UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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Parillo took a career long pillow puncher and transformed him into a veritable knock out artist. This is extremely unusual. With Penn's tight boxing and heavy-handed skills built in, less work need be done.

Bisping > Rochold, Cormier > Rumble, Lawler > Rory, Swanson > Choi

Interesting, you have a good point.
 
I'm with ya on mostly everything except I took o2.5 on court/Saunders.

I also don't have an opinion on the first 3 fights because they are a bunch of fat oafs.

BOL Reb

The o2.5 prolly cashes .. I may play it too, that was just my predictions and not official bets.

Also agree on early tilts being journeyman cans that can't be trusted lol
 
Interesting, you have a good point.

Yea, Parillo has worked wonders with older fighters who have previously not demonstrated much punching power or tight fundamentals in a boxing centric approach. Not only was he able to achieve great things with Michael Bisping but perhaps his best work was done with a then 37-year-old Ortiz who Jason coached when Ortiz starched the much younger more athletic Ryan Bader before choking him out.

Coincidentally, Tito entered that fight with Ryan Bader winless over the course of five years and had looked like a shell of himself up until that point. BJ Penn is much more talented of a boxer then Ortiz with fa more fluidity to his punches. Just throwing that out there.
 
Luca Fraud Picks: "When I was 17 I wanted to be a pro fighter and was going to train full time, then it turned out I had a spine disease which derailed all that. So I ended up going this route instead."
 
Yea, Parillo has worked wonders with older fighters who have previously not demonstrated much punching power or tight fundamentals in a boxing centric approach. Not only was he able to achieve great things with Michael Bisping but perhaps his best work was done with a then 37-year-old Ortiz who Jason coached when Ortiz starched the much younger more athletic Ryan Bader before choking him out.

Coincidentally, Tito entered that fight with Ryan Bader winless over the course of five years and had looked like a shell of himself up until that point. BJ Penn is much more talented of a boxer then Ortiz with fa more fluidity to his punches. Just throwing that out there.

you make some good points. like most people, i can envision yair coming unstuck against a boxing based approach. whether penn will be the one to do it i'm not sure, but at +400 i'm willing to find out.
 
Im going with penn, yair is not top mma calibre.

Jusy a query. Last card what would nunes, garbrandt and dillashaw gone for as a multi ?
 
Chase Shermans career wins!

Jack May - 8-3 (injured his leg in the first round and couldn't continue)
Sammy Collingwood 2-4 (took a CLEAR dive in the first round)
Russ Johnson 0-3
Brad Johnson 0-1
Wes Little 4-8
Alex Rozman 4-20
Justin Thornton 5-12
Chris Jensen 1-2
Braxton Smith 0-1
 
90% of bloodyfrauds.com staff picking smoliakov to win.
also some of them picking powell :D :D :D

cunts
 
I haven't had a chance to contribute much to the thread and I'm trying to read through it but I will give my thoughts on some of the main events. I'll try to break down the others tomorrow afternoon.

UFC fight night 103 predictions


BJ Penn vs. Yair Rodriquez

The winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America in 2014 will take the biggest leap of his young career thus far Sunday night when he locks horns with the Hawaiian legend. Sure, Penn hasn’t been in victory lane since 2010 nor has he competed since the summer of 2014 — when he inexplicably — came out on his tippy toes only to get throttled by career nemesis Frankie Edgar for his efforts. Still yet, Penn is always dangerous and as versatile as they come. Even as long in the tooth as he Is, Penn's not going to be an easy out for anyone. Including the the Mexican juggernaut.

A hodgepodge of ferocity, Yair's free flowing offense is chained together brilliantly. It is the pugilistic equivalent of a set of Russian nesting dolls where the first strike is just a setup to reveal a different strike, which has, in turn, another strike after that, and so on. Meanwhile, BJ Penn is the polar opposite drama as he relies on having solid fundamentals and a near exclusive boxing centric attacked replete with a ace BJJ game if it hits the floor. It's high wire vs. blue-collar, and it's going to take a helluva performance from either man to best the other.

