UFC FOX 22 - PVS vs Waterson - Sacramento

Status
Not open for further replies.
I agree KH is the more skilled fighter, but like I said I think Paige can get by most girls in that division with her aggressiveness and cardio. Plus she has to be improving fight to fight, at least you would hope. Lol. No bet for me tho besides the under small.
People are really putting too much stock in Paige's "size advantage" and aggressiveness. Did it do anything against Rose?

Her aggressiveness is sloppy and leads her into dangerous positions.
 
I currently have a unit on PVZ. I'm most likely going to hedge out and put a unit on KH. KH is just better everywhere. What is PVZ's path to victory? We're just counting on KH to gas out and because PVZ is bigger? KH is a life long martial artist. PVZ is just a horse face dancer.

First of all if you wouldn't smash PVZ you're not into chicks.

Second, I get the waterski is more skilled but she can no show like she has in the past. Also, how does she hurt PVZ. PVZ is tough.
 
Now .4u deep on Faber fastest sub +1000. Please, if anyone has a good argument as to why I should back down before I reach a full unit, let me know. Otherwise thats probably what will happen within the next 3 hours. One of the best value lines i've seen of these prop types
Putting a full unit on a prop like that is something ZeesMMA would do, no offense (honestly). Faber has been gunshy for ages now. You'll feel dumb if he goes to decision again and you lose a full unit on a bet with so much variance.
 
I currently have a unit on PVZ. I'm most likely going to hedge out and put a unit on KH. KH is just better everywhere. What is PVZ's path to victory? We're just counting on KH to gas out and because PVZ is bigger? KH is a life long martial artist. PVZ is just a horse face dancer.
Great post man.
 
Putting a full unit on a prop like that is something ZeesMMA would do, no offense (honestly). Faber has been gunshy for ages now. You'll feel dumb if he goes to decision again and you lose a full unit on a bet with so much variance.
No its not. What he would do is take a line like Fabers and parlay it everywhere where his night depends on it

Would've done half a unit on a play like this under normal circumstances, but i've had a good month so went heavier than I should. Fuck it.

Am I really silly for believing him when he says hes coming out kamikaze though? Its his retirement fight, nothing to lose, he prob wanted Pickett cause he knows he loves those type of fights. Him being gunshy isn't enough to stop me from at least reaching .6 to .7u by event time lol very rare a +1000 comes along that I really like
 
If you're counting on a 115lbs girl in amazing shape to gas out when she trains at elevation at one of the best camps in the world, you're gonna have a bad time.

If you're counting on a sloppy fighter with disgusting fight IQ to not make mistakes against the more technical fighter everywhere, you're gonna have a bad time.
 
No its not. What he would do is take a line like Fabers and parlay it everywhere where his night depends on it

Would've done half a unit under normal circumstances, but i've had a good month so went heavier than I should. Fuck it.

Am I really silly for believing him when he says hes coming out kamikaze though? Its his retirement fight, nothing to lose, he prob wanted Pickett cause he knows he loves those type of fights. Him being gunshy isn't enough to stop me from at least reaching .6 to .7u by event time lol very rare a +1000 comes along that I really like
He put a full unit on a draw recently.

Good luck but if Faber comes out like Derek Brunson then the world will end. He's hardly threw a strike for years now.

Edit: And if he does run at Pickett he's gonna have a bad time. Pickett is the better striker.
 
He put a full unit on a draw recently.

Good luck but if Faber comes out like Derek Brunson then the world will end. He's hardly threw a strike for years now.
LMAO!!!! You know for what event? I have to see that video lol what is this guy thinking....

He might not go full Brunson, but i'm believing him to the extent I expect him to push the action for once. This is his last fight, even if he didn't say hes going kamikaze i'd expect him to go out there and look for a scrap
 
LMAO!!!! You know for what event? I have to see that video lol what is this guy thinking....

He might not go full Brunson, but i'm believing him to the extent I expect him to push the action for once. This is his last fight, even if he didn't say hes going kamikaze i'd expect him to go out there and look for a scrap
Condit vs Maia. Sadly I'm mistaken and it was just 0.5u but still.

