UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

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Anyone have any read on when Li Jingliang and Nash arrived into Denver/trained at altitude?

Li Jingliang could have the tools to cause problems for the still young Nash but damn Nash does hold some real power in his hands and enough understanding aggressively to land. Quite large defensive holes however which really come to light when someone manages to pressure - Nash has also been fighting in an absolutely tiny cage which may hurt his understanding of space. This could be a total undoing as he finds himself chasing over the cage however Li Jingliang is not the type to shy away.
I don't think you can trust either man here but I feel there's a good chance the under cashes - most likely by KO.
 
HumbleCoco said:
Anyone have any read on when Li Jingliang and Nash arrived into Denver/trained at altitude?

Li Jingliang could have the tools to cause problems for the still young Nash but damn Nash does hold some real power in his hands and enough understanding aggressively to land. Quite large defensive holes however which really come to light when someone manages to pressure - Nash has also been fighting in an absolutely tiny cage which may hurt his understanding of space. This could be a total undoing as he finds himself chasing over the cage however Li Jingliang is not the type to shy away.
I don't think you can trust either man here but I feel there's a good chance the under cashes - most likely by KO.
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Both have power and both are hittable. Li has the better boxing tho.
 
Just did some extra research in Spicely and Di Chirico and Shelton vs Pantoja

And I am making a confident pick on Spicely. Main reason is that when spicely beat a guy like Thiago santos I bet his confidence is now thrrough the roof. In his head he now knows he can do it to anybody... fighting is 90% in ur head. He looked good in standup.I think Spicely is lot faster on the feet than Di Chirico. I dont see anything spectacular in DiChirico's game. And think constant takedown threats make him hesitant and he cant throw his hands. Spicely did his camp at tristar and IM SURE he has a great gameplan coming in. I dont know where this chirico hype came from before his first fights. Spicely for the win here!

Pantoja vs Shelton is evenly matched but I have some weird inside feeling about Sheltons victory. Im gonna trust my heart again and will go with Eric Shelton.
 
iGnP said:
Risk 2700? How so? If any of team a b or c lose, you're only down 300
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Ummm not quite! If using straight bets, that money is yours. If team A&B won, but team C lost you'd be risking 2700 that was yours. Yes, the net for the day may have been the 300 you started with but it was yours to do what you want with. Each profit is YOUR "hard earned money" before you decide to place it on the next bet.
Your logic assumes:
300 original bet
Team A odds + 200 - PROFIT 600 plus bet of 300 Bankroll = 900
Team B odds + 200 - PROFIT 1800 plus bet of 900 Bankroll = 2700
Team C odds + 200 - PROFIT 5400 plus bet of 2700 Bankroll = 8100
Total profit 7800 plus original BR of 300 for a new total bankroll of 8100.

This is a broken down how a parlay is though. To achieve this through straight bets you'd have to decide to up your stakes and bet 900 on Team B and 2700 on team C. Most people preach bankroll management and would continue betting 300 for each fight.
So if they just bet by unit and didn't "let it all ride" they would have profited 1800 vs 7800.
This is why I say some people should mix in parlays. Most of us aren't comfortable betting 9x our usual stakes when we already have the money in our account.
Note: these levels are much higher too. I recommend a much smaller amount staked for parlays.
In other words - If a bettor is accustomed to betting 300 per fight - and bets on a -300 favorite to win 100. I think it would be more profitable to do 30 $10 mixed parlays. The 300 bet alone would lose 1/4 times or so. The 3 parlays give a lot of chances to win - and that could possibly be a lot more than 100 bucks.
 
I haven't gone deep into Knight and Caceres history so if anyone feels they've got a good read - Does Caceres have good ability on the ground with escapes? (against someone not done like Miller).


Knight/Hooker was a very similar match up - Hooker uses good lateral movement to land on the angles off-beat much like Caceres. Knight showed good footwork bringing Hooker into a range where that 1,2 could land with some bite. Then some very well timed takedowns brought the real scoring in the fight.
However, in round 2 I can't help but feel Hooker was mentally shut out - maybe he bought too much into being a hyped favourite. His output died in round 2 and did little to scramble or respond. R3 he began to come back in against a gassed Knight but Knight was still timing power shots enough to stop a takeover. Something I don't see from Caceres - he's not invested enough to cry over a lost round.

