UFN 98 - Ferguson vs RDA - Mexico City

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

RDA is training up Mammouth mountain currently. But I agree I favour Ferg if this goes late and is a high paced war of attrition.

Seems like he got there a few days ago, glad he brought Beneil with him. I think Tony has done entire camp at Big Bear.

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

To each their own. RDA's performance vs Pettis was one of the most sublime in UFC history to me. Was very smart of Ferg to go to Big Bear though. Ultimately though, like I said too speculative for me. Saying Ferg will have a cardio advantage has no merit, there is nothing that definitively shows that will be the case at all.

The pace Ferguson fights at and keeps through out the fight is more intense than any other LW's IMO, Thompson fight is good example. I think anyone is at a disadvantage when fighting Tony at elevation, he's probably got the best cardio at 155, I can't prove this but everything is basically speculation when trying to predict the outcome of a fight. I feel confident that the elevation works in Tony's favour.

 

[cCrown]

To each their own. RDA's performance vs Pettis was one of the most sublime in UFC history to me. Was very smart of Ferg to go to Big Bear though. Ultimately though, like I said too speculative for me. Saying Ferg will have a cardio advantage has no merit, there is nothing that definitively shows that will be the case at all.

Yeah i agree with this. Ferguson has never gone the 5 round distance. Dos anjos did and looked great in his 5 rounder against pettis but he dominated that fight the whole way through so you don't get a complete picture of his 5 round cardio. I do know that since he started training with nick curson his strength and conditioning looks better than it ever did.

 

[Joseph Budden]

The pace Ferguson fights at and keeps through out the fight is more intense than any other LW's IMO, Thompson fight is good example. I think anyone is at a disadvantage when fighting Tony at elevation, he's probably got the best cardio at 155, I can't prove this but everything is basically speculation when trying to predict the outcome of a fight. I feel confident that the elevation works in Tony's favour.

The pace in those fights is really no different than RDA vs Pettis, and that was 5 rounds. In a way everything is speculation, but there is no merit to the speculative nature of this discussion. I'm not denying Ferg's cardio is amazing, i'm just saying there has been nothing seen from RDA at all that would suggest this is something you can consider an advantage on Ferg's end. Same goes for RDA. So to me, its a wash and I look to other factors.

 

[Stunna77]

Initially was thinking Ferg would catch RDA at some point and put him away, based on RDA being rocked in past fights, however after reading the arguments both ways and rewatching some of their fights I slightly favor RDA as well. Barboza was piecing Tony up until Tony broke him in the 2nd (which was very impressive btw) and Lando throughly outstruck him while he was fresh. Add in that RDA has MUCH better wrestling, BJJ and cardio than Barb and two-week Lando and I think RDA can sustain that for five rounds or do enough should it go to a DEC. Also not ruling out RDA finishing Ferg as he has power and Ferg is so hittable.

I obviously would not be shocked if Ferg weathered some early trouble and eventually put enough damage on RDA to finish him, however it isn't like RDA gets rocked often when looking at who he has been in the cage with. Alverez hit him with some huge shots and he was still standing, albeit possibly out on his feet. Think the lines are appropriate and might just enjoy this one with no skin in the game!

 

[BigNick100]

Initially was thinking Ferg would catch RDA at some point and put him away, based on RDA being rocked in past fights, however after reading the arguments both ways and rewatching some of their fights I slightly favor RDA as well. Barboza was piecing Tony up until Tony broke him in the 2nd (which was very impressive btw) and Lando throughly outstruck him while he was fresh. Add in that RDA has MUCH better wrestling, BJJ and cardio than Barb and two-week Lando and I think RDA can sustain that for five rounds or do enough should it go to a DEC. Also not ruling out RDA finishing Ferg as he has power and Ferg is so hittable.

I obviously would not be shocked if Ferg weathered some early trouble and eventually put enough damage on RDA to finish him, however it isn't like RDA gets rocked often when looking at who he has been in the cage with. Alverez hit him with some huge shots and he was still standing, albeit possibly out on his feet. Think the lines are appropriate and might just enjoy this one with no skin in the game!

This is 100% how I feel too. I had Ferguson initially, but after deep reviews and tape watching I've switched to RDA. People have good arguments both way, and to each it's own.

Btw totally random but have people keep track of the W-L predictions and posted it here? Even though I've been reading Sherdog every day since 2006, I only recently actually started posting a few months ago and made my first predictions on 2 fights at UFC 202, and been posting my predictions on a couple fights each card. I think I am going to go back and look at my W-L predictions and post it here, and start adding ito it each time I made a prediction. People might not care but I think it will be cool to see how I'm doing.

 

[Stunna77]

Not that people should be strictly tailing posters without forming their own opinion on how fights will go, but it would be interesting to see how people here do on picking fights. I don't post often, usually because by the time i check the thread it is 30 pages long and I can't catch up, but I may try to do that as well.

 

[Sham5916910]

This is 100% how I feel too. I had Ferguson initially, but after deep reviews and tape watching I've switched to RDA. People have good arguments both way, and to each it's own.

Btw totally random but have people keep track of the W-L predictions and posted it here? Even though I've been reading Sherdog every day since 2006, I only recently actually started posting a few months ago and made my first predictions on 2 fights at UFC 202, and been posting my predictions on a couple fights each card. I think I am going to go back and look at my W-L predictions and post it here, and start adding ito it each time I made a prediction. People might not care but I think it will be cool to see how I'm doing.

I made a post on this exact thing a week or so ago. Posted my results from last 12 events (main pre bet only not props or lb).

 

[BigNick100]

I made a post on this exact thing a week or so ago. Posted my results from last 12 events (main pre bet only not props or lb).

