Regarding Alex White and Tony Martin
What am I missing here help me?!? I've watched countless video footage of Tony Martin and Alex White and every time I come away with the same conclusion and that is with Martin having his hand raised. I get to this conclusion because of the myriad superior assets Martin should have.
Martin should have a prodigious size and strength edge, augmented by a protracted BJJ advantage. I just envision Martin using these tools to take Alex down and strangle him.
Not only is Martin the bigger man here, but Alex is is taking this fight on short notice and moving up from his natural 145 pound weight class. This to tangle with the already monstrously large lightweight in Martin. Indeed, Martin is a giant 155 pound fighter with the wingspan of a condor and owner of the resourceful gangly arms and legs that enable him to wrap his opponent up like a fucking octopus when he gets them down. Specifically, Tony Martin is a Brown Belt in BJJ and should have a significant advantage over Alex should he be able to implement his wrestling and/or force him into a grappling exchange. Conversely, Alex is merely a Blue Belt in BJJ and will beat a significant size disadvantage to make matters worse.
Martin is an expert back taker and is great with all chokes but he is particularly proficient at or using his gorilla strength to contort arm joints in positions joints into ways that they aren't supposed to bend. For reference see how he submitted BJJ Black Belt ace Fabrício Camões with a gnarly kimura lock.
Stylistically this fight favors Martin too. Alex is predominantly a boxer/Thai striker with a mediocre grappling game at best. Worse still, his takedown defense is quite woeful. Given all of these aforementioned facts, I don't understand why there is so much late money coming in on White.
Inarguably Martin has a suspect gas tank and has wilted late in bouts like unattended household shrubbery at times, but it should be noted that he did so against top shelf competition. Specifically, Martin has only dropped fights to top 10 competition in Beneil Dariush by to Rashid Magomedov and then Brazilian jujitsu master Leonardo's Santos. That is a Santos who just so happens to be undefeated inside the octagon through 6 fights thus far. Meanwhile, in stark opposition contrast, Alex was dusted in the third round by Lucas Martins and decisioned by the inimitable "Cassius" Clay Collard of all people.
I know that both fighters have have substandard success in the octagon, but the schedule of competition is not even in the same stratosphere. I mean, I find very limited paths to victory for White to win without Martin being a willing participant. Essentially Martin would need to significantly run out of steam in rounds two and three to drop this fight as I see it. Nevertheless, he is currently up all the way to -165 when just a couple of days ago he was -220 or worse.
Am I missing something here?