This reads to be is that Knight knows how to win this fight but might gas too hard and lose R2 and R3 to a potshotting Caceres as long as he can avoid the ground -which I'm not sure on. I might dig deeper tomorrow or tonight, so far I feel analytically Knight gets just enough off R2 to win a 29-28 Livebet after R1 looks to be the best play.

PS Caceres Sub R3 is 36.00... If Knight gasses beyond belief there could that RNC follow up or guillotine on a lazy takedown. Going to put something on that.
 
Officer_Brown said:
Just did some extra research in Spicely and Di Chirico and Shelton vs Pantoja

And I am making a confident pick on Spicely. Main reason is that when spicely beat a guy like Thiago santos I bet his confidence is now thrrough the roof. In his head he now knows he can do it to anybody... fighting is 90% in ur head. He looked good in standup.I think Spicely is lot faster on the feet than Di Chirico. I dont see anything spectacular in DiChirico's game. And think constant takedown threats make him hesitant and he cant throw his hands. Spicely did his camp at tristar and IM SURE he has a great gameplan coming in. I dont know where this chirico hype came from before his first fights. Spicely for the win here!

Pantoja vs Shelton is evenly matched but I have some weird inside feeling about Sheltons victory. Im gonna trust my heart again and will go with Eric Shelton.
Click to expand...

With you on Shelton - and there's good reasoning IMO. I watched all of TUF and while Pantoja is a dogged ground worker - so is Tim Elliot and Shelton could have easily taken that decision - Tim Elliot even thought he should have won their fight. He's athletic and powerful which a huge advantage to work his way out of the clinch and turn even if his back does get taken. However I don't see that happening. Pantoja is Nova Uniao and now Shelton is a fast developing prospect under Bang in Denver. That screams to me that he will have an advantage on the feet, despite Pantoja being more seasoned. The only lingering issue is that he is not as fast as some of the peers in this division - a lot of those bang combinations rely on that speed and timing but I feel he might still develop on that too.

Spicely is also a play but I wish there was more value - might still go half a unit on sub. You have to think that against the strikers he's got at Tristar if he manages to get inside and take them down he should be proficient enough to lay up a middling fighter.
 
Finally some Spice love (albeit im sitting on the fence). Something i also forgot to mention yday is Bojan prob would have submitted Chirico end of r2 if he wasn't saved by the bell. Gonna be a good lb fight.
 
Okey f4ggotz here it is who ever wants to copy me I don't mind..
<{1-15}>

Shevchenko $300
Arlovski $300 (value, altitude, jackson/wink, brawl)
Marquardt $300
Sterling $300
Nash $300
Johnson $300
Spicely $300
Rogerio De Meathead $300
Shelton $300
Cottrell $300

Shevchenko/Johnson/DeLima/Cottrell $300 to win $1914
Marquardt/Spicely/Shelton $300 to win $2340
Shevchenko/Sterling/Spicely/Cottrell $300 to win $3387
Shevchenko/Cerrone/Arlovski/Knight/Marquardt/Sterling/Nash/Johnson/Spicely/Meathead/Shelton/Cottrell $30 to win $66,000
 
HumbleCoco said:
Anyone have any read on when Li Jingliang and Nash arrived into Denver/trained at altitude?

Li Jingliang could have the tools to cause problems for the still young Nash but damn Nash does hold some real power in his hands and enough understanding aggressively to land. Quite large defensive holes however which really come to light when someone manages to pressure - Nash has also been fighting in an absolutely tiny cage which may hurt his understanding of space. This could be a total undoing as he finds himself chasing over the cage however Li Jingliang is not the type to shy away.
I don't think you can trust either man here but I feel there's a good chance the under cashes - most likely by KO.
Click to expand...

Both has been there for a bit, not sure how long. Nash said he'd been out for a while on some interview on MMAoddsbreaker and all I could find on Jingliang was this:
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1030448.shtml where it says he's in Denver for the camp.

