UFN 95 - Cyborg vs Lansberg - Brazil

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Not too big in terms of money (I started with $60 at the start of the year, playing with a bankroll of about 500 right now), but it's the third biggest play I've ever made (biggest was Shevchenko vs Kaufman and Rose vs Paige). Don't do it too often but I think there's a lot of value on Trinaldo. Also have about 7.4 units riding on Formiga.

While I agree with the pick, I am in total agreement with the advice EZ gave you and thin you are most likely risking far too much on these tilts. I mean, 13.5u for what is for all intents and purposes a coin flip of a fight. Ummm! Uh uh!

Personally, I am putting a bit down on Francisco as I give him around a 60% chance of winning (though I could be persuaded otherwise) and would not talk someone off of Felder. But with the fight being in Brazil is what pushed me over the tipping point. But boy oh boy, there is no way in hell you could give me to put 13 units on a 38-year-old fighter who has a history of cardio problems Fighting against a fiery redhead marauder who is six years his junior and can put his lights out with a single blow. No. Fucking. Way!

...also, I believe that you are taking a huge gamble putting 7.5 units down on Juissier as that fight is also close and in my personal opinion shows no type of value where a bettor would risk that much money or said bout.

At any rate, BOL brother
 
Nice to see you stop by with some breakdowns Goodfella. I'm on all your same picks except I backed Yahya, hopefully winning what I fear may be a split decision in Brazil. The travel isn't easy on Japanese fighters to North or South America. I'm also on Franca scorecards= no action in case Gillespie wins a decision and small on Franca sub too, but no ML play there. You didn't break down Alan Patrick vs Stevie Ray. What do you think there? I bet Patrick ML at +161, but Ray does have a path to victory.

Thanks JG

Personally I like Stevie Ray but they could go either way. Alan Patrick is very frustrating to watch and he has burned me countless times. I need to finish my research tonight and in the morning and I will put up the other four fights.

As for Rani, I believe the only way to play and where you are giving in the value is either his submission or round one prop bet. But BOL my man!
 
I`m thinking about desparate Felder trying to land some of his spining shits in gassed Trinaldo`s face. And i hardly see them hit their target but maybe there is some value in the Felder R3 prop @15.00
 
Not too big in terms of money (I started with $60 at the start of the year, playing with a bankroll of about 500 right now), but it's the third biggest play I've ever made (biggest was Shevchenko vs Kaufman and Rose vs Paige). Don't do it too often but I think there's a lot of value on Trinaldo. Also have about 7.4 units riding on Formiga.

I also have 7 units on Formiga, which is a massive bet by my standards (the only others I've been on this large this year have been Leon Edwards vs. Dominic Waters and Saffedine vs. Ellenberger).

God help us. (Just kidding... I am very confident)
 
Hell yea O! Nearly 6 years later and we're still winning and making sharp picks! Glad to know you are on board!

BTW: are there any special prop bets or o/u you like? Here's a few I like:

Santos by submission +1400: Santos has actually recorded a submission win in his career — by RNC — and this could very well be a case where the Brazilian rocks Spiceley and then follows him to the mat where he takes his back and sinks in a choke on the dazed and confused American.+1400 it is worth a very very small flier like 0.3 units.

Luque wins by submission at +180 : in short, this is how I save a fight and they nearly ~55% of the time with another 20% by knockout then 10% UD/SD in favor of Luque. Then the other 15% goes to Urbina with the bulk of the remaining 15% coming via decision. I'm going to put at least 1.50 units on the outcome

Burns wins in round 3 +630: real quick. Tractor has very suspect conditioning and he missed weight. Burns is a BJJ phenom and alread demonstrated that he can get the finish in the final frame as he did against the Brazilian Cowboy. At these juicy odds this is definitely worth a small play.

Formiga wins by submission + 400 : quite simply, Formiga is one of the best back takers in the division and he can become a human backpack from any position. If he (At least 0.5 units) [spoiler/] can get Ortiz's back there's a very good chance he sinks in the hooks and wraps up a quick submission. There's also a good chance Ortiz gets the takedown but the Brazilian BJJ black belt snatches an arm or locks up a triangle. Juicy A is one of the slickest submission artists in the lower weight classes and he's ripe for a tap out. This is a great prop bet. (At least 0.3 units)

I still suck shit at picking props with + odds. The only props that I'm playing are the fairly obvious ones that are moderate favs.
 
Wich bet is safer Trinaldo dec or Barao dec what do u guys think ????

Idk why you're comparing those two fights.. so you should reconsider whatever your strategy is...

But definitely barao dec, imo. Nover has never legitimately been finished. The Bradley one was a bad stoppage.
 
Idk why you're comparing those two fights.. so you should reconsider whatever your strategy is...

But definitely barao dec, imo. Nover has never legitimately been finished. The Bradley one was a bad stoppage.
Im just doing a fun parlay wanted to know wich one is more possible lol
 
Man, if Hector Urbinas TDD and fight IQ didn't look like garbage his last fight betting on that fight to go the distance would be sweet. Obviously the odds is there for a reason. But has anyone heard what he's been up to? It's been about 10 months since he fought. Maybe he realised his TDD is shit and has worked diligently on it. Can't find any pre fight interviews with him though
 
Man, if Hector Urbinas TDD and fight IQ didn't look like garbage his last fight betting on that fight to go the distance would be sweet. Obviously the odds is there for a reason. But has anyone heard what he's been up to? It's been about 10 months since he fought. Maybe he realised his TDD is shit and has worked diligently on it. Can't find any pre fight interviews with him though

He was supposed to fight sullivan a couple months ago, Sully pulled out on fight day or the day before
 
u1.5 -235
u1.0 -198
Nelson ML -440
Nelson R1 -165

Value on Nelson R1 at the moment compared to the unders and Nelson's ML
 
I can't use Will Hill, but they have Cyborg R1 -149. It's -250 on 5d
 
agree with all of his picks other than the chagas/silva fight which i just wouldn't touch.

 
A bunch of dogs are getting bet right now

yep, pepey down to -115, trinaldo down to -115 (this one's more gradual), yahya down to -110, chagas down to -115.. gillespie has dropped a bunch today, too

the huge dogs aren't getting bet, tho.. looks like all of the closer odds fights are balancing out
 
Taking a stab at Pepey/De Lat Torre for FOTN at +650. Pepey's wild ass style lends itself to crazy fights against a lot of guys (unless like Elkins they can take him down and control him). Yeah he'll fade if it goes past 2 rounds but I have a feeling if De La Torre lasts past rd 1 this will end up a "just bleed" fan's type of fight.
 
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