UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

[EzFlyer]

Fuckkkk I forgot that disqualifies him!!!!

Idk if it's an official dq from fotn but it is sure as hell hard to get it. I think alves is dq'd for it but not miller.. In theory, miller could get whole thing... In fact didn't that once happen? Oddly enough with miller? Vs healy? I guess that was different, post fight doping violation

 

[EzFlyer]

What time do fightpass prelims start?

7 et

 

[mkess101]

I see it the same way on the 11, said as much (albeit less detailed) last night !

Thoughts on no subs +409? Honestly, hedge with Tate by sub and seems like a good play. It's 11 fights I realize and it could get tripped up somewhere unexpected for sure, but man none of these fights seem likely AT ALL to end by sub (maybe minus Cupcake). I played it for .2u, thoughts?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Idk if it's an official dq from fotn but it is sure as hell hard to get it. I think alves is dq'd for it but not miller.. In theory, miller could get whole thing... In fact didn't that once happen? Oddly enough with miller? Vs healy? I guess that was different, post fight doping violation

Either way, if I had remembered how they shy away from post fight bonuses for people who miss weight I would've passed lol luckily only .10u

 

[Joseph Budden]

Thoughts on no subs +409? Honestly, hedge with Tate by sub and seems like a good play. It's 11 fights I realize and it could get tripped up somewhere unexpected for sure, but man none of these fights seem likely AT ALL to end by sub (maybe minus Cupcake). I played it for .2u, thoughts?

I wanted to get a good no sub line, eyed it earlier, but just not sure +409 is juicy enough for me

 

[EzFlyer]

Fastest KO:

Romero +775
MJ +1775

Hitting both of these small.

Zero fights end in sub +409. I can't find one that I think is very likely to end in a sub. I think this could hit. Playing it for a bit.

Also adding Tate/Pennington FOTN +900. I think it could be a really fun fight.

I thought about that +409 no subs, too. it's not bad.

Alvarez has best chance for a sub, followed by Tate, edgar, luque, miller, caemocuhe I guess? In no particular order... I could easily see the +409 hitting... Even tho I want an eddie sub hehe.. perfect world: no subs until main event , double freeroll

 

[EzFlyer]

Wow. Belal/Vicente could really be a good action fight and it's 20/1 for FOTN. That's crazy good odds.

Jesus Christ these euro prices. Someone told me jj kk fotn was +1000, too.

I played jj kk +400 and belal luque +1000, lol.

 

[mkess101]

I wanted to get a good no sub line, eyed it earlier, but just not sure +409 is juicy enough for me

Meh, I also forgot Miller I guess but am hedged already on that with his sub line at +555. Frankie? Natal? Weidman? I'm trying to think who could win by sub here where I wouldn't be really, really shocked. It's Cupcake and Miller honestly.

 

[mkess101]

I thought about that +409 no subs, too. it's not bad.

Alvarez has best chance for a sub, followed by Tate, edgar, luque, caemocuhe I guess? In no particular order... I could easily see the +409 hitting... Even tho I want an eddie sub hehe.. perfect world: no subs until main event , double freeroll

Yeah Eddie I suppose. Although if it goes deep and Eddie gets mount like Nate did I see Conor going out on his sword this time, not giving his back. I don't know what other sub Eddie has any sort of a realistic shot at. Luque and Carmouche? I suppose.

+409 is literally JUST good enough to play for me here. Gonna keep it at .2u though.

 

[EzFlyer]

1. Meh, I also forgot Miller I guess but am hedged already on that with his sub line at +555. Frankie? Natal? Weidman? I'm trying to think who could win by sub here where I wouldn't be really, really shocked. It's Cupcake and Miller honestly.

U1.5 subs -117?

 

[mkess101]

U1.5 subs -117?

Hmm. -117 to +409 is a big gap. I'm gonna stick to no subs and let it ride.

 

[mkess101]

Adding to Conor -115. Too good to pass up. To me Eddie is just too hittable and as I pointed out earlier, cannot afford to get clipped and dropped like Nate could. Conor isn't afraid of Eddie's guard like he was Nate's. If Conor drops him there's gnp coming soon after and fair or not, Conor may get the benefit of a quicker stoppage than some other guys if he's pounding away.