I'm curious to check it out, where is it exactly? I don't want anyone to tale me and that't not the purpose of it, it's just to separate the regular fight fan giving insight from the very knowledgeable ones. I already know a few posters on here that I respect!

Here is my record so far. All the names I put down are people who I thought would win.

Conor - W = 1-0
Glover - L = 1-1
Pettis - W = 2-1
Maia - W = 3-1
Barnett - W = 4-1
Stipe - W = 5-1
Brunson - W = 6-1
Muhammad - W = 7-1
Dunham - W = 8-1
Poirier - L = 8-2
Randy Brown - W = 9-2
Franca - L = 9-3
Alan Patrick - W - 10-4
Erick Silva - W = 11-4
Santos - L = 11-5
Nelson - W = 12-5
Cyborg - W = 13-5
Marquart - W = 14-5
Burkman - L = 14-6
Brooks - L = 14-7
Dodson - L = 14-8
Danny Roberts - L = 14-9
Bisbing - W = 15-9
Nakamura - L - = 15-10


Overall = 15-10 for %60.00 Sucess

Underdog picks -
Erick Silva - W
Alan Patrick - W
Marquart - W

3-0 on underdog picks.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm curious to check it out, where is it exactly? I don't want anyone to tale me and that't not the purpose of it, it's just to separate the regular fight fan giving insight from the very knowledgeable ones. I already know a few posters on here that I respect!

Here is my record so far. All the names I put down are people who I thought would win.

Conor - W = 1-0
Glover - L = 1-1
Pettis - W = 2-1
Maia - W = 3-1
Barnett - W = 4-1
Stipe - W = 5-1
Brunson - W = 6-1
Muhammad - W = 7-1
Dunham - W = 8-1
Poirier - L = 8-2
Randy Brown - W = 9-2
Franca - L = 9-3
Alan Patrick - W - 10-4
Erick Silva - W = 11-4
Santos - L = 11-5
Nelson - W = 12-5
Cyborg - W = 13-5
Marquart - W = 14-5
Burkman - L = 14-6
Brooks - L = 14-7
Dodson - L = 14-8
Danny Roberts - L = 14-9
Bisbing - W = 15-9

Overall = 15-9 for %62.5 Sucess

Underdog picks -
Erick Silva - W
Alan Patrick - W
Marquart - W

3-0 on underdog picks.

Think its in the general mma thread prob two weeks ago. Our winning % not a million miles apart. Its defo a good idea to track your bets.

 

[MacPherson911]

It's a picture of a rapper called Stitches, don't worry ima change it soon

hahahaha serious question: is this guy a joke? like, does he take himself seriously? cuz if not this song is fucking awesome!!!

 

[null]

hahahaha serious question: is this guy a joke? like, does he take himself seriously? cuz if not this song is fucking awesome!!!

I usually ignore embedded videos, but that was the funniest thing I have ever seen.

 

[mkess101]

The pace in those fights is really no different than RDA vs Pettis, and that was 5 rounds. In a way everything is speculation, but there is no merit to the speculative nature of this discussion. I'm not denying Ferg's cardio is amazing, i'm just saying there has been nothing seen from RDA at all that would suggest this is something you can consider an advantage on Ferg's end. Same goes for RDA. So to me, its a wash and I look to other factors.

RDA pushed the pace vs Pettis, fought a great fight, but still not the same as the frenetic constant pressure applied by Ferg. I'm not saying that means Ferg definitely has the cardio advantage or that RDA can't go 5 hard rounds, just that what Ferg does is just different than what anyone else does. He applies pressure regardless of if he's getting hit, regardless of if there's good countering against him. He literally doesn't care as long as he can turn the fight into a war of attrition as he believes he can absorb more than his opponent can. This has always been his M.O. to a degree, but he's really seemed to ramp up this way of fighting over his last 3-4 fights. I said it before, I'll say it again. It is EXTREMELY mentally taxing in MMA to have someone that just keeps coming at you like he does even if you are landing effective offense. When you see guys wilt under his pressure despite landing on him a lot early, I think this is absolutely part of the reason for it.

And make no mistake, at some point it's going to lead to an extremely quick decline when his chin and ability to take damage start to go. This way of fighting is exciting and extremely effective when matched with the skillset of someone like Ferg. But it's only sustainable for so long. Ferg is not a guy who will be a top LW for years and years if he continues to fight with this style.

 

[TheDawg(secondcoming)]

hahahaha serious question: is this guy a joke? like, does he take himself seriously? cuz if not this song is fucking awesome!!!

100% serious, this song is just the tip of the iceberg, go check his other work and IG. Theres a couple vids of him getting beat up as well lol

 

[piglord]

for me rda/ferg just seems like pure gambling, there are so many variables to account for. my initial lean was ferg but i think dariush might be a better dog at slightly more generous odds.

 

[MacPherson911]

I usually ignore embedded videos, but that was the funniest thing I have ever seen.

dude I went on a 3 hour Stitches related Youtube blackhole. The treasures are abundant! videos, interviews, live performances. If you have a few free hours I recommend you do the same.

 

[MacPherson911]

100% serious, this song is just the tip of the iceberg, go check his other work and IG. Theres a couple vids of him getting beat up as well lol

I just spent a few hours on Youtube...let me just say.."I just popped a Molly....now I'm tryna fuck Miley Cyrus!!" I think the Nobel prize peeps jumped the gun when they tagged Dylan last week.

 

[Wangyanqing]

fuck…I heared UFC will cut the events of the year from 40+ to 30+. It means we get less fights to bet？！？！

 

[Sham5916910]

fuck…I heared UFC will cut the events of the year from 40+ to 30+. It means we get less fights to bet？！？！

Fuck this is awful. Where you hear this? Thats potentially 25% less betting income. Feel like ive just been given a severe pay cut.

 

[Brick Top]