I don't know why you'd think Diego wouldn't want to wrestle other than the brainfarts hes had in the past where he becomes a 'just bang' bro. I really doubt Diego is that afraid of Held's guardNot really.
However "held will absolutely take him down early if he wants to" is a bold statement.
Yeah idk for me personally thats a completely different matchup. I was on Goiti itd knowing he'd sub Couture on the mat. But Couture isn't a very good grappler, at least not comparable to Goiti. Diego, on the other hand, shows no reason to believe he can't hang with Held on the mat.This is like a couple weeks ago when vivisection guys picked coutute over yamauchi.. and Zane said "idk, maybe Yamauchi can hang on the ground with couture"
My head exploded
I don't know why you'd think Diego wouldn't want to wrestle other than the brainfarts hes had in the past where he becomes a 'just bang' bro. I really doubt Diego is that afraid of Held's guard
When does Diego ever end up on his back though? And i'm not convinced Held is a good enough scrambler to consistently work over Diego who I view as the better wrestler and just as good at jiu jitsu. He just doesn't have the killer instinct with subs or the 'special move' like Held's leglocks.Not necessarily Held's guard but the fact Diego could end up on his back in a scramble or that Held can use leglocks as sweeps so well.
That said Diego's grappling is so underrated. The guy lasted 12 minutes with fucking Marcelo at ADCC as a purple belt! For reference Marcelo subbed Aoki in about a minute in his prior match that year.
Its a big question mark. I see a lot of media touts talking about how amazing his tdd is, but who has he fought? Dariush isn't a great wrestler, but hes better than anyone Rashid has fought in the past at that aspect, and he definitely has the credentials where you can assume a decent probability of him controlling Rashid on the ground if he can get it thereWhat exactly do we know about Magomedov's ground game? What are the chances of him doing a "Tumenov"?
Yeah, even though I am taking a chance on Diego, Diego dec and o2.5 I think the smartest combination here is o2.5 and Held round 1.Guys, Diego and Held both like to go to decision and this fight is in Mexico. Even if held fights better he might get robbed.
that 165lb rule could affect bronx
Watch the Tony martin fight. He had one crazy armbar escape there, dude is tough but he is not in Dariush level.What exactly do we know about Magomedov's ground game? What are the chances of him doing a "Tumenov"?
Not that it really matters but those aren't actually Luke Thomas' picks, he didn't do them for this event for some reason. Danny Segura is the author (you can tell, the writing is nowhere near as good as normal, it's pretty bad)Luke Thomas's main card picks. History has shown that he is very good at predicting main cards.. but usually he makes more mistakes with his undercard picks so I just post his main card picks)
Ferguson
Sanchez
Lamas
Puelles
Dariush
Grasso
I think the only way to play Lamas-Oliv now is to lb Lamas after round 1. If Oliv doesn't get him out of there quick he's fucked .
In all honesty I think this is a bad card for betting which is annoying since it's been so long since a UFC event. There's not one bet I really like, lines seem right and the elevation just makes every bet dodgyagreed. olviera could be considerably bigger in the cage than lamas and im betting that charles wins the first ten minutes before possibly gassing. oliveras problem is that he can be chinny but his questionable punch resistance might not apply to lamas. good chance that ricardo is going to be offered at much better odds in lb
He's a bitch bro...what? Lol
Sure but it will also mean he wont be able to fully rehydrate until the morning of the fight, that is if his walking weight is >165rehydration clauses are generally the morning of the fight (ibf boxing) and if that is the case here it wont prevent olviera from coming into the cage heavier than 165.
I wonder how much he's gonna have to rehydrate tho? The fact that he was eating cheeseburgers until very recently would suggest that he hardly cut anything at all but who knows.Sure but it will also mean he wont be able to fully rehydrate until the morning of the fight, that is if he is walking weight is >165