Normally I would say that Rodriguez would have a much easier time with the 38-year-old Hall of Famer, but finally the Hawaiian has demonstrated the need to break away from "Yes Man Alley" and put himself in the uncomfortable confines of a real training camp. Specifically, BJ Penn has linked up with the notable duo of Greg Jackson and Mike Winklejohn while simultaneously reconnecting with Jason Parillo to improve his boxing. Incidentally, it was Jason Parillo who was with Penn during his 155 pound championship campaign from 2008-2010. What's more, Parillo has been the catalyst to Michael Bisping's improbable 2016 championship run. The underrated boxing coach has most notably transformed the once feather-fisted striker into a legitimate power puncher. Indeed, it's probably too little too late, but all the right things are being done and preparations for the Mexican martial arts neophyte and as such I anticipate that we'll see the best version of Penn that we have seen in several years.

The whirling dervish that is Rodriguez has put himself on the map with his highlight reel fight footage that has brought him to a flawless 5-0 record inside the octagon. With black belts in karate and taekwondo respectively, Rodriguez floats around the cage like a well lubricated weather vain throwing strikes from every conceivable angle and never running out of gas along the way. The 24 year old lightning rod has an underrated grappling game with excellent takedowns. Specifically, Rodriguez transitions well from striking to wrestling to keep his opponent guessing. Still yet, the youngster does his best work on the fringe with his vast array of kicking techniques. What's more, Rodriguez has shown a propensity to brawl when need be and has demoed a iron chin along the way.

Basically this flight is old guard very versus new guard and something has to give. As an unabashed bonafide BJ Penn mark, I always hold out hope that "The Prodigy" gives me one more win. I've been fooled so many times that I have quit putting my money on Penn at this point. Although I will continue to root for him. The one thing that "Penn Nation" can hope for is that his time working with the crew in Albuquerque and his full camp with boxing coach Parillo give us something to hang our hat on other than pure wishful thoughts.

I mean, no one expected Michael Bisping to become the middleweight champion in 2016 by twice dropping MW GOAT Anderson Silva prior to lamping ultra-badass Luke Rockhold in the opening stanza. Essentially this is Rodriguez's flght to lose, but if "Pantera" gets overconfident and leaves an opening, he very well could be staring into a flashlight.

Coming into this fight BJ Penn is a 5-1 dog to Rodriguez. But that doesn't mean he can't get the job done and I have proof. I point to another duo of 5-1 dogs that shocked us. Tito Ortiz over Ryan Bader and the aforementioned Bisping over Rockhold. Fun fact, the common denominator between both underdogs? You guessed it. Boxing coach Jason fucking Parillo!

So, perhaps Parillo can lead BJ Penn to a similar Cinderella story of a come back. Period though I'm not holding my breath.

As we seen in 2016 with Michael Bisping, Demian Maia and Yoel Romero, 38 years old is not necessarily a death sentence. I expect to see rejuvenated old fighter Who is still skilled enough to make noise. The main reason that I hold out hope his because of the work Parillo was able to with Bisping. In short, Parillo took a career long pillow puncher and transformed him into a veritable knock out artist. This is extremely unusual. With Penn's tight boxing and heavy-handed skills built in, less work need be done.

Bisping > Rochold, Cormier > Rumble, Lawler > Rory, Swanson > Choi

You see where all I am going with this!

The Prodigy for the upset!

Held +110 Lauzon -140

This here is one of the most intriguing, well matched contests on the board at UFC FN 103 for my entertainment at least. For grappling connoisseurs everywhere, a mixed martial arts bout pitting the slick jiu-jitsu opportunist Joe Lauzon opposite Polish pretzel tying wunderkind Marcin Held is an absolute treat. On the feet I give the Bostonian a slight edge in both technique and power, and that is buttressed by a vast advantage in the experience department. Nevertheless, the 24-year-old held who will be making his sophomore octagon debut is not a fish out of water despite the age discrepancy. That is to say, Held has been competing in Bellator since he was a babyfaced 19-year-old and is not a novice in the world of martial arts. Additionally, we should expect to see improvements in his sophomore Octagon outing now that any Octagon jitters can be put to rest.

Having said all that, Joe has seemed to hit his stride and rejuvenated what was looking to be a career plateau. Indeed, J-Lau positively dusted the granite chinned Diego Sanchez and then followed that up with a exceptional performance against the rugged Jim Miller in what should have been a clear cut decision victory. Meanwhile, the same Diego Sanchez who was brained by Lauzon, thoroughly bottled up the Polish prospect for all three rounds. Granted, I am not a fan of MMA-math, but I can't help but notice how the perspective combatants fared vs. common opposition. In this case Lauzon comes out looking better.

