UFN 94 - Johnson vs Poirier - Texas
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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i balked on that one, took -140
Not sure, Leleco is very tough and ate everything Smith threw at him.
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Always easy to defend a play like that when it feels inevitable Carlos Jr. takes the back if he gets an early td. All EZ needs is for him to ground and pound instead of choke. At +470 I see the value.
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I am no oracle...just my 2c here.
Glenn coming in on short notice, probably has poorish cardio. I expect Glenn to come in and kinda blow his load as many short notice guys do. Combined with this being his UFC debut...
Evan is just so tough I could see him walking right through Glenn. I am not saying its a sure thing but there are enough red flags that I don't trust the over. Well put it this way, I don't trust Glenn enough to want to bet the over.
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Carneiro /Robertson: I dunno just both dangerous guys. I think if Roan gets a TD it can be over pretty fast as his BJJ is slick. Conversely Robertson can get a KO in r1 too. Just looking at their records I don't like it. IF it gets out of r1 then the over is probably good but I think it farily likely this finishes in 1.
Anyone think Blanco has a chance here? Initial thoughts were Skelly is a legit prospect and not fade material, but after watching some tape It's closer then I thought. Skelly "the wrestler" got absolutely dominated and controlled by Elkins, and looked like shit in that Souza fight(who has similar striking style and power as Blanco). Blanco's coming off a loss, but before that he knocked out de la torre who ain't bad and he looked great against Dan Hooker. Threw everything but the kitchen sink, ate some brutal strikes, showed he's no easy out at all. Maybe not quite a pick-em but closer then the odds suggest. I think its dog or pass here.
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He definitely has a chance, but disagree with similar striking to Souza. Souza is rangy and uses lots of down the center shots, Blanco is more wild and aggressive and prefers a more brawling style.
Personally think Skelly takes the back and grabs the RNC at some point, especially since hes been training with Blackzilians after having camp issues leading up to the Elkins fight, but these guys are both weird. Anyone whos not a degen like me would probably suggest passing, or like you said, taking the dog with small action
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May have a bit of time to do some breakdowns like I used to do in the past, if anyone wants any specific fights done. Haven't fully been able to watch footage and research a lot of fights in a long time so it's great to be able to do it again, much more confident in betting this card.
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Randy Brown vs Erick Montano
vs
I first noticed Brown as a prospect around September 2015 when I mentioned him in my Welterweight prospect thread [http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/unsigned-welterweights.3064041/] a while before he appeared on Dana White: Looking For A Fight.
Brown is another talent from the conveyor belt which is Lou Neglia's Ring of Combat. Brown comes from a boxing background, he then took up Jiu Jitsu at Renzo Gracie's when beginning his MMA career. Brown mixes up his training between Budokan Martial Arts Academy, Renzo Gracie Academy, Long Island MMA and Bellmore Kickboxing Academy. Brown is very physically blessed for the Welterweight division standing at 6'3" and having a huge 78" reach for the weight class; he uses his size advantage well. He has a very long popping jab which will be needed in this fight, he managed to use it well against the rangy Matt Dwyer in his debut and also had great success with it in the opening round of the Graves fight. Another asset often overlooked is the leg reach, especially when you consider how quick Brown's kicks are, from his front kick up the middle to the body along with threading in high kicks to his combinations. He uses the front kick well to keep distance but also to measure the space between himself and his opponent, often throwing the front kick and following with a flurry of punches. On the feet however he does at times appear susceptible to the overhand right, often retreating with his chin high; Dwyer managed to land one on his chin whilst forcing Brown backwards; Brown took the punch well but Dwyer does not have the same punch power as Montano so he will need to keep his chin tucked.
Although Brown eventually succumbed to the relentless takedown game and incredibly heavy top control of Michael Graves his overall grappling is showing signs of improvement and there is no shame in losing to a fellow prospect in Graves. In the Dwyer fight we saw Brown mix in takedowns against the cage, having some success and even coming close to finishing a power guillotine. He is steadily progressing and has some dangerous chokes due to his long arms; Graves has some of the best wrestling at WW so it was a stern test for him but Montano doesn't possess the same wrestling prowess which means Brown will have less to worry about.
