UFN 95 - Cyborg vs Lansberg - Brazil

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Came out a couple days earlier than usual, get over the jet lag and heat, it's been a long fight camp, had to pull out because of visa issues, (Jake Matthews fight), He's unorthodox, he looks uncomfortable, he's long but doesn't use his reach, he's the first southpaw I've fought in my career, the pressure is on him, I believe in my grappling skills, I prepare for a war, winning a close decision, but if the stoppage comes I'll take it, I'd like to fight Ross Pearson

 
For anyone that listens to Luca

 
Holy shit just watched Big Nog Roy for first time since it actually happened. Forgot how brutal that shit was. Feel bad for Silva man
 
Still training in New York, alot of gyms I go too, my last loss, maybe my strategy was off, maybe he was more hungrier than me, (Tukhugov), this is the biggest fight of my career, I'd seen him in the hotel, he doesn't look like at 145er, Size wise I cut more weight than Jeremy, I thought they were going to put me on the October Manila card, I see myself finishing him, if I leave it to the judges, they'll give it to him

 


I gotta add on Lina now, I honestly believe Cyborg is wrecking her body too hard with these cuts... Can Lina make it out of the first minutes, god knows how Cyborg willl hold up.
 
vkram said:
Thats a very big if, maybe worth live betting instead?
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Thats a good idea, I wont be able so see it live though, so no live betting for me...
 
The cut has always been hard for Cyborg. It was just as bad against Leslie Smith. But go ahead and waste your money on Lansberg...​
 
mkess101 said:
I think you are missing my point. His study only shows what would happen if you bet the dogs/faves at the time the lines closed. If at opens you are getting better odds on the faves and worse odds on the dogs in general, that's going to affect what the #'s look like at the end.

If every -130 favorite at close was -120 at opens and you bet them, you are risking less each time you bet him at opens instead of at closing.

Likewise, if every +130 dog at close was +120 at opens, you are winning less each time your dog wins if you waited until closing to bet him.

I'm not talking about if line movement correlates with the outcome of a fight. I'm talking about how it affects the overall profitability of the bettor.

If we both bet the same favorite to win a fight to win 1u, but I get him at opens at -150 and you wait until fight night and bet him at -200 and he loses, we both lost. Only I lost 1.5u and you lost 2u. Extrapolate that over a long time period, and you are talking about a lot of units.
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i agree with what you are saying and believe that if you by amd large wait to bet the dog at the close, as opposed to the open, you will get better odds as the public generally inflates the lines to the favorite
 
guess roy thinks he beat black beast hence the 3 fight streak.
 
Shoulder said:


I gotta add on Lina now, I honestly believe Cyborg is wrecking her body too hard with these cuts... Can Lina make it out of the first minutes, god knows how Cyborg willl hold up.
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maybe you should wait for the weight ins and hit the line once cyborb steps on or off the scale. they books are not going to pull the line before the weigh in. this saves you a for sure loss if cyborg says fuk it and comes in at 145

im going to live bet lina if she can get out of the first round and cyborg makes the weight. a solid play if she is taken down and survives the gnp and then gets offered at +2000 going into the 2nd round
 
Silva wet the bed bad against Taleb and looked awful but fight before he had a really close fight with Magny. Just don't know what to think of this fight.
 
quincy k said:
maybe you should wait for the weight ins and hit the line once cyborb steps on or off the scale. they books are not going to pull the line before the weigh in. this saves you a for sure loss if cyborg says fuk it and comes in at 145

im going to live bet lina if she can get out of the first round and cyborg makes the weight. a solid play if she is taken down and survives the gnp and then gets offered at +2000 going into the 2nd round
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Good point! I won't be able to lb, but waiting till weight in is smart.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Silva wet the bed bad against Taleb and looked awful but fight before he had a really close fight with Magny. Just don't know what to think of this fight.
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I was on Magny there and nearly shat myself like 5 times. Partly because Magny is so frustrating and partly because Silva performed better than I expected.
 
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