Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - November, 2016

[t6p]

Rockets are road favorites? Or is it basically a pick? I'd prob stay away from Houston or at least dont go too big. Also, I'm PRETTY sure the game two weeks ago ws in Houston, not Utah

Rockets are slight road favorites. Yeah, as with almost all of my NBA stuff I went small on it.

And you're right, I was concentrating on something else at work. The game was in Houston. What I meant to say was that makes me nervous because these teams are fairly evenly matched and beating a team on their home floor after you just recently beat them on your's is usually tough. I just like the way the Rockets are playing right now and this is a back-to-back road/home for Utah. Not overly confident though obviously.

 

[chill doggie]

Fell in love with Rockets -1.5 against a Utah Jazz playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back.
Half smashed that line last night and of course I wake up to it being -2.5 now.

Tempted to downright smang it, seems like the value I've been waiting for a couple days now.

Actually the line opened at Rockets -2, sometime last night got betted down to -1.5, then -2.5 this morning, now it's -1.5 again.

I'm probably going to tail you on this.

Also looking at Pistons +3. This is going to be the Hornets 4th game in 5 days. Outside of their win last night in Memphis, their defense has been bad. They coughed up a 21 point lead to the Knicks on Saturday night (but still won the game). On the flipside, the Pistons are 1-8 on the road. This would be more of a fade of Charlotte in this spot than anything. Any thoughts?

Pistons 1-8 on the road:

11/26/16 @ Oklahoma City L 88-106 Regular Season L 4.5 U 203.5
11/25/16 L.A. Clippers W 108-97 Regular Season W 6.5 O 200.5
11/23/16 Miami W 107-84 Regular Season W -4.5 O 189
11/21/16 Houston L 96-99 Regular Season L 2.5 U 208.5
11/19/16 Boston L 92-94 Regular Season L -2 U 201
11/18/16 @ Cleveland L 81-104 Regular Season L 8.5 U 202.5
11/16/16 @ New York L 102-105 Regular Season L 2 O 200.5
11/14/16 Oklahoma City W 104-88 Regular Season W 1 U 203
11/12/16 @ Denver W 106-95 Regular Season W 5 U 202.5
11/11/16 @ San Antonio L 86-96 Regular Season L 9 U 194
11/09/16 @ Phoenix L 100-107 Regular Season L -4 O 205.5
11/07/16 @ L.A. Clippers L 82-114 Regular Season L 8.5 U 197
11/05/16 Denver W 103-86 Regular Season W -4.5 U 201
11/02/16 @ Brooklyn L 101-109 Regular Season L -4 O 204
11/01/16 New York W 102-89 Regular Season W -4 U 202
10/30/16 Milwaukee W 98-83 Regular Season W -7.5 U 197.5
10/28/16 Orlando W 108-82 Regular Season W -4 U 195
10/26/16 @ Toronto L 91-109 Regular Season L 6.5 O 196.5

An average road team would have won 3.6 games out of 9 if you match it up with this set of back-to-back statistics (great info overall) http://www.databasebasketball.com/content/backtoback.htm,
but those numbers also indicate that the 2nd game of a road/road back-to-back set which is the 2nd set in 4 should tally up a significant amount of detriment for the road team.
And Charlotte isn't Cleveland, Spurs, or Clippers.
Fade a tired Hornets team and cutting a capable Piston's some slack would be my play.

 

[iGnP]

Rockets are slight road favorites. Yeah, as with almost all of my NBA stuff I went small on it.

And you're right, I was concentrating on something else at work. The game was in Houston. What I meant to say was that makes me nervous because these teams are fairly evenly matched and beating a team on their home floor after you just recently beat them on your's is usually tough. I just like the way the Rockets are playing right now and this is a back-to-back road/home for Utah. Not overly confident though obviously.

I think you talked me into a play on Utah too haha

 

[t6p]

Actually the line opened at Rockets -2, sometime last night got betted down to -1.5, then -2.5 this morning, now it's -1.5 again.


