UFC 203 - Stipe vs Overeem - Cleveland

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Didn't want it to feel like an attack although disagreeing with someone on a forum usually comes off like that. I would have brought it up to you on teamspeak, but I saw more people jumping on Him a so I figured I should speak up about my lean itt.

You are the one that mentioned "dober shouldn't be a favorite over anyone" so I replied to that, cause I disagree.

He has size: but please show me some data where he uses that size to his advantage. He gets dominated on the ground and gassed quickly from all that bulk from my research.

He has length and aggression. This for sure, he is a long aggressive striker. Problem is he is not durable, has bad defense, and gasses.

Fade dober on being a favorite. This is maybe the best reason, can't really fault you for that, even tho I think you are going overboard, there are many worse fighters in the ufc than Dober.

Yeah I am betting Dober, I have him spread out with straight, round 3, and by sub.
Misquoting me again... That's fine, though. You are also overselling Dober, and I already brought up why.

And I also disagree with a bet on Dober, I'd rather take the over. Not saying he can't win or can't finish.


I see this fight as a pickem. I'm done with the argument
 
Am probably the first bettor on sherdog to introduce value betting as a means to make money. The problem here is when I see people here just throwing high + odds hoping their prop bets and hail mary bets win. Guys, there's a difference between betting high odds with value versus high odds just because...
For instance I can't for the life of me understand anyone betting CM Punk. The only reason you'd place a bet on him is either you're a CM Punker fan or you're a complete mug with excess funds to blow.
This is the very definition of a fight you pass. Remember, squares love action and the books lust for these type of bettors to fund their lavish lives.

The enemy is the bookies never forget that. We must be ruthless and merciless against them.

Anyone who bet Uriah Faber at +160 gets full props and I don't give kudos lightly.

- Barry
 
Although I am on Gall fastest sub +300, Yancy fastest sub +2000 is interesting

i know i'm in the minority, but i still say magalhaes could stun and then tap out tavares, tiny tiny stab at +1400 hellboy fastest sub (wish i got the +300 gall one you got, tho)
 
Although I am on Gall fastest sub +300, Yancy fastest sub +2000 is interesting

Gall is now +200. He probably wins it, but no value.

I hat that Yancy line though. He has a shot.
 
i know i'm in the minority, but i still say magalhaes could stun and then tap out tavares, tiny tiny stab at +1400 hellboy fastest sub (wish i got the +300 gall one you got, tho)
I was looking at that, too. Just sticking with my Gall play
 
What's up guys! I broke down some of the main card fights and gave my prediction and if anyone needs a particular match broken down let me know.

* Stipe Miocic will be making the first defense of his HW Title — which he won over Fabricio Werdum at UFC 198. Miocic is most likely going to want to remain vertical and test is and test his volume boxing against the more well-rounded striking of Overeem who uses all eight limbs and does so with surgical precision. The giant Dutchman will be aiming for a kickboxing match whereupon he can fire off his thunderous body kicks coupled with a dose of violence from his clinch game. This bout boils down to whether or not The champion can with stand the onslaught of the challenging the Dutch knockout machine boasts a prestigious K1 Grand Prix title on his resume will be searching for the chin and the liver of the hometown favorite and Miocic must remain calm and withstand the early onslaught. If Miocic can get through the dangerous first couple of rounds his chances drastically go up as Overeem has some issues with his conditioning when the fight goes into the championship rounds. Unfortunately I don't believe that Miocic will withstand the power of Reem and the Jackson-Wink trained product brings the title back to Albuquerque.

* Werdum was in killer form during a six-fight winning streak as he ran roughshod over all opposition on the march to becoming the UFC heavyweight champion. The former Brazilian jujitsu ace has drastically improved his striking game allowing him to open up on the feet with no fear of being taken down.. Even at 39 years old Werdum seems to be improving upon his skills and after winning the UFC HW strap was in the conversation down as one of the the best heavyweight fighters of all time. Then he abruptly ran headlong into a Stipe Miocic right hand that sent him crumbling to the mat and waking up only to find out he was going home without his title. The Brazilian is going to be trying to get that belt back around his waist and if he is to do so that first step will be through the giant 6'7" Travis Browne. This is a rematch of a fight Fabricio dominated Browne in their first meeting. Basically, Browne has one avenue to victory and that is to catch the former champion with a big shot early in the fight or else he's going to be grapple-fucked for three rounds if not stopped outright. Barring something crazy, I believe Werdum carves his way through the big Hawaiian like a hot knife through butter en route to his march back to the top.

