TUF 24 Finale - Mighty Mouse vs Elliot - Vegas

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lol just put 0.2u on both the r5 bets too

I'd take joe dec or sub but I think a tko is just as likely as sub
 
Joe are you really confident in Cuteleba over Cannonier? I know he is a good prospect, but dude has beaten nobody of mention (just looking at past oppenents records). I saw you mention Cannonier winning a split vs Tony Lopez, but Lopez has more wins than all of Cuteleba's opponents combined, granted against regional opposition. As long as Cannonier looks good from the weight cut I think I will be on him as his price is good and Cuteleba is very unproven. I don't take his KO loss as a major red flag as the placement of the punch was behind the ear and Shawn Jordan hits like a mack truck at HW. I am liking Cannonier to use his footwork and piece up Cutelaba coming in, just needs to avoid getting stuck against the fence and eating hooks. Interested to hear your thoughts as I haven't watched much tape.
 
Also have 1u on Gray, thinking he will keep it standing/use timely takedowns to win a decision, but am kind of regretting it with hte price movement and many on Hall.

With most on Font, Mas, Elvis, Kim and Moreno. Also think Moyle is one of the best dogs on the card. Think JB beats Cejudo a little easier than many seem too, not really impressed with Henry for all the hype tbh. Staying away from Clark v Stansbury as who the hell knows, same with McCann v Davis, besides putting McCann in a fun hail mary since Davis just had a kid and McCann should decide where the fight takes place.

Should note I am more like O and Mkess and pretty much bet most fights for small limits for fun, for what it's worth..
 
Joe are you really confident in Cuteleba over Cannonier? I know he is a good prospect, but dude has beaten nobody of mention (just looking at past oppenents records). I saw you mention Cannonier winning a split vs Tony Lopez, but Lopez has more wins than all of Cuteleba's opponents combined, granted against regional opposition. As long as Cannonier looks good from the weight cut I think I will be on him as his price is good and Cuteleba is very unproven. I don't take his KO loss as a major red flag as the placement of the punch was behind the ear and Shawn Jordan hits like a mack truck at HW. I am liking Cannonier to use his footwork and piece up Cutelaba coming in, just needs to avoid getting stuck against the fence and eating hooks. Interested to hear your thoughts as I haven't watched much tape.
Na i'm not confident at all lol no play on that one yet but leaning Cannonier with current prices
 
My feelings on Cannonier/Cuteleba is dog or pass.

Both have very good power and I could see either of them finishing the fight. Cuteleba is very aggressive but showed he is tough as hell and possesses a solid chin but Cannonier is going to be the heaviest puncher Cuteleba has gone up against. Cannonier got KO'ed by Shawn Jordan but Jordan is a massive HW so I don't think that told us much about his chin but I suspect that he may be able to take a few more shots coming from a guy 60 lbs lighter than Jordan.

At the current prices I am going to toss 1u on Cannonier's ML.
 
My only play so far on Cutelaba/Cannonier is 0.66u Cutelaba dec +500
 
+700 for Hall decision? Am I missing something here? Do people this ends in a finish?
 
How I see it for myself being on Maynard is, I treat taking his decision line at +250 as the same thing as his ML. He's not a finisher and he's not even going to GnP finish Hall ever in his life. That's pretty much it. This card isn't very hyped for me and I don't trust anyone on here with a huge bet. Otherwise I can also be on both sides of the coin if I played Hall's ML with a joint play on Maynard decision and my 1 out will be for Maynard not to finish this fight which I won't be sweating.

Also, I gotta wonder if Masvidal just tees off on Ellenberger if Ellenburger decides to just check out mentally. I mean it wouldn't need to be a clean KO but the ref would just step in because Jake looks for a way out. Jake is talking about pressuring Jorge but I feel like he's going to run into a bunch of counters that way and then what? He'll have to back off and then Mas moves forward and pressures him what will Jake do? State Farm will not have his back here.
 
Happy to hear Elliott has been training at elevation with a great team. DJ itd now -160 is too much for me, so DJ decision and the r4/5 props looking good to me

i did a whopping half unit at +114 :*(
 
This does certainly seem like a card with only 1u or 2u plays. I can't fall in love with any one outcome that I want to dump a serious bet on. Hopefully livebet will be good to us with some injuries that become evident on the stool or something.
 
For a non-wrestler it's bad. I have no credentials besides being the best 104'r when the best 104'r was sick and I had a significant weight advantage.
I wrestled a little bit at a good high school coach under Scott Glabb. Santa Ana HS.


Compared to Gray's wrestling credentials, Hall is less than a bum.





Break down from user @Dirty Holt who has the best wrestling credentials on sherdog IIRC.

Dude you wrestled at 104lbs? That's ridiculous I did too lol! Exactly 104. I didn't want to cut that weight but man I was pressured by my coaches. I was walking around at like 120 when I was 14. I was out of Poly HS in Long Beach, pretty close to you guys in Santa Ana.
 
Dude you wrestled at 104lbs? That's ridiculous I did too lol! Exactly 104. I didn't want to cut that weight but man I was pressured by my coaches. I was walking around at like 120 when I was 14. I was out of Poly HS in Long Beach, pretty close to Santa Ana.

Heck yes. I was a 13 year old freshman. I was 120lbs soaking wet after a big meal. Stopped wresting after a year or two and fought a few times as a teen.
About 210lbs now at 25.
 
+10,000, egads. If MM pulls another late sub they are gonna take a beating. I managed to find a round 5 sub prop at +2900 and round 4 sub prop at +2400 and thought I had it good.

where?
 
Hit McMann -3.5 at +160. Really like that. Even if Davis didn't just have a baby i'd favor McMann hugging for 3 rounds to happen more than the line reflects.
 
Amazing line. I was happy with the +425 I got.

yea i did t hat small, too, around that price.. wish i got +700, cause i don't wanna add to the +4xx play i have
 
Hit McMann -3.5 at +160. Really like that. Even if Davis didn't just have a baby i'd favor McMann hugging for 3 rounds to happen more than the line reflects.

i don't like it at all, she has virtually no chance for a stoppage... so you're relying on the decision.. i'd just do the decision at near evens if you're gonna do mcmann, just my 2c
 
i don't like it at all, she has virtually no chance for a stoppage... so you're relying on the decision.. i'd just do the decision at near evens if you're gonna do mcmann, just my 2c
On both. Maybe would've been smarter to stick to just dec, but its ok i'm pretty damn confident in McMann hugging the shit out of Davis here
 
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