Pistons 1-8 on the road:

11/26/16 @ Oklahoma City L 88-106 Regular Season L 4.5 U 203.5
11/25/16 L.A. Clippers W 108-97 Regular Season W 6.5 O 200.5
11/23/16 Miami W 107-84 Regular Season W -4.5 O 189
11/21/16 Houston L 96-99 Regular Season L 2.5 U 208.5
11/19/16 Boston L 92-94 Regular Season L -2 U 201
11/18/16 @ Cleveland L 81-104 Regular Season L 8.5 U 202.5
11/16/16 @ New York L 102-105 Regular Season L 2 O 200.5
11/14/16 Oklahoma City W 104-88 Regular Season W 1 U 203
11/12/16 @ Denver W 106-95 Regular Season W 5 U 202.5
11/11/16 @ San Antonio L 86-96 Regular Season L 9 U 194
11/09/16 @ Phoenix L 100-107 Regular Season L -4 O 205.5
11/07/16 @ L.A. Clippers L 82-114 Regular Season L 8.5 U 197
11/05/16 Denver W 103-86 Regular Season W -4.5 U 201
11/02/16 @ Brooklyn L 101-109 Regular Season L -4 O 204
11/01/16 New York W 102-89 Regular Season W -4 U 202
10/30/16 Milwaukee W 98-83 Regular Season W -7.5 U 197.5
10/28/16 Orlando W 108-82 Regular Season W -4 U 195
10/26/16 @ Toronto L 91-109 Regular Season L 6.5 O 196.5

An average road team would have won 3.6 games out of 9 if you match it up with this set of back-to-back statistics (great info overall) http://www.databasebasketball.com/content/backtoback.htm,
but those numbers also indicate that the 2nd game of a road/road back-to-back set which is the 2nd set in 4 should tally up a significant amount of detriment for the road team.
And Charlotte isn't Cleveland, Spurs, or Clippers.
Fade a tired Hornets team and cutting a capable Piston's some slack would be my play.

Shit, somehow I missed your post about the Rockets from this morning. GL, hope we get it.

Good stuff with those stats too.

 

[iGnP]

Not advocating a play but Brooklyn +10 at home seems decent. Clippers on a bit of a skid. They destroyed Brooklyn earlier in the year in LA. Home dogs of ten points are a winning proposition long term but I think there might be more value here bc of recent struggles of the clippers. Idk. Clippers could win by 30 and I wouldn't be surprised. Just wanted to throw it out there. Also believe there has been reverse line movement here

 

[chill doggie]

Rockets are slight road favorites. Yeah, as with almost all of my NBA stuff I went small on it.

And you're right, I was concentrating on something else at work. The game was in Houston. What I meant to say was that makes me nervous because these teams are fairly evenly matched and beating a team on their home floor after you just recently beat them on your's is usually tough. I just like the way the Rockets are playing right now and this is a back-to-back road/home for Utah. Not overly confident though obviously.

Rockets are 9-2 ATS on the road lol.
I'm am very much confident on this bet and don't know what's driving it down.

NBA is a category I feel very confident in gambling large sums, I'm not going bigger because I'm waiting for some money to clear but I feel like I'm going to regret not reaching outside of my bankroll.

 

[iGnP]

Rockets are 9-2 ATS on the road lol.
I'm am very much confident on this bet and don't know what's driving it down.

NBA is a category I feel very confident in gambling large sums, I'm not going bigger because I'm waiting for some money to clear but I feel like I'm going to regret not reaching outside of my bankroll.

Be careful. Revenge factor is definitely a factor

 

[iGnP]

Finalized plays
Pelicans -6 for 2u
Pistons +130 for 0.5u
Jazz -105 for 0.5u
Nets +11 for 0.5u

 

[iGnP]

I'm probably going to tail you on this.

Also looking at Pistons +3. This is going to be the Hornets 4th game in 5 days. Outside of their win last night in Memphis, their defense has been bad. They coughed up a 21 point lead to the Knicks on Saturday night (but still won the game). On the flipside, the Pistons are 1-8 on the road. This would be more of a fade of Charlotte in this spot than anything. Any thoughts?