 
Now .4u deep on Faber fastest sub +1000. Please, if anyone has a good argument as to why I should back down before I reach a full unit, let me know. Otherwise thats probably what will happen within the next 3 hours. One of the best value lines i've seen of these prop types

Gall's best chance is probably an early sub and Miller's best chance is a sub. Still, that's pretty steep odds. I probably wouldn't put .4 units on it though. Isn't your biggest bet for this event 1.5 units? That's pretty hefty on a longshot prop IMO.
 
I actually but .5u on the under at +125 just because I see a lot of grappling and wouldn't be surprised if someone locks in a sub or PVZ finishes late if KH slows down. But I agree with your first paragraph completed, just feel like in WMMA Paige's relentless pressure and cardio is enough against most besides top 5 in that division.

I'm gonna be honest, I am regretting that o4.5 bet. Not because I don't think it hits (I do) but because of the juice. I paid too much for it.
 
Can you convince me not to be a man and throw a full unit on it? Lol i'm .3u deep on that +1000 and I keep thinking its wroth even more. The people who are more favored are Gall +250 (lol cmon. Besides my arguments for why he might not even win, it took him 3 full mins on the mat to sub Punk), Craig +900 (maybe but Silva is tough as fuck, doubt he gets subbed real quick), and Cole +550 (maybe but Hirota gets same argument as Silva, so tough and Cole got off to such a slow start last fight).

Faber's own words were hes coming out like a kamikaze. I see Pickett embracing that. I fucking love this line lol

Gall is my pick for sure (we should probably rehash why over the next 8-10 pages of this thread LOL) but the odds are just WAY off. Faber is the bet for sure at these odds.
 
Gall's best chance is probably an early sub and Miller's best chance is a sub. Still, that's pretty steep odds. I probably wouldn't put .4 units on it though. Isn't your biggest bet for this event 1.5 units? That's pretty hefty on a longshot prop IMO.
Think my biggest stake is just over 2u if you include my round robin (and pretty sure thats on Emmett). Yeah i'm trying to hold myself back with the .4u right now. I genuinely love this line but not trying to go crazy. If it hits that profit + what I have on itd is more than enough
 
I'm gonna be honest, I am regretting that o4.5 bet. Not because I don't think it hits (I do) but because of the juice. I paid too much for it.
Hedge with Waterson sub and you'll be fine.
 
i havent seen much discussion about Bojan/Aliev. Aliev could be the dark horse. It would fuck up everything if he comes out and dominates bojan. In recent pic he looked jacked.. what if he wins and later fails a drug test. Damn it Bojan please....
 
i havent seen much discussion about Bojan/Aliev. Aliev could be the dark horse. It would fuck up everything if he comes out and dominates bojan. In recent pic he looked jacked.. what if he wins and later fails a drug test. Damn it Bojan please....

We'll all cry holding hands because I'm not sure I've seen anyone on Aliev yet.
 
Anyone else liking Bojan NSC as much as I am at -115? I really think the chances of Aliev stopping Bojan are small, while I think Bojan sub is realistic. I have some on it already, thinking of adding.

I am really not getting all the confidence in Frankenstein either. Man watching that fight with Wilson, he had his hands at his sides and got BOMBED by Wilson in that one. Showed good chin and recovery, but wow is his defense lazy. And while Craig's level of competition is obviously lower, his grappling transitions looked SLICK. If Frankenstein gets lazy again, Craig can catch him and lock in a sub quickly before Bojan recovers. Not seeing everyone so comfortable laying juice and playing Frankenstein's KO line, etc. Do I slightly favor him? Sure. -225? No way.

I see Colby -3.5 is now -195. Still a bit of value imo, though I like my -170 much better obviously. I cannot see how Barb wins a round here. And even if one round happens to be competitive (and I think that's about the best Barb can hope for), Colby would only need one judge to give it to him to cover. I added a bit before this line gets even worse. Makes my overall line worse a bit, but I'll live with it to get more on this. Could be -220 by fight time.

With you on Bojan. Hit his NSC line to win 2u at -135. I jumped too early but still feeling good about it.
 
i havent seen much discussion about Bojan/Aliev. Aliev could be the dark horse. It would fuck up everything if he comes out and dominates bojan. In recent pic he looked jacked.. what if he wins and later fails a drug test. Damn it Bojan please....

Stayed away from that one completely. Aliev is a good wrestler and I'm not sure if Bojan has the power or TDD to keep him off him.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top