UFC FOX 22 - PVS vs Waterson - Sacramento

[Joseph Budden]

I agree. I like luca's podcast. I don't really understand all the hate for him. Yes I realize there have been issues with him in terms of his record keeping and inflating figures, not to mention selling picks is seen as scammy among bettors. But that aside, I find his info certainly better than the Vivisection, and find his breakdowns quite systematic and thorough. At the end of the day, I make my own bets and take everyone's breakdowns with a grain of salt (including your guys breakdowns), but I don't get the major hate for the guy. And I don't think its fair that a few people in this thread always just say he bets favs or whatever. Is there something I'm missing here?

IN B4 "It's Lucas ghost account"

I can only speak for myself, but yeah the amount he charges people says a lot about how much of a scumbag he is. Its like people who make fake pranks on youtube. Congrats, you are scamming people into personal profit, but you are an asshole.

Moral high ground shit aside though, a few months back I gave a few of his youtube vids a chance when I came across them. Remember posting about it. I could barely make it past the 10 minute mark with how egotistical he seems. He spent the first few mins doing nothing but hyping himself up and, as you said yourself, he embellishes. I don't even know his stats (could someone let me know? Genuinely curious) but hes CLEARLY just trying bullshit people when he said vague shit like "6 months without a loss" (clearly remember this one). What does that mean? You lost a bet. Sooo 6 months without a losing event? 6 months later youre in profit if I tailed every single bet? Its scumbag sales pitch bullshit coming from someone who comes across incredibly ingenuine

EDIT also....how tf do you guys sit through that Kermit the Frog voice? lol

 

[null]

JB, not to defend Luca because I would never pay any tout for a service when we have a great community here for free. But he does usually explain exactly what he means when he talks about his record in terms of the number of winning events in a row or winning months in a row or whatever he is referring to at the moment. I believe he still has a page on his site where he tracks his results if you want to check it for yourself and cross reference to what he said in the talk up at the beginning of the podcast. I personally just skip to a few minutes into each podcast to avoid the long preamble. There was a time before we had our own betting sub-forum where at least one user compiled the results after each UFC card from Fury's Fight Picks, MMA Oddsbreaker and at least one of the other major touts to compare how each one did. Nowadays one might add Gamblou to that mix. It often resulted in a nice chuckle all around when many of the regulars here made bundles on pre-fight bets and Bookmaker live betting and most of the touts lost money which seemed to happen as often as not.

 

[mkess101]

JB, not to defend Luca because I would never pay any tout for a service when we have a great community here for free. But he does usually explain exactly what he means when he talks about his record in terms of the number of winning events in a row or winning months in a row or whatever he is referring to at the moment. I believe he still has a page on his site where he tracks his results if you want to check it for yourself and cross reference to what he said in the talk up at the beginning of the podcast. I personally just skip to a few minutes into each podcast to avoid the long preamble. There was a time before we had our own betting sub-forum where at least one user compiled the results after each UFC card from Fury's Fight Picks, MMA Oddsbreaker and at least one of the other major touts to compare how each one did. Nowadays one might add Gamblou to that mix. It often resulted in a nice chuckle all around when many of the regulars here made bundles on pre-fight bets and Bookmaker live betting and most of the touts lost money which seemed to happen as often as not.

I could be wrong, but didn't someone here track Luca over 12, 18, 24 months (I honestly cannot remember the timeframe) and documented his plays as losing an insane amount of units? I can't remember the specifics, but I remember he was in fact recommending an extremely high % of favorites too.

Personally I can't wrap my brain around paying a tout and just blindly following their picks. Even if they are successful. I like the mental exercise of research, forming my own opinions, then bouncing them off the guys in here and using you guys' knowledge to help me come to what I end up betting. My BR is really just sort of my capping scorecard. If I win a grand or whatever, I'm happy that I capped well. It's not like I don't like $, I'm just not betting enough to where it would change anything, win or lose.

Gambling solely for the purpose of making life changing $ to me seems like a hard ass life. The natural volatility alone would make me sick. So paying some guy who claims to know more and be a better capper (true or not--and in most cases probably not) for his picks? No freaking way.

In other words:

If you are betting life changing amounts of $ and paying a tout so you can blindly follow thier picks, you need to take a step back and re-examine what the fuck you are doing. There are WAY less stressful ways to make a living.

If you are betting NON life changing amounts of $ and paying a tout and following their picks, why? What's the fun in that?

Paying touts for their picks...pointless.

