UFC 205 - Conor vs Alvarez - NY

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^ i really hope you win those but you're playing with fire
 
he did take rd 1 vs cerrone.. i'm serious i think miller's won rd 1 like the last 12 fights, think diaz in '12 or something was last time he didn't win the first?

alves slow starter sometimes, too.. was against mein.. was against condit..

Which tells me its possible to get Alves at plus odds during live betting

Alves should blitz Miller

Alves has some of the most crisp striking on the entire roster and has been using it to beat guys who massively outsize him in terms of height and reach. Miller is his height and reach, therefore i have Thiago lighting him up
 
My initial lean which was strong was Eddie and I have shifted after seeing Eddie isn't anything special wrestling and is quite hittable

I was also really impressed with Conor ability to show new stuff specifically leg kicks that had some oomph on the against Nate.

Ev I bin wrung yet?

How much do you have on Alves ?
 
Who else likes Jim Miller here. Look closely Thiago's record. His last good win was Mein. But he was losing that fight until he pulled off that monsterous kick. Alves going weight class down and is probaly off steroids now. Ring rust also. I see Miller getting the W here.

Latest thiago sighting



Total opposite

Alves was holding his own against Condit and Mein, both huge guys who tower over him and have a reach advantage, he went on to beat Mein too. He also dominated Kampmann until his brain fart

Alves has spent years being undersized and fighting bigger taller more powerful strikers. He has also spent years facing the best wrestlers at WW.

Now he is facing a someone his own size, who doesnt have a height or sizeable reach advantage, i think Thiagos striking will just light Miller up so badly. Thiago also has the TD defense to stop any TD

He hasnt had a hard cut either as he quit the cut half way through and just wrote it off as a lost cause

I think he should handle Miller, Alves can be a champion at LW
 
Total opposite

Alves was holding his own against Condit and Mein, both huge guys who tower over him and have a reach advantage, he went on to beat Mein too. He also dominated Kampmann until his brain fart

Alves has spent years being undersized and fighting bigger taller more powerful strikers. He has also spent years facing the best wrestlers at WW.

Now he is facing a someone his own size, who doesnt have a height or sizeable reach advantage, i think Thiagos striking will just light Miller up so badly. Thiago also has the TD defense to stop any TD

He hasnt had a hard cut either as he quit the cut half way through and just wrote it off as a lost cause

I think he should handle Miller, Alves can be a champion at LW

Dude, Mein was wrecking Thiago until the one body kick changed the fight.
 
Willhill has JJ/KK FOTN +800 and Belal/Luque FOTN +1800! They also run a promotion where u can put a max stake of £50 on McGregor at evens (+100).
 
What time do fightpass prelims start?

Fight Pass Prelims: 7pm / 4pm PT / 12am UK

Thiago Alves vs Jim Miller

Liz Carmouche vs Katlyn Chookagian

6 hours and 10 minutes to go or
12am for UK but easier to bookmark this link which has the count down timer

https://www.ufc.tv/video/ufc-205-fight-pass-prelims


10u Wonderboy KO or DEC @ 1.72
2u Woodley round 1 @ +800
1u Woodley round 2 @ +1400
0.8u Woodley round 3 @ +2000

Guaranteed 3.32u profit

About 2u if you do Wonderboy's ML instead

Yup been eyeing this exact combination, hedging is for pussies but I enjoy being a richer pussy then a wet one.
 
Total opposite

Alves was holding his own against Condit and Mein, both huge guys who tower over him and have a reach advantage, he went on to beat Mein too. He also dominated Kampmann until his brain fart

Alves has spent years being undersized and fighting bigger taller more powerful strikers. He has also spent years facing the best wrestlers at WW.

Now he is facing a someone his own size, who doesnt have a height or sizeable reach advantage, i think Thiagos striking will just light Miller up so badly. Thiago also has the TD defense to stop any TD

He hasnt had a hard cut either as he quit the cut half way through and just wrote it off as a lost cause

I think he should handle Miller, Alves can be a champion at LW
<{cruzshake}>
 
Agree with others looks a decision or overs type card

Liz, Chook, miller, natal, frankie, jj and kk all known regular decisioners.