Great fucking call on the Pistons. Glad you found the 4th game in 5 nights. Hornets just fell apart in the second half. Made a ton live betting. Cheers bro

 

[iGnP]

I actually have 0.1u on the Nets +460ish and I'm yelling at the tv after they allowed the clips to tie it up right there. Most emotional 0.1u bet ever lol

 

[iGnP]

Finalized plays
Pelicans -6 for 2u
Pistons +130 for 0.5u
Jazz -105 for 0.5u
Nets +11 for 0.5u

Clean sweep. Factoring in live betting and the ML stab on the Nets (and assuming the Jazz don't epicly meltdown), I think I'm up around +5.75u. Hopefully it's a good open for this week. Shoutout to the people who talked me into betting the Pistons and, indirectly, the Jazz. You da real MVPs

No but seriously, we need more NBA discussion. This is what can happen when we bounce ideas off of each other

 

[iGnP]

So since last Tuesday, the Hawks schedule has been:

Tuesday: Pelicans
Wednesday: @Indiana
Friday: @Utah
Sunday: @ Lakers
Monday: @GS
Tomorrow: @Suns

So unless it's too late here and I'm delirious, this will be their 6th game in 9 days and 5th straight road game. Not only that, theyre sizable favorites on the road against the Suns. While the Suns have a pathetic 5-13 record, they are 10-8 ATS. Don't get me wrong, the Hawks are a good team, but they're not an offensive powerhouse. They are an underrated defensive team that grinds the opponents down much like the Memphis Grizzlies do in the Western Conference. The bad scheduling will hurt them here. I think the fresh(er) legs of the Phoenix Suns will be able to cover this spread and perhaps win outright.

Phoenix Suns +5.5 for 1.5u
Phoenix Suns ML +185 for 0.5u

 

[t6p]

Clean sweep. Factoring in live betting and the ML stab on the Nets (and assuming the Jazz don't epicly meltdown), I think I'm up around +5.75u. Hopefully it's a good open for this week. Shoutout to the people who talked me into betting the Pistons and, indirectly, the Jazz. You da real MVPs

No but seriously, we need more NBA discussion. This is what can happen when we bounce ideas off of each other

Good stuff man, that's an awesome night. 2/3 for me and lost my tiny parlay so small profit overall.

 

[chill doggie]

Be careful. Revenge factor is definitely a factor

For reals what else did you have going for your pick other than a revenge factor?

Maybe others were seeing something I didn't in this matchup, but Rockets are 12-6 ATS and 9-3 ATS on the road compared to Jazz's 7-9 ATS and 4-4 ATS at home so rockets being favorites on the road shouldn't raise any flags unless you know something more in depth than that.
If someone more knowledgeable than me sees or saw something in the stylistic match-up favoring Jazz I would love to hear about it.

 

[iGnP]

For reals what else did you have going for your pick other than a revenge factor?

Maybe others were seeing something I didn't in this matchup, but Rockets are 12-6 ATS and 9-3 ATS on the road compared to Jazz's 7-9 ATS and 4-4 ATS at home so rockets being favorites on the road shouldn't raise any flags unless you know something more in depth than that.
If someone more knowledgeable than me sees or saw something in the stylistic match-up favoring Jazz I would love to hear about it.

So I think you're getting TOO much into the numbers. Here's what I mean w examples from the past:

My biggest play so far was on the Pelicans +3 at home versus the T Wolves. I thought the line was way too high, thinking it should prob be anywhere from pick to Pelicans -1.5. So in my opinion, the books were overrating the Timberwolves. That's when I go and look at their ATS record, to get a feel as to how correct the books have been in pricing the Wolves this season. Well, they were bad, both ATS and SU. So logically, if they have a bad ATS record and the line seemed too high, I can assume the books haven't adjusted their thoughts on the Wolves (the Wolves are a highly backed team this season. There is this notion that they were gonna be dark horses in the west coming into the season). If you ever check those websites that show you the % of public betting, that's another way of justifying the line. I believe that game had a 65% to 35% betting split, with more people on the Wolves. So why would the books need to adjust the lines if people are continuing to bet (and lose) on the Wolves. Eventually, it will happen and you can no longer fade them bc the line will be correct.