 

[Joseph Budden]

JB, not to defend Luca because I would never pay any tout for a service when we have a great community here for free. But he does usually explain exactly what he means when he talks about his record in terms of the number of winning events in a row or winning months in a row or whatever he is referring to at the moment. I believe he still has a page on his site where he tracks his results if you want to check it for yourself and cross reference to what he said in the talk up at the beginning of the podcast. I personally just skip to a few minutes into each podcast to avoid the long preamble. There was a time before we had our own betting sub-forum where at least one user compiled the results after each UFC card from Fury's Fight Picks, MMA Oddsbreaker and at least one of the other major touts to compare how each one did. Nowadays one might add Gamblou to that mix. It often resulted in a nice chuckle all around when many of the regulars here made bundles on pre-fight bets and Bookmaker live betting and most of the touts lost money which seemed to happen as often as not.

The one posted is more in depth than the one I remember as far as numbers, but still its all sales pitch bull shit. As someone who has to work and deal with lowlife scumbags in banking I see it all the time "let me open this savings account and earn you ten times more interest". The numbers sound amazing, but when that ten times is going from .05% to .50% what is it really doing for you? All it takes is a trip to his website to see all these inflated stats are him picking gigantic favorites he likes. Its a scumbags way of making a living. Of course shame on the people who are dumb enough to put money in this guy's pocket, but wtf. The fact part of his bullshit sales pitch of betting -400 favorites is stroking his own ego tells you all you need to know.

 

[Polarize]

For anyone that can translate

-Happy to fight in UFC.
-He speaks about Sandoval, says his background is wrestling like me, he mentions his record etc... He says that he is more focused on what he can do than what Sandoval can do.
- He thinks he won the fight vs Benoit and fought well, says he is aware of his weaknesses in his game and that he has to keep improving.
-He says he has many weapons that he has not shown, Wrestling will be key in the fight
- Training camp is good, working a lot on fitness and studying the opponent.
-The rest isn't fight related, he talks about Colombian MMA, colombian fighters in the TUF, He mentions the difficulties to keep the belt in all divisions recently.Conor.... Anderson silva is the best for him.

 

[Joseph Budden]

!!!!

SAGE TOLD GALL BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR!!!!

Confidence increase. This is equivalent of any other fighter saying hes gonna fuck his opponents mom

 

[piglord]

I'm thinking bout it

I've got 1.5 units on him myself. Not very confident but the odds are way off so I have to play it

do you reckon brad can defend the takedowns though?

urijah had to resort to eye pokes when he wasn't able to get francisco and jimmie rivera on the mat. he looked terrible in the standup in both those fights too.

 

[MMAJay]

In-depth breakdown of all of Jouban's wins (legit)

Seth Baczynski (lol, got dropped too)
Richard Walsh (lol)
Matt Dwyer (lol, got dropped too)
Brendan O'Reilly (double lol)
Belal (notbadbjpenn.gif, but he was on short notice + ramadan + got dropped + Belal is overrated, just got KO'd, only win is over Montano so not that impressive although he's still young)

Alright mate. I want to give you some constructive general feedback. So I hope that you will both READ and LISTEN what I have to say to you. First of all, I respect your knowledge and insight in this sport, that you can use for some good analyzing, but sometimes you come across as a 8th grade bully when you're presenting your arguments. Once you pick a fighter your EGO takes over. I don't get that at all, when we're supposed to have a close to objectively as possible debate about the fights.

Regarding the Jouban vs. Perry fight. It makes sense to find all the arguments needed when putting down a big bet on a fighter, but that still doesn't make it more rational. Of course I don't know if you really want to help and inform people about betting advice, but you make it hard for me to believe you sometimes.

Im a fan of Jouban and dislike Perry. Because of Jouban being a underdog and my biasedness, i've put down a small stab on Jouban ML. I rather play the fight ending in TKO/KO since I know that Perry very likely could stop Jouban.
When that is said and done, I still think (as objectively as possible) that this is Jouban's fight to loose. Perry has all the chances in the world to win against a big part of the division WHEN his opponents are willing to fight a dog fight with him. This is where he thrives, and this is why im saying that this is Jouban's fight to loose, because he often find himself in a dog fight, even though he doesn't has to be in one.

Perry has the power, but he swings so wild at times, and really gives zero fucks about setting up his punches. As long as he can fight a dog fight and trade in the pocket, he knows that he can win at any given moment. I don't think that you rationally have thought about that some of the fighters that dropped Jouban was langy tall fighters and was because of his willingness to not give a fuck. This is just a fact. I don't see Perry dropping Jouban or stop him, IF Jouban just stay at his own comfortable range and not in the pocket.