Conor actually looks bigger too. Should have the reach advantage, has a more varied striking game, and is less shopworn. At LW there's very bad matchups for Conor (like the guy we saw last weekend) but I really don't think Eddie is on that list. (Doesn't mean Eddie has no path to victory because he does, but this isn't a pick 'em fight or even close imo).

 

[Brick Top]

Is there a reason i shouldn't put 10u on Wonderboy to win by KO or decision, 2u on Woodley round 1 +800 and 1u on Woodley round 2 +1400 for essentially a guaranteed 5u profit?


@Sham5916910 @Joseph Budden @JimGunn

Guaranteed profit unless Woodley somehow beats Wonderboy while he's gassed in round 3 onwards, or if Wonderboy somehow subs Woodley...

 

[mkess101]

Is there a reason i shouldn't put 10u on Wonderboy to win by KO or decision, 2u on Woodley round 1 +800 and 1u on Woodley round 2 +1400 for essentially a guaranteed 5u profit?


@Sham5916910 @Joseph Budden @JimGunn

Guaranteed profit unless Woodley somehow beats Wonderboy while he's gassed in round 3 onwards, or if Wonderboy somehow subs Woodley...

Didn't ask me but I'd say it's a good play. WB isn't gonna sub Woodley, hard to imagine him even thinking about attempting one. One thing I'd say it to maybe add .5u or something on Woodley rd 3 at +1850 or whatever. Just in case it's a slower pace through 2 rounds and it takes a little longer for Woodley to get tired.

Otherwise I like the play.

 

[Brick Top]

Didn't ask me but I'd say it's a good play. WB isn't gonna sub Woodley, hard to imagine him even thinking about attempting one. One thing I'd say it to maybe add .5u or something on Woodley rd 3 at +1850 or whatever. Just in case it's a slower pace through 2 rounds and it takes a little longer for Woodley to get tired.

Otherwise I like the play.

10u Wonderboy KO or DEC @ 1.72
2u Woodley round 1 @ +800
1u Woodley round 2 @ +1400
0.8u Woodley round 3 @ +2000

Guaranteed 3.32u profit

About 2u if you do Wonderboy's ML instead

 

[Deleted member 448575]

Nothing is ever guaranteed in MMA betting but I have a very similar play and I feel optimistic about it

 

[BigNick100]

My final picks I like -

Natal - Miller - JJ - Yoel- Woodley

Going with 3 underdogs here in Woodley, Yoel and Miller.

I had picked Eddie originally but I now see it as 50/50. I'm a Conor fan so I could be bias, but I did a breakdown that I thought Eddie would win a couple weeks ago, so there you go. Head says Eddie, heart says Conor.

I have a feeling about Stephens for some reason. He is on a nice streak, his confident is sky high and all it takes it that one bomb, even though Frankie has a iron chin. Just a feeling, not saying Stephens will win but looking at his line I will take a small stab at his ML and KO prop. Same could be said about Johnson too!

Good Luck all! MSG IS UPON US, FUCK YA!!!!

 

[Brick Top]

Nothing is ever guaranteed in MMA betting but I have a very similar play and I feel optimistic about it

It's like Hendo vs Bisping 2 except Woodley is more explosive and Wonderboy has better striking defense and tools at range. If Woodley won in round 4 or 5 I'd take 50 paracetamols and fall asleep in my garage with my car on

 

[Joseph Budden]

Meh, I also forgot Miller I guess but am hedged already on that with his sub line at +555. Frankie? Natal? Weidman? I'm trying to think who could win by sub here where I wouldn't be really, really shocked. It's Cupcake and Miller honestly.

Luque is a big threat for that line too

Is there a reason i shouldn't put 10u on Wonderboy to win by KO or decision, 2u on Woodley round 1 +800 and 1u on Woodley round 2 +1400 for essentially a guaranteed 5u profit?


@Sham5916910 @Joseph Budden @JimGunn

Guaranteed profit unless Woodley somehow beats Wonderboy while he's gassed in round 3 onwards, or if Wonderboy somehow subs Woodley...

I like it for sure. Jealous you guys get those lines that cover the two most likely outcomes from one side

 

[Brick Top]

If you wanna be a cheeky kunt

10u Joanna + Wonderboy KO/dec @ +117
2.4u Woodley round 1 @ +800
1.4u Woodley round 2 @ +1400
1u Woodley round 3 @ +2000

Guaranteed 6.81u profit