesn't get clipped in rd 1. Latifi slowed noticeably in his last fight about 7 minutes in.

I think Latifi has a solid shot of landing the bomb early, but it decreases significantly as time goes by.
I know I've said this like 10 times now but I don't see Bader even daring to try and take Latifi to the ground. It's really hard to wrestle someone so much smaller than you, especially a guy like Latifi who's all upper body.
 
No it wasn't. Bisping is a legit top level talent, Jan is not.
It was. LHW is not that much worse than HW where all the guys have that much power that it only takes one punch. Rockhold's skill set is so much better than Gus'. Better striking all around, better kicking, better wrestling, better BJJ, better cardio, and he wasn't coming off 3 brutal losses and talking about retirement. Bisping is a top 10 fighter but no one gave him a chance, he didn't have an advantage anywhere.
 
I know I've said this like 10 times now but I don't see Bader even daring to try and take Latifi to the ground. It's really hard to wrestle someone so much smaller than you, especially a guy like Latifi who's all upper body.

Depends. Latifi has huge power and is great in the pocket but struggles to strike from range. If Bader is doing a good job landing his jab and frustrating Latifi that cold lead to Latifi getting reckless in how he chooses to close distance. That negates at least some of what you're talking about (his low center of gravity making taking him down difficult). I do agree that in general taking a guy who's built like he is down with a power double is tough, even for a good wrestler. Most of the time when guys built like him get put on their backs it's against guys with great TD's from the clinch who use leverage really well (Jon Jones type guys). But circumstances dictate a lot. If Latifi is charging forward Bader's power double will work, even against Latifi's body type.
 
It was. LHW is not that much worse than HW where all the guys have that much power that it only takes one punch. Rockhold's skill set is so much better than Gus'. Better striking all around, better kicking, better wrestling, better BJJ, better cardio, and he wasn't coming off 3 brutal losses and talking about retirement. Bisping is a top 10 fighter but no one gave him a chance, he didn't have an advantage anywhere.
Rockhold's skillset is not better than Gus'. Rockhold does not have good boxing at all, and his offense is very particular. He has a better ground game, but thats it.

It doesn't matter who was giving him a chance (even though piglord did and cashed out and I was saying myself I would take Bisping at the odds he had if he had more time), hes still a top level guy and has been for a long time. And he definitely had a boxing advantage over Rockhold. Jan has never even been close to a top level fighter. If anything, you could make an argument hes looking worse than ever when Igor Pokrajac was beasting him last fight.
 
Fucking lol. Easy to say it wasn't a mismatch after it happened. NO ONE gave Bisping a chance. Yes Bisping has the pure boxing advantage (arguably) but it was universally accepted that he's pillow fisted.
 
Also, Gus has the pure boxing advantage over Rockhold. That's literally it.
 
Fucking lol. Easy to say it wasn't a mismatch after it happened. NO ONE gave Bisping a chance. Yes Bisping has the pure boxing advantage (arguably) but it was universally accepted that he's pillow fisted.
I don't even think its arguable. Rockhold can't box well at all. Hes always had a kicking game and a check hook, thats it. He tried to box for 3 mins with short notice Bisping and look what happened.

Like I said, piglord cashed out, and if you wanna check the General MMA thread for the month that fight was announced you will see a post from me saying if there was no short notice i'd be on Bisping. In the first fight it was basically even until Bisping did what Bisping does and became too concerned with an accidental headbutt rather than winning.
 
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