When you're so comitted to call the above fighters low level fighters (LOL), why not throw Roberts in there as well? Roberts has really underperformed IMO, and shown every bit of what you shouldn't do in a fight, like the last one against Perry. Perry only won that because of Roberts fuck ups, and this is, if we measure by your standards, a low level fighter. This is exactly why I think there are some holes in your arguments, when you, without hesitating, stating some of your "obvious" arguments without spending 1 second to explain the negative sides to your own bet/pick. It's soooo mind bogling to me, that you call Belal a overrated fighter. We both know that you only do that because of his recent KO loss. It doesn't make any sence. I think that Belal would absolutely pick Perry apart with his technical way of fighting. You simply cannot remove the already proven skills of a fighter, just because of a KO loss. If Jouban pace himself he will most likely win over Perry like he did against Belal.

When all this is said and done, I wouldn't feel confident in picking Perry or Jouban. Just want to analyze this fight in the most rational way possible.

I've spend some energy writing this post for YOU, so please don't give me any bullcrap and please respond in a way where we can have a rational discussion

#EGOHasNoBusinessInSportsBetting

 

[Polarize]

For anyone that can translate

He says has been working a lot on wrestling and striking (he says again Sandoval is a wrestler,I do not know exactly how to translate what he is saying so that you can understand me but you can expect he will wrestle a lot in this fight). He says is working on evolving his skills, He thinks kicks are a good weapon for him bc is a solid wrestler. He says he will show more "resouces" in this fight. He and his team have been training defense against his strong right hand (overhand). Predicts a win by KO.



She says she is happy and excited to debut and represent her country, it is a dream come true. She says it was helpful to be with Alexa Grasso for all his training camp and was in the backstage in her UFC debut. She is happy (again) to fight against a tought veteran with a lot of experience and no fear. She thinks is a good test for her.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Bought out of my PVZ to win bet. Fuck she is horrible imho and im not buying the public hype. Waterson is the better striker here end of story.

 

[Polarize]

!!!!

SAGE TOLD GALL BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR!!!!

Confidence increase. This is equivalent of any other fighter saying hes gonna fuck his opponents mom

Given that you're holding on to those videos to gain confidence for quite a few pages I can imagine your confidence in Northcutt

 

[cagebrain]

The one posted is more in depth than the one I remember as far as numbers, but still its all sales pitch bull shit. As someone who has to work and deal with lowlife scumbags in banking I see it all the time "let me open this savings account and earn you ten times more interest". The numbers sound amazing, but when that ten times is going from .05% to .50% what is it really doing for you? All it takes is a trip to his website to see all these inflated stats are him picking gigantic favorites he likes. Its a scumbags way of making a living. Of course shame on the people who are dumb enough to put money in this guy's pocket, but wtf. The fact part of his bullshit sales pitch of betting -400 favorites is stroking his own ego tells you all you need to know.

totally agree. However, what about the actual quality of his analysis? Im not his customer (LOL at whoever is), and yeah he talks for 5 mins at the beginning of each show about his success (which I always skip through), but I feel his analysis can sometimes benefit my betting, however small it is. I'm not advocating subscribing to his "service" or encouraging his scumbag business model, but maybe have a listen to the content? Anyways, it doesn't affect me if you do or not, but I just wanted to throw it out there.

But by far the best resource is you guys (awww lets all circlejerk)

 

[Slohog]

Yea I'm with @cagebrain on this one. The obviously knows a thing or two about fighting and even if you don't agree with him he has a decent idea here or there. If you skip the first 5 min of his podcasts it's not a bad listen if you have the time.

I'd have to be rather bored to listen to him, but on the other hand I've actively had to ignore a bunch of people here so that I don't have to read through 75% dumb flaming and other things that may or may not be bad for the soul so I don't see how he's worse then that. I'm sure a bunch of people here (including myself) posts a bunch of dumb picks from time to time.

Like, I'm probably down in my picks I've posted the last 6 months over a small sample. It's obviously not a good thing, but I like to think I've managed to scrape together a decent post or two at some point anyway. I would not buy his service, but if he posts a breakdown that's easy to access and somewhat logical I'd be happy to give it a listen from time to time.

 

[Sadistics]

do you reckon brad can defend the takedowns though?

urijah had to resort to eye pokes when he wasn't able to get francisco and jimmie rivera on the mat. he looked terrible in the standup in both those fights too.