At any rate, this should be a fun back-and-forth barnburner of a fight in which hopefully we get to see some awesome grappling exchanges. Ultimately though, I believe the long time UFC veteran finds a way to have in his hand raised once more. Most likely by using his wrestling and top control to punish Held with those razor sharp elbows he's known for slicing people up with. Potentially picking up another $50,000 check along the way.

Prediction: Lauzon by submission

Saunders -120 Mcgee -110

The UFC Jack Of All Trades, and flat out cardio machine Court McGee is as bread-and-butter a fighter you can get. Ostensibly a wrestle-boxer with black belt in both Shin-Toshi and Kempo karate, McGee predominately eschews the typical long range fencing style of karate in exchange for a far more basic boxing centric approach. Constantly on his front foot, McGee is a virtual sledgehammer acting like a wrecking ball sized metronome where he is perpetually chip – chip – chipping away at his opponents exterior. This is repeated until they crack under his relentless pressure.

Conversely, Saunders is a hyperkinetic Muay-Thai wrecking machine where he uses his gargantuan 6'3" welterweight frame to batter his opponent from the fringe with a whaling harpoon of a jab or else gut busting knees to the midsection in the clinch. Ben is supremely skilled with a wealth of attacks at his disposal. When he is not beating the hell out of his opponent in a striking match, he is using his jujitsu wizardry to choke dudes out and/or bend their joints in the wrong direction. All told, he is as well rounded as it gets. The issue with Saunders is that he is a bit of a flake and as tough as he is, he's also equally inconsistent. That said, when he's on he is a handful.

This fight will probably come down to how well McGee's wrestling works against Killa-B. Following a rash of injuries and subsequent surgeries, Court has had difficulty transitioning into takedowns that he used to be able to hit. What's more, while Saunders has mediocre takedown defense, once he's on his back he has one of the most dangerous guards in the game. Indeed, Saunders is a grappling savant and can force an insta-tap with a plethora of submissions. These in top control or off his back. For reference see the only successful Omoplata recorded in UFC history!

I really like Ben here. Worst case scenario, he gets taken down and uses his rubber-guard to tie McGee up and force a stand up. Basically, it's my opinion that as long as Saunders cardio is in check and he uses his full potential, I believe that he wins this fight. In short, Ben has several paths to victory lane. Meanwhile, in all likelihood, the best McGee can hope for is a closely contested decision win. My money is on the guy with more ways to get the job done

Prediction: Saunders by SUB

Moraga +120 Pettis -150

With some wind at his back, the younger Pettit sibling is beginning to come into his own and blossom into the top notch fighter we expected. Indeed, the Rufus Sport product has won his last two fights with utter dominance. This as he displayed versatility that we'd expect from the new guard. A fundamentally sound kickboxer with a Taekwondo background, the rubber legged Milwaukee native is dynamic vertically, has sold takedown defense, his wrestling has gotten infinitely better and his grappling game has come along nicely as well. For all intents and purposes, Sergio is a true mixed martial artist with very few holes in his game.

A D-1 NCAA wrestler with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Moraga loves using his boxing to force his opponents to wilt under this pressure. Moraga a versatile mixed martial artist who is competent in all of the pertinent disciplines, but most importantly is the fact that he is a gritty competitor who is tough as nails. Recently it has appeared though the former Arizona State wrestler had plateaued — if not downright fallen off — following two straight losses. Dropping fights to the cream of the flyweight crop in Joseph Benavidez and Demetrious Johnson is one thing, but when Moraga was bested everywhere by Matheus Nicolau it set off alarm bells.

Against Nicolau we watched as Moraga had absolutely no answers and was consistently unable to get his hands on his opponent. For most of the fight Nicolau was able to set up shop on the outside landing continuous kicks and crisp combinations that never allowed Moraga to find his footing. Incidentally, the same style that hampered Moraga against Nicolau is exactly what Sergio excels at. Only with more speed. Stylistically I believe that this is a terrible fight for Moraga and see Sergio as 3-1 favorite so long as he fights to potential.