Keys to victory for Brown:
Utilise a walking stick jab keeping Montano at range
Mix in takedowns and grappling
Mix in his fast kicks with punches to catch Montano off guard
Not quite blessed with the same physical gifts as Brown, Montano stands at 6'0" with a reach of 71 or 73, depends where you get your stats.". Montano found some success on the Mexican regional circuit despite some sloppy technique, before getting a place on TUF: Latin American Season 2 and eventually winning the Welterweight finale. For the TUF finale fight Montano was training in the States, for this fight he is training back at Bonebreakers MMA in his native Mexico. I wasn't impressed my Montano at all in his TUF finale fight and think the decision could easily have gone the other way. Whilst Montano does pack some decent power and his tough, it's hard to see much more strengths in his game and I'm not sure how anyone could be confident in picking him against someone like Randy Brown. He is quite active with his jab and has a bad habit of ducking his head down every time he throws it, to the point where it's very telegraphed and opens the opportunity for a big knee to the face if he starts to get into a pattern. His gas tank is also a huge concern as he slowed down greatly in the 2nd round of his fight with Marin (granted the fight was in Mexico but Marin didn't seem to gas near as bad); his hands were at his waist, everything was telegraphed and his defense was wide open. He is moderately strong in the clinch but we've not seen him against a taller and arguably stronger opponent in the clinch so I can't take any confidence in that. Overall his game doesn't appear much more than a tough brawler with just enough clinch work to negate his opponent when he needs, but lacks the technique in both striking and grappling to ever really pose a huge threat. He could benefit massively with a move to a big camp but the fact he hasn't means I struggle to imagine he will have improved much despite having close to a year outside the Octagon.
Keys to victory for Montano:
Make it a dog fight with dirty boxing
Try find openings for the overhand right
Close the distance and have Brown on the backfoot
Prediction:
Brown is more skilled everywhere in this fight, I expect him to use his jab well in the opening round, mixing in kicks forcing Montano to move or expend energy trying to clinch with Brown and take him down. Montano will struggle to take Brown down and especially keep him there if he can manage it. Brown comes out with a higher tempo in round 2 and puts away Montano with a barrage of strikes or chokes him out after a tired Montano tries a desperate takedown against the cage. Either way I see Brown finishing this in round 2.
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Randy Brown vs Erick Montano
I first noticed Brown as a prospect around September 2015 when I mentioned him in my Welterweight prospect thread [http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/unsigned-welterweights.3064041/] a while before he appeared on Dana White: Looking For A Fight.
Brown is another talent from the conveyor belt which is Lou Neglia's Ring of Combat. Brown comes from a boxing background, he then took up Jiu Jitsu at Renzo Gracie's when beginning his MMA career. Brown mixes up his training between Budokan Martial Arts Academy, Renzo Gracie Academy, Long Island MMA and Bellmore Kickboxing Academy. Brown is very physically blessed for the Welterweight division standing at 6'3" and having a huge 78" reach for the weight class; he uses his size advantage well. He has a very long popping jab which will be needed in this fight, he managed to use it well against the rangy Matt Dwyer in his debut and also had great success with it in the opening round of the Graves fight. Another asset often overlooked is the leg reach, especially when you consider how quick Brown's kicks are, from his front kick up the middle to the body along with threading in high kicks to his combinations. He uses the front kick well to keep distance but also to measure the space between himself and his opponent, often throwing the front kick and following with a flurry of punches. On the feet however he does at times appear susceptible to the overhand right, often retreating with his chin high; Dwyer managed to land one on his chin whilst forcing Brown backwards; Brown took the punch well but Dwyer does not have the same punch power as Montano so he will need to keep his chin tucked.