That's the big question, at +400 I'm willing to pay to find out. If he can't get the td it should be Pickett's fight

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Anyone has intel on why so much money has been coming in on Holtzman?

I thought Emmett looked great in his debut and he's fighting here at home with a lot of support. Looks like the better fighter to me shit.

 

[machida90]

Guys what do you think about the Over 1.5 in the Gall/Sage match?

 

[Shoulder]

That's the big question, at +400 I'm willing to pay to find out. If he can't get the td it should be Pickett's fight

I agree, had to put 0.5U at Pickett DEC @7.50. Faber did not look that good last fights.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Alright mate. I want to give you some constructive general feedback. So I hope that you will both READ and LISTEN what I have to say to you. First of all, I respect your knowledge and insight in this sport, that you can use for some good analyzing, but sometimes you come across as a 8th grade bully when you're presenting your arguments. Once you pick a fighter your EGO takes over. I don't get that at all, when we're supposed to have a close to objectively as possible debate about the fights.

Regarding the Jouban vs. Perry fight. It makes sense to find all the arguments needed when putting down a big bet on a fighter, but that still doesn't make it more rational. Of course I don't know if you really want to help and inform people about betting advice, but you make it hard for me to believe you sometimes.

Im a fan of Jouban and dislike Perry. Because of Jouban being a underdog and my biasedness, i've put down a small stab on Jouban ML. I rather play the fight ending in TKO/KO since I know that Perry very likely could stop Jouban.
When that is said and done, I still think (as objectively as possible) that this is Jouban's fight to loose. Perry has all the chances in the world to win against a big part of the division WHEN his opponents are willing to fight a dog fight with him. This is where he thrives, and this is why im saying that this is Jouban's fight to loose, because he often find himself in a dog fight, even though he doesn't has to be in one.

Perry has the power, but he swings so wild at times, and really gives zero fucks about setting up his punches. As long as he can fight a dog fight and trade in the pocket, he knows that he can win at any given moment. I don't think that you rationally have thought about that some of the fighters that dropped Jouban was langy tall fighters and was because of his willingness to not give a fuck. This is just a fact. I don't see Perry dropping Jouban or stop him, IF Jouban just stay at his own comfortable range and not in the pocket.

When you're so comitted to call the above fighters low level fighters (LOL), why not throw Roberts in there as well? Roberts has really underperformed IMO, and shown every bit of what you shouldn't do in a fight, like the last one against Perry. Perry only won that because of Roberts fuck ups, and this is, if we measure by your standards, a low level fighter. This is exactly why I think there are some holes in your arguments, when you, without hesitating, stating some of your "obvious" arguments without spending 1 second to explain the negative sides to your own bet/pick. It's soooo mind bogling to me, that you call Belal a overrated fighter. We both know that you only do that because of his recent KO loss. It doesn't make any sence. I think that Belal would absolutely pick Perry apart with his technical way of fighting. You simply cannot remove the already proven skills of a fighter, just because of a KO loss. If Jouban pace himself he will most likely win over Perry like he did against Belal.

When all this is said and done, I wouldn't feel confident in picking Perry or Jouban. Just want to analyze this fight in the most rational way possible.

I've spend some energy writing this post for YOU, so please don't give me any bullcrap and please respond in a way where we can have a rational discussion

#EGOHasNoBusinessInSportsBetting

Great post mate.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I just moved 4 prop lines in the last 10 minutes with my 20$ max bets. Nothing else on the board has changed except my action.

Gall sub +180 to +165
Frankenstein KO +140 to +120
Moontasri KO +375 to +290
Covington ITD +298 to +230

While the Emmett decision line hasn't budged yet but I played that too. It's like they hit the panic button when I try to make any sort of plays. They'll probably inflate back up and I'll probably do another bet but now I'm not liking the prices.

 

[mkess101]

I know the judges are hired by the AC and not the UFC, but if you at all believe in the UFC having any influence on scores you gotta believe that no way in fucking hell do they want Cole Miller winning. The way he's talking about the UFC, they'd like him to lose and then they'll just let him go. They damn sure don't want Rogan sticking a mic in his face after the fight.

Hirota probably isn't stopping Cole, but I'm gonna hit his dec line at +205. Not as good as I'd like, but given Cole's seemingly shit attitude about fighting (along with what I mentioned above--which I don't even know how much stock I myself put in LOL but whatever) I think it's worth a stab. Not much, but .4u on that one.