It's a little slow noteworthy that Moraga has indicated to the public that if he were to lose this fight to Sergio he would most likely be retiring. I don't believe it's ever wise to put your money on a fighter with one foot out the door.

As long as the youngster stays out of Moraga's vice like guillotine, I believe he cruises to a comfortable unanimous decision. Perhaps even finding a stoppage along the way. I'll almost certainly be playing Sergio ML and the over 2.5 in my parlays.

Prediction: Pettis by Decision

Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger vs. Nina Ansaroff

Both of these Strawweightsnare riding 2 fight losing streaks and most likely a single loss away from receiving a pink slip should they exit the cage in second place.

As for the match itself, I anticipate Ansaroff performing at the highest clip we've seen thus far. While she has dropped her last two, she was robbed against Kishinev in one of the most dreadful decisions in 2016. That said, working with the crew at American top team, Ansaroff is getting great sparring partners daily not to mention the fact that she is the girlfriend of current Bantamweight Queen-Pin Amanda Nunes. Mentally she seems to be in the best place possible and training with the crew of killers in Coconut Creek, Florida, I expect she will be physically prepared as well. Meanwhile, JJL is a Jill-Of-All-Trades's whose team in Arizona at the notable him MMA lab has sculpted her into a tough out for any female as she is extremely well-rounded with fantastic conditioning. Essentially, Jocelyn could best be described as the version of Court McGee with a pair of X chromosomes.

A black belt Taekwondo, Ansaroff has a terrific striking, cuts angles nicely and punishes her opponents when they come in without setting anything up. The skills of Ansaroff were demonstrated and her most recent outing as she pieced up respected Thai striker Justine Kish with repeated counters. Though she's a serviceable striker, JJL is predominantly basic in the fundamentals and is a rank amateur compared to Ansarof. Most often JJL relies heavily on her toughness to see her through.

I believe that JJL may be out for depth here and Nina will be able to pick her off from the fringe and then have her eating shot after shot when she commits to attacking in close. Additionally, if the fight hits the mat, it is Nina who should have a marked advantage over Lybarger. With her Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu purple belt and flexibility, Nia has a dangerous guard game and is a constant threat in the grappling department.

Look for Nina to make this a one-sided affair potentially getting a stoppage in the second stanza once JJL gets frustrated and starts taking risks trying to close the distance. However, if in fact it does go to the judges, I'm confident that they will get it right this time.

Prediction: Nina Ansaroff via Decision.

Preliminary Card

Frankie Saenz vs. Augusto Mendes : Frankie + o2.5
Alexey Olyinyk vs. Viktor Pesta : Olyinyk + u1.5
Tony Martin vs. Alex White : Love Martin here for the win and submission.
Devin Powell vs. Drakkar Klose : Like Klose a lot!
Walt Harris vs. Chase Sherman : Harris x TKO
Joachim Christensen vs. Bojan Mihajlovic : Joachim
Cyril Asker vs. Dmitrii Smoliakov : Asker and over 2.5

Much quicker to get through the thread when you put some of the pricks on ignore list.

Awesome breakdown as per, thanks mate and good luck
 
Yea, Parillo has worked wonders with older fighters who have previously not demonstrated much punching power or tight fundamentals in a boxing centric approach. Not only was he able to achieve great things with Michael Bisping but perhaps his best work was done with a then 37-year-old Ortiz who Jason coached when Ortiz starched the much younger more athletic Ryan Bader before choking him out.

Coincidentally, Tito entered that fight with Ryan Bader winless over the course of five years and had looked like a shell of himself up until that point. BJ Penn is much more talented of a boxer then Ortiz with fa more fluidity to his punches. Just throwing that out there.

True.. and an early KO by Penn would definitely make it the fight of the night.
And considering how overconfident and reckless Rodriguez seems to be, the chanche is definitely there.

What do you think of Ortiz & Bisping next rounds against Sonnen & Romero?
Are Ortiz and Bisping still with Jason Parillo?

Oh, and great point also on Moraga being "one foot out the door" being another reason to go for Pettis.
 
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SkyBet has under 2.5 T/KOs for the 8 televised fights at +100.

I actually quite like it, don't see too many obvious fights to end in T/KO after the FP prelims. Thoughts?
 
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