UFC FOX 22 - PVS vs Waterson - Sacramento

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I am on Aliev for a unit. I see him taking Bojan down and putting too much power on him when they are standing.
 
Bojan could easily be 0-2 in UFC tbh, both of the decisions were quite debatable.
 
I am on Aliev for a unit. I see him taking Bojan down and putting too much power on him when they are standing.
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Almost finished with research. If Craig can make the fight ugly and stay away from the end of Frankensteins punches, he should win rather easily and possibly get a stoppage. I was under the impression da Silva was a lot tree than he than he is. His punches are slow and winged and he loses steam within 2-3 mins if he can't get finish. Opportunity to make some money right here I think...
 
I posted a couple pages ago (I think post #1201) a breakdown of Sage's last two fights. To me, that's what should really worry Sage backers. If you look at the elite guys from the grappling circuit that make it in MMA, generally they are able to implement good takedowns and gain top position a solid amount of the time. Because while on the grappling circuit playing the guard game works fine (it's a neutral position, you have lots of time to work for subs or sweeps, etc.) it usually doesn't work so well in MMA (you end up usually getting punched a lot LOL).

While Gall hasn't fought anyone, he easily took down 2 of the 3 nobodies he's been in there with (knocked the other down with a strike). And Sage just GIFTWRAPS takedowns for his opponents. He backs up to the cage, allows double underhooks without fighting it at all, doesn't know how to sprawl or switch. For a kid training full time with his athleticism, it's maddening to watch honestly. In fact, I think him being such a good athlete is a curse. He basically just "athleted" his way out of bad spots vs Marin time and again.

In other words, Gall doesn't NEED to be a polished (or even close) MMA fighter to get Sage to the ground if we see anything like what we've seen recently from Sage. And his deficiencies on the mat are so pronounced that if Gall does get him down it really is a mismatch.


I don't disagree tbh, we've seen Sage's glaring holes, but we also see the glaring ones in Mickeys game. The wading through water straight right to the body, or the even slower hook,uppercut, hook into a shoot. This stands out to me majorly, and I think Gall will get into real trouble against someone who isn't carthitic. Again, were all in the thread to make money, and I may be proved wrong majorly (which I will tip my hat if I do), but I think Northcutt is leagues ahead in the striking department, and if he has evolved enough to stuff Galls shots (which are by no means good), then its his fight to lose. GL regardless.
 
I'm scared of PVZ getting hometown decision. And KH usually gets the worse end of her TDs and scrambles. And she's tiny enough to fit in my pocket.
1" height difference and looked the exact same size at weigh ins
 
Hedge with Waterson sub and you'll be fine.
She ain't subbing PVZ so why would donating more money be fine? Dont listen to people's opinions with your money. If they really knew wtf they were doing they'd bet for a living and not manning the counter at Subway like half of Sherdog.
 
Also, Frankenstein is a pass for me. I genuinely think/hope Paul Craig will surprise people tonight, and I will say his record doesn't reflect his ability standing up, he moves quickly and has decent pop. But I'm biased, as he's a local guy (although not same gym).
 
Wait EZ I'm confused. You DON'T like that Colby line?? I'm totally fine with it. By comparison Aldana is -185 which I'm even okay with. I'd assume it's because she has a much better chance to finish according to the books, but ML for her is -295 vs -355 for Colby.

The way I see it is that Colby is the bigger, stronger guy with a gigantic wrestling edge that Barb probably has zero answers for. Barb should probably be at LW, and best case probably ends up on his back defending for 15 minutes.

I also do think Smith is shot. She looks robotic, while Aldana looks fluid and loose. I think Aldana lights her up easily. Smith is pretty tough I guess so it could see the cards (and I did previously bet the o2.5 which I think I hit a little prematurely--but whatever) but I can't see Leslie winning a round much more than I can see Barb winning one.

Covington -3.5+Aldana -3.5 paying +145. I like this, just did 1.5u on it.

i wanted +100 on the covington spread ><
 
She ain't subbing PVZ so why would donating more money be fine? Dont listen to people's opinions with your money. If they really knew wtf they were doing they'd bet for a living and not manning the counter at Subway like half of Sherdog.
Why do you think it's impossible she subs PVZ? Have you even watched tape?

Never even seen you post bets so get off my dick
 
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I don't disagree tbh, we've seen Sage's glaring holes, but we also see the glaring ones in Mickeys game. The wading through water straight right to the body, or the even slower hook,uppercut, hook into a shoot. This stands out to me majorly, and I think Gall will get into real trouble against someone who isn't carthitic. Again, were all in the thread to make money, and I may be proved wrong majorly (which I will tip my hat if I do), but I think Northcutt is leagues ahead in the striking department, and if he has evolved enough to stuff Galls shots (which are by no means good), then its his fight to lose. GL regardless.

Yeah I think even those of us on Gall know his striking is nowhere near Sage's level (at least offensively). That said, if you read my B/D of Sage's last two fights, he really isn't very good defensively. He backs up in a straight line when pressured until he gets to the cage. For a fairly one dimensional guy like Gall is right now, you couldn't ask for more. Now, you're right in that maybe Sage fixed that between the Marin fight and now. Guys his age do sometimes make giant leaps from one fight to the next. But the onus is on him to prove that to me at this point. Because the habits he's shown two fights in a row now are going to get him put on his back most likely unless he just straight up starches Gall quickly before Gall gets close. (Which is possible but unlikely imo).

Plus I don't think it's fair to say Gall's shots are "by no means good". From the fights I've watched of him, they look fine. I think "unproven against any real competition" is fair to say for sure. But in the 3 pro fights and 1 amateur fight I saw of him, he completed every takedown he's attempted. And Sage has shown pitiful takedown defense against lackluster wrestlers already.
 
i wanted +100 on the covington spread ><

Greedy mofo LOL. That would be 4u for me minimum at that line, no question. His ML is -355 and it's the type of fight where if you think he's gonna win, most likely you think he dominates and either finishes with gnp or completely shuts down Barb by putting him on his back for 15 minutes.
 
Anyone else liking Bojan NSC as much as I am at -115? I really think the chances of Aliev stopping Bojan are small, while I think Bojan sub is realistic. I have some on it already, thinking of adding.

wtf, that line makes no sense. i took it at -143 opener

bojan has never been finished. and aliev just tries to hug people.
 
wtf, that line makes no sense. i took it at -143 opener

bojan has never been finished. and aliev just tries to hug people.

I'm 2.5u on it now. Aliev finish would really hurt, but I don't see it happening.

Edit: -120 now. I'd jump in for more if you're gonna. That's gonna be -150 by tonight I think. Just my guess though.
 
I'm 2.5u on it now. Aliev finish would really hurt, but I don't see it happening.

Edit: -120 now. I'd jump in for more if you're gonna. That's gonna be -150 by tonight I think. Just my guess though.

Put a unit on it as well. Great line, muchas gracias for pointing it out.
 
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