UFC 206 - Pettis vs Holloway - Toronto

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As someone who has profited from past Brown and Cerrone fights- obviously this fight will be "madness" and Cerrone wont win it via "perfect technical fight". Cerrone could take aggressive grappling approach from the start and sub Matt.... or more likely it's a war on the feet where Matt has a much better chance to score with his big straight punches and elbows from the Clinch. Cerrone has said he doesn't study fights so don't wait for him to follow any gameplan.

Even if he doesn't study tape, Cowboy is well aware of Matt Brown's style and what he brings to the table. I'm sure he's seen him fight multiple times and has a pretty solid grasp of what he's all about. Cowboy can more than hold his own standing, but I think we'll likely see him look to implement some grappling in this one, like he did against Story, Cote and Oliveira.
 
The line for Cub/Choi fight is madness that is for sure, but do you guys think that we will get even better price for Cub or his line will go down?
 
Feel square as hell but I love so many favourites this weekend, did a 6 man rr parlay for 15 units, effectively staking 5 units on each fighter. Lewis, Ngannou, Anderson, Cerrone, Holloway, and Choi.

Wish I waited for the Ortiz/Zak over to add to it

was gonna say, that over is safer than just about any of those ml's
 
maybe look at pettis NSC instead of pettis ML?

I will look into NOT Max ITD, that should be a good play since Pettis is durable as fuck.
 
I think Max ML might be the biggest bet of the year for me (the biggest one so far was Diaz ITD in the rematch so be aware). I just dont see Pettis being able to handle his pace and forward movement, just as he struggled with everyone who doesnt let him play a fancy kicking game on the outside. Pettis has been figured out and is clearly not able to adjust into a style that wins rounds or gets urgent when he is losing. He keeps relying on getting that big power move to get a win and outside a hail mary sub from the bottom I just dont see it happening. He didnt look good against Oliveira, wasn't he on the verge of losing 29-28 before getting the sub? And I just feel Max is a worse fit than Oliveira. The weight cut isnt going to help him in the later rounds as he was clearly gassing last time, so I love Max here.

Might add a unit or two on the dec line as well.

Pettis is clearly having cardio issues for whatever reason. I remember i bet him against Melendez and was really worried by r2 as he seemed to be blowing out of his arse. He was also blowing hard against Olives and was on his way to losing until he pulled the guillotine out. I honestly think we have seen the best of Pettis. Max has better hands and i see him taking a decision here. Pettis has a dangerous body/high kick that Max needs to be mindful of, but outside of that i don't see how Pettis wins. Pettis has a horrible habit that he is not going to get out of of backing up against the cage and getting stuck there. I see Max on the front foot controlling the octagon and out landing Pettis especially as Pettis tires.

Have to disagree that Pettis was on his way to losing to Oliveira. Round 1 was a clear 10-8 IMO. Pettis destroyed and nearly finished him in that round and I was surprised Oliveira made it through. Worst case for Pettis was a draw I think. And again, Oliveira used his grappling to get himself back into the fight, something that Max is unlikely to do. It was also another example of how dangerous Pettis is when you give him a chance to lock in a sub. It's hard to continue to call them hail mary's when he's been able to sub Bendo, Melendez and Oliveira, some of the best grapplers in their respective divisions. Don't forget that Pettis rocked Melendez with a number of big shots before the guillotine in that second round too. Max has looked pretty durable from what we've seen but will he be able to handle the shots that Pettis almost inevitably lands even in fights he's lost?

I do agree with the cardio concerns though. If Pettis can't end this in the first 3 rounds, I think there's a strong chance he'll lose a decision. Very hard to see Max finishing him though with Pettis's durability and slick BJJ (he was in a number of dangerous positions against Oliveira and defended nicely). If I can get Pettis NSC at near evens I may go big on it.
 
The line for Cub/Choi fight is madness that is for sure, but do you guys think that we will get even better price for Cub or his line will go down?

It's definitely a step up in level for Choi, but the matchup couldn't be better for him.
 