* Uriah Faber represents a major hurdle for Rivera at this moment as he is the ultimate gatekeeper at 135 pounds and Jimmie is looking to bust through said gate like a runaway beer truck. The fast rising 135 pound mixed martial arts neophyte is on a steady march into the top five as he continues to stack bodies on his steady climb into the divisional elite. A former high school wrestler Rivera is built like a fucking tank and is excellent at negating his opponents takedown attempts. In doing so he is able to remain vertical and use his fundamentally sound high-volume boxing to string together myriad combinations and keep his foes on their back foot. Meanwhile he's racking up points with the judges. His opponent Uriah Faber, is coming off a one-sided decision loss to Dominic Cruz in what is his seventh consecutive defeat in a non-title match. Indeed, at 37 years old Faber has significantly lost a step up from his early UFC and WEC days. I mean, the 2011 version of Uriah Faber would have shredded the likes of a Francisco Rivera, Bruce LeeRoy, and Frankie Saenz all in a one night tournament. However, every subsequent match demonstrates the degree to which the "California Kid" is losing those quick twitch muscles and über fast reflexes that made him a monster wherever the fight went. Still yet, the long time veteran is as savvy a they get and is still a level above anything Rivera has dealt with. As such, I think Faber uses his crafty experience to work his way through some tough moments before ultimately doing what he does best — continue to win non-title fights. In an absolute pick em' fight, I see Faber creating a scramble whereupon he grabs the youngsters neck and locks up some sort of choke to surprise us once again.

* Mickey Gall is the closest thing to a lock we'll get at UFC 203. I mean, Punk is on the wrong side of 35 and hasn't competed in any meaningful athletic competition in his life save for scripted professional wrestling. Without any pro — or even amateur — fights to his name, Punk has only trained jiu-jItsu sporadically which just isn't going to cut it at this level — or any other — against a hungry young lion like Gall. Indeed, given everything that is stacked against him, Punk will be lucky to see the second round. While Gall only has two fights to his name and is almost as much a blank slate as the novice Punk, at least he has a purple belt in BJJ and has been training in all facets of the sports since he was 15 years old. What's more, Gall is over a decade younger than his counterpart and has already got his feet wet inside the octagon. Finally, Gall has got the endorsement of Jim Miller who claims that the young kid will win within a minute. I don't know about all that, but I know that Jim Miller doesn't go shooting his mouth off without a bit of confidence. Most people are expecting that Gall get a victory via submission, but given the drastic speed and power advantage the youngster is likely to have, I could very well see him dusting the former pro wrestler with strikes. At +194 putting a flier on Mickey via TKO isn't exactly the craziest option in the world. Just saying.

* Jessica Andrade was a contender at 135 lbs despite being barely 5'2" tall and clocking in at 135 pounds soaking wet. Nevertheless, the Shermanesque Tank of a fighter uses her forward pressure and heavy artillery in the way of bombing overhand rights interspersed with shots to the body to break her opposition down. Now that she has she has cut to the 115-pound division Andrade has the frame and power to roll up a host of bodies. In fact, her initial SW bout against Jessica Penne was a great illustration of what Andrade can do in 115 lb. class. Calderwood is a gritty gunslinger herself with long and rangy striking with all limbs but here she's in the path of a runaway boulder heading downhill and rolling over whatever gets in its way. While JoJo is the more technical fighter with a better all around attack, the problem is Andrade is a cement fisted brawler who breaks her opponent down with a steady diet of strikes to the head and body which will give her even more success at 115 pounds. This was seen against a top ranked Jessica Penne who Andrade absolutely battered. Stylistically, JoJo is very similar in build and technique to the aforementioned Penne and she's also shown herself to be crackable — is that a word? — in the past. Both Maryna Moroz and Courtney Casey put heavy leather for JoJo and showed her susceptibility to heavy-hitters. This obviously doesn't bode well for the docile Scot given the fact that Andrade is an even heavier handed fighter than the former two. I anticipate the Brazilian continuously cracking JoJo and ultimately seeing her wilt under a steady stream of punishment. I hope that I am wrong. JoJo is so sweet. ❤️

* Other underdogs I like is Sean Spencer. I believe that "Black Magic" will be faster and stronger given the fact that Yancey Medeiros is making the leap up to the 170 pounds welterweight division. Indeed, I realize that Medeiros fought as high as 185 pounds prior to coming to the UFC, but he did so against mediocre opposition. I believe that Spencer can get the better of Medeiros when standing and also mix in take downs throughout the match to freeze the Cesar Gracie product up and get him hesitating. I actually think that Spencer should be a -160 favorite here so I see a world of value in him +103 at last check.

