UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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at the same he has faced edgar x3 and rory+diaz all fighters that would likely school yair easily too..
Yeah that's all fine and dandy. But it doesn't take away from the fact that he hasn't looked good in the cage in a very long time. How sure are you that he isn't just showing up for a paycheck? He isn't going up against a can, he's going up against a top prospect in the division and, while flawed, has more than enough to put BJ away.
Depends on how well the rest of the night is going. I feel comfortable with half a unit ML at the moment, and him being the final leg in some lottery tickets.

BJ wants a sub yes, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him implement a Greg Jackson lay and pray strategy, and if a sub comes it comes. That would be best case for me: bj wrestling for rounds 1 and 2.
When was the last time BJ has implemented a lay and pray strategy?! Can't teach an old dog new tricks, especially when his opponent is much more athletic than he is
 
I pussed out of my Bj penn bet. I promised myself last year not to do stupid bets new year and I am very well disciplined young man and im not gonna bet on bj. Ill just pass this fight and see what happens
Regarding Alex White and Tony Martin

What am I missing here help me?!? I've watched countless video footage of Tony Martin and Alex White and every time I come away with the same conclusion and that is with Martin having his hand raised. I get to this conclusion because of the myriad superior assets Martin should have.

Martin should have a prodigious size and strength edge, augmented by a protracted BJJ advantage. I just envision Martin using these tools to take Alex down and strangle him.

Not only is Martin the bigger man here, but Alex is is taking this fight on short notice and moving up from his natural 145 pound weight class. This to tangle with the already monstrously large lightweight in Martin. Indeed, Martin is a giant 155 pound fighter with the wingspan of a condor and owner of the resourceful gangly arms and legs that enable him to wrap his opponent up like a fucking octopus when he gets them down. Specifically, Tony Martin is a Brown Belt in BJJ and should have a significant advantage over Alex should he be able to implement his wrestling and/or force him into a grappling exchange. Conversely, Alex is merely a Blue Belt in BJJ and will beat a significant size disadvantage to make matters worse.

Martin is an expert back taker and is great with all chokes but he is particularly proficient at or using his gorilla strength to contort arm joints in positions joints into ways that they aren't supposed to bend. For reference see how he submitted BJJ Black Belt ace Fabrício Camões with a gnarly kimura lock.

Stylistically this fight favors Martin too. Alex is predominantly a boxer/Thai striker with a mediocre grappling game at best. Worse still, his takedown defense is quite woeful. Given all of these aforementioned facts, I don't understand why there is so much late money coming in on White.

Inarguably Martin has a suspect gas tank and has wilted late in bouts like unattended household shrubbery at times, but it should be noted that he did so against top shelf competition. Specifically, Martin has only dropped fights to top 10 competition in Beneil Dariush by to Rashid Magomedov and then Brazilian jujitsu master Leonardo's Santos. That is a Santos who just so happens to be undefeated inside the octagon through 6 fights thus far. Meanwhile, in stark opposition contrast, Alex was dusted in the third round by Lucas Martins and decisioned by the inimitable "Cassius" Clay Collard of all people.

I know that both fighters have have substandard success in the octagon, but the schedule of competition is not even in the same stratosphere. I mean, I find very limited paths to victory for White to win without Martin being a willing participant. Essentially Martin would need to significantly run out of steam in rounds two and three to drop this fight as I see it. Nevertheless, he is currently up all the way to -165 when just a couple of days ago he was -220 or worse.

Am I missing something here?

Dont worry.. MARTIN is a big mother fucker. White gets love because he dominated much smaller artem lobov (who looked in terrible shape in that fight) thats why casuals go big on him last minute. i dont think White looked good in anyo ther fight than lobov one. iv got Martin also winning this fight easily. dont let yourself fool of the last minute white smashing. fuck these casuals. we are experts here.. we are making money!
 
Just wasted so much of my time. Gonna go and pound my girl before the event starts. Please stop making me reply. Anyone who disagrees with me is unequivocally wrong, simples.
 
Say what now? If BJ wrestles for the first 2 you're fucked. BJ's cardio has always been bad.

Nope, winning the first 2 rounds with wrestling means either a sub, or getting an improved price on yair going into the 3rd. I would be open to switching all of my risk to yair at that point depending on how the fight is playing out. These are just some different possible scenarios.

In a friendlier tone, be careful, you don't want to get banned again, you are getting pretty emotional.
 
Yeah that's all fine and dandy. But it doesn't take away from the fact that he hasn't looked good in the cage in a very long time. How sure are you that he isn't just showing up for a paycheck? He isn't going up against a can, he's going up against a top prospect in the division and, while flawed, has more than enough to put BJ away.