Although Brown eventually succumbed to the relentless takedown game and incredibly heavy top control of Michael Graves his overall grappling is showing signs of improvement and there is no shame in losing to a fellow prospect in Graves. In the Dwyer fight we saw Brown mix in takedowns against the cage, having some success and even coming close to finishing a power guillotine. He is steadily progressing and has some dangerous chokes due to his long arms; Graves has some of the best wrestling at WW so it was a stern test for him but Montano doesn't possess the same wrestling prowess which means Brown will have less to worry about.
Keys to victory for Brown:
Utilise a walking stick jab keeping Montano at range
Mix in takedowns and grappling
Mix in his fast kicks with punches to catch Montano off guard
Not quite blessed with the same physical gifts as Brown, Montano stands at 6'0" with a reach of 71 or 73, depends where you get your stats.". Montano found some success on the Mexican regional circuit despite some sloppy technique, before getting a place on TUF: Latin American Season 2 and eventually winning the Welterweight finale. For the TUF finale fight Montano was training in the States, for this fight he is training back at Bonebreakers MMA in his native Mexico. I wasn't impressed my Montano at all in his TUF finale fight and think the decision could easily have gone the other way. Whilst Montano does pack some decent power and his tough, it's hard to see much more strengths in his game and I'm not sure how anyone could be confident in picking him against someone like Randy Brown. He is quite active with his jab and has a bad habit of ducking his head down every time he throws it, to the point where it's very telegraphed and opens the opportunity for a big knee to the face if he starts to get into a pattern. His gas tank is also a huge concern as he slowed down greatly in the 2nd round of his fight with Marin (granted the fight was in Mexico but Marin didn't seem to gas near as bad); his hands were at his waist, everything was telegraphed and his defense was wide open. He is moderately strong in the clinch but we've not seen him against a taller and arguably stronger opponent in the clinch so I can't take any confidence in that. Overall his game doesn't appear much more than a tough brawler with just enough clinch work to negate his opponent when he needs, but lacks the technique in both striking and grappling to ever really pose a huge threat. He could benefit massively with a move to a big camp but the fact he hasn't means I struggle to imagine he will have improved much despite having close to a year outside the Octagon.
Keys to victory for Montano:
Make it a dog fight with dirty boxing
Try find openings for the overhand right
Close the distance and have Brown on the backfoot
Prediction:
Brown is more skilled everywhere in this fight, I expect him to use his jab well in the opening round, mixing in kicks forcing Montano to move or expend energy trying to clinch with Brown and take him down. Montano will struggle to take Brown down and especially keep him there if he can manage it. Brown comes out with a higher tempo in round 2 and puts away Montano with a barrage of strikes or chokes him out after a tired Montano tries a desperate takedown against the cage. Either way I see Brown finishing this in round 2.
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agreed that its a dog or pass. Blanco's skills are really great, but hes the biggest head case in the UFC that I can think of at the moment. If he fought to his potential he could destroy skelly and be a top 15 fighter.
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Sherdog preview up
http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/1/Preview-UFC-Fight-Night-Poirier-vs-Johnson-111163
main card:
Dustin ud
Brunson ud
Skelly r2 sub
Robertson r2 ko
Dunhan r3 sub
mak r2 sub
Prelims:
Benitez ud
Guimaraes r3 ko
Belal r3 ko
Gomez r2 ko
Brown ud
Perez r2 ko
http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/1/Preview-UFC-Fight-Night-Poirier-vs-Johnson-111163
main card:
Dustin ud
Brunson ud
Skelly r2 sub
Robertson r2 ko
Dunhan r3 sub
mak r2 sub
Prelims:
Benitez ud
Guimaraes r3 ko
Belal r3 ko
Gomez r2 ko
Brown ud
Perez r2 ko
and glenn works full time as opposed to fighting being his full time job. great live betting opportunity on evan if rick were to somehow win the first round
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Thanks man. Used to be able to do at least 4 or 5 a card and I had a much higher success rate in betting MMA back then as opposed to just betting of mainly what I can remember from previous fights from memory like now. Not bet as much on MMA recently mainly just boxing but going to try get a few more out for this card. Won an alright amount last weekend on a Boxing and UFC 7 fold but focusing mainly on MMA weekend and possible Boxing bets on the Alvarez vs Smith card.
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