Now with all that being said, this was my thinking for Utah vs Houston: like you said, the Rockets have a stellar ATS record to date. But in the grand scheme of things, would you say that the Rockets are 3-4.5 points better than the Utah Jazz? I wouldn't. I think the teams are pretty much even, maybe a point advantage to the Rockets. Well, if you give the Jazz 3 points for home court (3.5 is prob more accurate bc they are a good home team), this line, I'm my opinion, should be more like Jazz -2.5. Then you factor in the revenge angle bc these teams are pretty even in terms of talent. Professional coaching staffs do a great job in terms of adjusting what went wrong in the first game and putting a gameplan together for the rematch (look at Brooklyn last night; they got spanked in LA earlier in the year and they beat the Clippers outright in Brooklyn last night). All these ATS trends tend to even out over the whole season. does that all make sense or did i just ramble?

 

[mma sharingan]

Will be keeping an eye out today for some lucrative live bets with 10 NBA games on..

My eyes are on Pistons (made me a killing yesterday), also will be closely watching the suns, OCT and the knicks for some live bets if they're able to get a early lead. Raptors are due for a loss to soo might put a lil bit on the grizzlies.

 

[t6p]

So since last Tuesday, the Hawks schedule has been:

Tuesday: Pelicans
Wednesday: @Indiana
Friday: @Utah
Sunday: @ Lakers
Monday: @GS
Tomorrow: @Suns

So unless it's too late here and I'm delirious, this will be their 6th game in 9 days and 5th straight road game. Not only that, theyre sizable favorites on the road against the Suns. While the Suns have a pathetic 5-13 record, they are 10-8 ATS. Don't get me wrong, the Hawks are a good team, but they're not an offensive powerhouse. They are an underrated defensive team that grinds the opponents down much like the Memphis Grizzlies do in the Western Conference. The bad scheduling will hurt them here. I think the fresh(er) legs of the Phoenix Suns will be able to cover this spread and perhaps win outright.

Phoenix Suns +5.5 for 1.5u
Phoenix Suns ML +185 for 0.5u

I like your reasoning here and will probably end up tailing. I'll also add that the Suns are 10-3 ATS as underdogs. I'm still bitter about the pathetic performance they put on in the 4th quarter last week when I bet them against the Wolves, but oh well. I do think the Hawks are better than they've been playing recently (1-6 in their last 7 games) and they'll probably turn it around sooner rather than later. They did give GS a scare at home on Monday, but I think you're right about fatigue being a major factor at this point.

 

[t6p]

Will be keeping an eye out today for some lucrative live bets with 10 NBA games on..

My eyes are on Pistons (made me a killing yesterday), also will be closely watching the suns, OCT and the knicks for some live bets if they're able to get a early lead. Raptors are due for a loss to soo might put a lil bit on the grizzlies.

Keep in mind that Memphis will be without Conley and Carter. Also, not sure if Randolph will be back after his mother passed away.

I do like the idea of a possible live bet on the Knicks. Minnesota is one of the best first half teams in the league and downright awful in the second half, the third quarter especially. If they jump out to a lead like I expect them to, we might get a nice line on NY. The Knicks have been playing better recently and even their losses have been close games.

 

[iGnP]

I like your reasoning here and will probably end up tailing. I'll also add that the Suns are 10-3 ATS as underdogs. I'm still bitter about the pathetic performance they put on in the 4th quarter last week when I bet them against the Wolves, but oh well. I do think the Hawks are better than they've been playing recently (1-6 in their last 7 games) and they'll probably turn it around sooner rather than later. They did give GS a scare at home on Monday, but I think you're right about fatigue being a major factor at this point.

Shit happens unfortunately. You capped that game well and were on the wrong end of a Flukey ending. Doesn't mean you capped the game wrong

 

[iGnP]

Regarding the Suns/Hawks:

Millsap is now questionable to play tonight w a hip injury