When was the last time BJ has implemented a lay and pray strategy?! Can't teach an old dog new tricks, especially when his opponent is much more athletic than he is

Vs Fitch
 
I seriously don't understand why everyone is using this point. It's irrelevant

If BJ fought the way he did against Edgar in his last fight against ANY of the top 15, he would have still been pummeled. It looked like he didn't know how to fight. Just because he was in there with great fighters doesn't mean he would have smashed any of the top 15 at the time

A better point to consider is the fact that his last win is 7 years ago over a washed up fighter who retired a few months afterwards

If you're betting on him for fun, fine, but the bottom line is a bet on BJ is nothing more than throwing a dart with a blindfold on. Maybe the dirt still hits, but there's no recent tape to prove he can still compete at this level and therefore no reason to believe his line has value. It's as simple as that, and I don't get why it's so hard for people to understand.

i am betting him becourse he is fighting yair hwo have not been tested much so far and i think he has a better chance of winning then the odds suggest nothing else.. even though penn is old and dont have a win in ages he still has has world class bjj and his standup should look much better compared to his last fight now that he is with proper coaches
 
damn i still havent made a bet on saunder / mcee. I wanna bet ben but his cardio concerns me also he tends to fold when things dont go his way. i had him winning vs cote and he fucked me over big time. cant think about ben anymore. fuck what to do?

@Buddy Brown WMMA expert. who ya got nina or bones? iv got nina. think bones has just reach which she doesnt use well and nothing else.
 
Nope, winning the first 2 rounds with wrestling means either a sub, or getting an improved price on yair going into the 3rd. I would be open to switching all of my risk to yair at that point depending on how the fight is playing out. These are just some different possible scenarios.

In a friendlier tone, be careful, you don't want to get banned again, you are getting pretty emotional.
I'm not emotional and I'm not insulting anyone. I respectfully argued my side with facts. I've realized some people will never "get it" no matter how much I try to prove them wrong, so I'm going to take the frustration out on my girl. I'll be relaxed when I come back in an hour.
 
damn i still havent made a bet on saunder / mcee. I wanna bet ben but his cardio concerns me also he tends to fold when things dont go his way. i had him winning vs cote and he fucked me over big time. cant think about ben anymore. fuck what to do?

@Buddy Brown WMMA expert. who ya got nina or bones? iv got nina. think bones has just reach which she doesnt use well and nothing else.
Yeah Nina should win but I'd rather passionately kiss Jared Rosholt's chest than bet on a WMMA favorite ever again.
 
BREAKING: Big Nog has announced he's coming out of retirement, saying he wants the HW belt. He'll be facing rising prospect Francis Ngannou and training with JacksonWink. He assures his fans that he's as motivated as ever and "back for real this time" and that "kicking ass is timeless".

Odds:
Big Nog +385
Ngannou -400


Question to serious BJ backers:

Is Big Nog good value because he's a former champ and has a big grappling advantage?

Ummm, I think Yair wins but I'm putting a sprinkle on BJ just because of his odds and the fact BLR gave Yair fits.

Comparing BJ to Nog is a bad analogy. Nog's chassis has taken more damage than the vehicles at a MonsterTruck rally. BJ has spent a lot of years in the game but doesn't have much mileage racked up on his body.

A better comparison would have been talking people out of betting Tito Ortiz against Ryan Bader when you could've made the same argument. Tito hadn't won a fight in five years and his only wins were against Ken fucking Shamrock of all people. Then he steps in and waxes Bader inside the first frame. What's more, BJ has taken for less damage than Tito and he's for more skilled as well. So yea..
 
Just wasted so much of my time. Gonna go and pound my girl before the event starts. Please stop making me reply. Anyone who disagrees with me is unequivocally wrong, simples.

More like rub one out to sears catalogue...
 
Are you confused as to what lay and pray is? In both the first and second round, he got Fitch's back after getting the takedown. He never laid on Fitch and stalled to secure the round.

Oh and that fight was about 6 years ago btw
 
just rewatched sherman vs ledet. holy shit sherman gassed in 2 minutes. Confidence hyper turbo increase Harris.
 
Martin is my biggest play. He should smoke White. As said Marin has actually been fighting legit high level competition, and being competitive.

same. and i expect to have a good price on white live if martin doesn't tap him early, if we need to hedge etc.
 
HAHA just saw news where moraga cried about fighter pay. The mind is in the wrong place. usually the ones who whine before the fight lose. Confidence increase Sergio
 
damn i still havent made a bet on saunder / mcee. I wanna bet ben but his cardio concerns me also he tends to fold when things dont go his way. i had him winning vs cote and he fucked me over big time. cant think about ben anymore. fuck what to do?

@Buddy Brown WMMA expert. who ya got nina or bones? iv got nina. think bones has just reach which she doesnt use well and nothing else.

Are you on 5d? Saunders NSC -180 bro if you are (can't remember if you're American or Euro, sorry). Yeah Court may win a decision, but can't see him finishing Ben. But Ben could stop Court. Love this bet.
 
I dont think any of the Penn bettors are expecting him to win, I bet small on him because there is no point in betting on Yair and my book only offers O/U and ML bets. I have no favoritism to Penn because I wasnt anything more than a casual during his era, just being a gambler on a fight that could potentially pay out pretty good if it upsets, Is there really anything wrong with that because you seem pretty mad over anyone betting on Penn
 
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