Am liking:

Chook
Miller
belal
natal
khabib
frankie
raquel
weidman
JJ
WB after r2
Alvarez after r2-r3

Tons of dogs tonight in Woodley, KK, Yoel, Mj though
 
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Total opposite

Alves was holding his own against Condit and Mein, both huge guys who tower over him and have a reach advantage, he went on to beat Mein too. He also dominated Kampmann until his brain fart

Alves has spent years being undersized and fighting bigger taller more powerful strikers. He has also spent years facing the best wrestlers at WW.

Now he is facing a someone his own size, who doesnt have a height or sizeable reach advantage, i think Thiagos striking will just light Miller up so badly. Thiago also has the TD defense to stop any TD

He hasnt had a hard cut either as he quit the cut half way through and just wrote it off as a lost cause

I think he should handle Miller, Alves can be a champion at LW

Nevermind I changed my mind. I am also all Alves now. Watched the tape and made some conclusions.
 
Conor McGregor @ 1.75
Fight Winner

Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez

Joanna Jedrzejczyk @ 1.25
Fight Winner

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Meisha Tate @ 1.67
Fight Winner

Meisha Tate vs Raquel Pennington

Frankie Edgar @ 1.30
Fight Winner

Frankie Edgar vs Jeremy Stephens

Yoel Romero @ 2.40
Fight Winner

Chris Weidman vs Yoel Romero

Stake: $25.00Potential Returns: $ 284.3
 
For me it's hard to cap the U/O on total KOs and decisions for this card, it feels like it could be all over the place but the over decision props offers atleast a little bit of value imo. I'm going to bet scared and pay the juice for O4.5 DECs. Also placing 0.5 units on U1.5 submissions.

Don't see any value in Johnson's line(probably not betting khabib though).
And f- it, 1u on Conor McGregor.

Regarding Romero in close rounds versus Weidman:
Is the hometurf bias really that bad in judging?
We all remember those robberies in brazil, random locations in us and europe but I'm not sold on this bias is such a big of a problem that you guys make it out to be. There have been plenty of robberies that went the other way. I wouldn't let this variable affect my capping that much. It would be near impossible to actually prove or disprove this theory because who is going to judge what was a "robbery" and not a robbery and compare the numbers. It would be too subjective.

That said I have no $ on this fight... yet.
 
If Joanna and Wonderboy don't win tonight I will officially quit this forum forever.
 
Which tells me its possible to get Alves at plus odds during live betting

Alves should blitz Miller

Alves has some of the most crisp striking on the entire roster and has been using it to beat guys who massively outsize him in terms of height and reach. Miller is his height and reach, therefore i have Thiago lighting him up

Ehh... I wouldn't say that at all. He's kind of an old school muay thai brawler, with pretty bad pure boxing and movement.

I actually think Miller has the more technical stand up. He has pretty nice elbows which should pay dividends in this matchup.
 
Total opposite

Alves was holding his own against Condit and Mein, both huge guys who tower over him and have a reach advantage, he went on to beat Mein too. He also dominated Kampmann until his brain fart

Alves has spent years being undersized and fighting bigger taller more powerful strikers. He has also spent years facing the best wrestlers at WW.

Now he is facing a someone his own size, who doesnt have a height or sizeable reach advantage, i think Thiagos striking will just light Miller up so badly. Thiago also has the TD defense to stop any TD

He hasnt had a hard cut either as he quit the cut half way through and just wrote it off as a lost cause

I think he should handle Miller, Alves can be a champion at LW
Disagree with almost all of that... Especially the Thiago LW champ part
 
If Joanna and Wonderboy don't win tonight I will officially quit this forum forever.
You might as well pack your bags now and prepare yourself to suck Barry's dick in the land of obscurity because Wonderboy is getting his toes curled later today when Woodley touches his chin.
 
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