Good to see you bro. I'm literally on every single one of those picks.
 
Pure grappling is very different to MMA, and we don't know how good Punk's BJJ is. You can get really good at one technique if you drill it everyday for 2 years

It's different, but mostly the difference is defending strikes off your back. Gall has been shooting on guys for a long time in grappling, MMA training, MMA fights, etc. He's a really good grappler and most likely won't even be in Punk's guard when he takes him down is my opinion. He looks good (from the limited footage there is) at taking guys down and getting his hips enough to the side while he does it to actually end up in side control a lot of the time.

Anyway, is Punk sub impossible? Nah. I want better than +950 or whatever it is now though.
 
sorry in a rush here but if CB is out and you had a parlay with him. is the bet null now? do I need to make a new bet?
 
It's different, but mostly the difference is defending strikes off your back. Gall has been shooting on guys for a long time in grappling, MMA training, MMA fights, etc. He's a really good grappler and most likely won't even be in Punk's guard when he takes him down is my opinion. He looks good (from the limited footage there is) at taking guys down and getting his hips enough to the side while he does it to actually end up in side control a lot of the time.

Anyway, is Punk sub impossible? Nah. I want better than +950 or whatever it is now though.

Meh, I thought 40/1 for sub in round 1 was worth a flyer.
 
sorry in a rush here but if CB is out and you had a parlay with him. is the bet null now? do I need to make a new bet?

if it's a 2 teamer, it becomes a straight bet.

if it's a 3 teamer, it becomes a 2 teamer
 
Pure grappling is very different to MMA, and we don't know how good Punk's BJJ is. You can get really good at one technique if you drill it everyday for 2 years

Let's take a step back here. You really think CM punk is drilling a guillotine, which is a low percentage move in MMA and BJJ, everyday for two years? Because Renzo said he'll win by guillotine and Robin Black "thinks" he knows what Roufus means. It's a hell of a stretch.

Pure grappling is obviously different than MMA as strikes are added and you can get in more funky scrambles IE. Gall vs Michael Jackson after a k/d.
I have a pretty likely suspicion CM's grappling is not on a high level.

Not counting Cm Punk out and I honestly hope he wins but his best shot imo is to pick his shots and strike as we really have no clue about Gall's striking but his grappling is pretty impressive even though he got dominated by gordon.
 
Let's take a step back here. You really think CM punk is drilling a guillotine, which is a low percentage move in MMA and BJJ, everyday for two years? Because Renzo said he'll win by guillotine and Robin Black "thinks" he knows what Roufus means. It's a hell of a stretch.

Pure grappling is obviously different than MMA as strikes are added and you can get in more funky scrambles IE. Gall vs Michael Jackson after a k/d.
I have a pretty likely suspicion CM's grappling is not on a high level.

Not counting Cm Punk out and I honestly hope he wins but his best shot imo is to pick his shots and strike as we really have no clue about Gall's striking but his grappling is pretty impressive even though he got dominated by gordon.
I don't think it's crazier than betting on Gall straight at -400 because he beat a journalist and he's looked alright in a few minutes of footage
 
Meh, I thought 40/1 for sub in round 1 was worth a flyer.

Okay yeah that one I'll buy. If he does somehow do it, rd 1 is most likely given it probably is a guillotine and it's pretty likely Gall shoots early.

I can't argue with anyone taking that line at all. Tiny bet and nice profit if you somehow hit it.
 
I don't think it's crazier than betting on Gall straight at -400 because he beat a journalist and he's looked alright in a few minutes of footage

I'm not betting Gall SU. I have him ITD very small for action.

I just think anything more than a few bucks on punk by sub is mind blowing to me even @ +1000 or so.
 
Isn't the gilioutine one of the most common subs after the rnc, its one of those subs a lower belt could catch a higher belt in

And to be clear I dont think cmp will catch gall in one
 
Isn't the gilioutine one of the most common subs after the rnc, its one of those subs a lower belt could catch a higher belt in

And to be clear I dont think cmp will catch gall in one
yeah, very low success rate, though. Less than 10%, IIRC
 
line moved 15 points in Overeem's favor in the last 12 hours

feel good about his chances but wish I jumped on the price earlier
 
I'm not betting Gall SU. I have him ITD very small for action.

I just think anything more than a few bucks on punk by sub is mind blowing to me even @ +1000 or so.
I've got a tiny bet on him by sub in round 1 at 40/1

I think that's a better bet than Gall ITD at -300 or whatever it is
 
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