I think Cerrone will work Brown, but an interesting thing that a couple opponents have said about Brown is that he can cover range so well. They will think they are out of range and he next thing they know he's all over them. It's strange because like you said, he's not exactly fast. I think he just uses his length well and really commits when coming in.

I can see that. He's cagey and I do think part of that is his willingness to take one to land one. He closes distance with little regard for defense. He lands and gets hit. I think his issue is that he's gonna find out what Cote and Story did: that Cowboy at 170 hits like a truck. It really does look like Cerrone was fighting a weight class too low most of his career. Stopping guys with strikes that had THAT many fights and had never been stopped before should open a lot of eyes as to the apparent power Cerrone has at 170.
 
Pettis def had some cardio issues last time he fought, but lets not forget that was his first weight cut to featherweight. I think this time the things are going to stay different. Pettis was beaten very bad by RDA for 5 rounds and he didnt showed cardio problems, so maybe the cardio red flag won`t be so big.
 
Like the over 1,5 Choi/Swanson

Imo Choi not finish Cub easy.
 
Have to disagree that Pettis was on his way to losing to Oliveira. Round 1 was a clear 10-8 IMO. Pettis destroyed and nearly finished him in that round and I was surprised Oliveira made it through. Worst case for Pettis was a draw I think. And again, Oliveira used his grappling to get himself back into the fight, something that Max is unlikely to do. It was also another example of how dangerous Pettis is when you give him a chance to lock in a sub. It's hard to continue to call them hail mary's when he's been able to sub Bendo, Melendez and Oliveira, some of the best grapplers in their respective divisions. Don't forget that Pettis rocked Melendez with a number of big shots before the guillotine in that second round too. Max has looked pretty durable from what we've seen but will he be able to handle the shots that Pettis almost inevitably lands even in fights he's lost?

I do agree with the cardio concerns though. If Pettis can't end this in the first 3 rounds, I think there's a strong chance he'll lose a decision. Very hard to see Max finishing him though with Pettis's durability and slick BJJ (he was in a number of dangerous positions against Oliveira and defended nicely). If I can get Pettis NSC at near evens I may go big on it.

10 8 or not he lost r2 and was losing r3 so not a great look. Olives was also having far more success on the feet than i thought he would. Max took conor's shots so he clearly has one hell of a chin. Clearly body kicks are different but theres no way im betting someone whos only route to victory i see is a body kick
 
10 8 or not he lost r2 and was losing r3 so not a great look. Olives was also having far more success on the feet than i thought he would. Max took conor's shots so he clearly has one hell of a chin. Clearly body kicks are different but theres no way im betting someone whos only route to victory i see is a body kick

At closer odds I'd probably be on Max too. Hell, I don't even mind a play on him at current odds. I'm just trying to look at both sides here, and I feel like Pettis isn't being given enough credit. We're talking about a guy who has fought the best of the best at LW, has finished his last 5 wins and has proven to be as durable as they come. I look at the Oliveira fight differently than you do and I also felt like McGregor was well on his way to finishing Max before the knee injury/grappling started. To me, this is a fight where one guy has at least a decent chance of finishing and the other guy has a very small chance. Hence, why I'm planning to be on Pettis NSC, pending odds of course.
 
If Cerrone were cheaper I'd cap him as my best bet. I think he gets the finish and can win it anywhere. Brown has finally cracked IMO. His berserker style wasn't going to last him forever. Wish I could put a bigger bet than my measly 20$ max.
 
I was asking for this fight at 205, and I knew if was a back up for 206, he's the real deal, I can beat him up on the feet, I'm the better kickboxer, I have more tools, I can beat him anywhere

 
I was asking for this fight at 205, and I knew if was a back up for 206, he's the real deal, I can beat him up on the feet, I'm the better kickboxer, I have more tools, I can beat him anywhere



Solid o2.5 candidate. Value is on Fat Gastum but I wouldn't be surprised if either guy picked up the nod. Tim Kennedy is pretty yolked and it remains to be seen how Kelvin will show up at 185 which I assume will be doughy.
 
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