I have a bit on Jingliang, not loving the how Nash hits so fucking hard and how he's been in Denver for a bit, but a UFC vet who's pretty good and could with slightly better fight IQ and some other judges be 5-0 in the UFC vs a short notice guy who looks very average (although improving) and hasn't translated his wrestling to MMA very well. Give me the vet at 1.7 or whatever odds are right now.
 


I hope for the sake of the division Ngannou wins. Holy fuark he's a scarryyy human being
 
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Officer_Brown said:
Okey f4ggotz here it is who ever wants to copy me I don't mind..
<{1-15}>

Shevchenko $300
Arlovski $300 (value, altitude, jackson/wink, brawl)
Marquardt $300
Sterling $300
Nash $300
Johnson $300
Spicely $300
Rogerio De Meathead $300
Shelton $300
Cottrell $300

Shevchenko/Johnson/DeLima/Cottrell $300 to win $1914
Marquardt/Spicely/Shelton $300 to win $2340
Shevchenko/Sterling/Spicely/Cottrell $300 to win $3387
Shevchenko/Cerrone/Arlovski/Knight/Marquardt/Sterling/Nash/Johnson/Spicely/Meathead/Shelton/Cottrell $30 to win $66,000
Click to expand...
Confidence increased Nash :D

#suplexcity
 
HumbleCoco said:


I hope for the sake of the division Ngannou wins. Holy fuark he's a scarryyy human being
Click to expand...


He is . Hope he will be champion one day. MMA HW div need this kind of monster.
Would love to see him next against Reem!
 
Jesus , Francis coach must live in constant pain.
 
Regarding the parlay talks, last event I hit two 8 person parlays and also some 5 parlays,also some 3 parlays and I got $2,811.00 profit. I was confident in my parlays, only fight I wasn't was Held/Lauzon. So I did two 8 leg parlays with Held on the end of one and Lauzon on the end of the other one. I also hit a 11 parlay a few months back when all the favorites wn that night, even thought that was a lucky parlay that hit. Parlays can def hit if your confident in it. I tend to like to keep in under 4, but I also throw some 6-8 parlays if I feel confident. Don't get me wrong parlays are risky but once they hit your in the plus a great bit. I don't bet favorites more then -170 in my parlays, its not worth it. These days I spend about $100 on parlays and then single bet props each fight. Had great succeed over the last few months. I have also keep a track record of my bet history, and I can post it here as well.
 
Conor - W = 1-0
Glover - L = 1-1
Pettis - W = 2-1
Maia - W = 3-1
Barnett - W = 4-1
Stipe - W = 5-1
Brunson - W = 6-1
Muhammad - W = 7-1
Dunham - W = 8-1
Poirier - L = 8-2
Randy Brown - W = 9-2
Franca - L = 9-3
Alan Patrick - W - 10-4
Erick Silva - W = 11-4
Santos - L = 11-5
Nelson - W = 12-5
Cyborg - W = 13-5
Marquart - W = 14-5
Burkman - L = 14-6
Brooks - L = 14-7
Dodson - L = 14-8
Danny Roberts - L = 14-9
Bisbing - W = 15-9
Nakamura - L - = 15-10
LAMAS - w - 16-10
BARZOLA - W - 17-10
REYES - W - 18-10
RDA - L - 18-11
WOODLEY - DRAW - 18-11-1
ROMERO - W - 19 -11-1
MILLER - W - 20-11-1
JJ - W - 21-11-1
NATAL - L - 21-12-1
stevie ray - 22-12
Magusm - L - 22-13
Ledet - W- 23-13
RAZ - W - 24-13
Danielle taylor- w - 25-13
Devin Clark - W - 26-13
Camozzi - L - 26-14
Font - W - 27-14
Cejudo - L - 27-15
Holloway - W - 28-15
Kenndey - L - 28-16
Gagnon - L - 28-17
Vannata - W - 29-17
Sandoval - L - 29-18
Faber - W - 30-18
Jouban - W - 31-18
Wineland - W - 32-18
Cody - W - 33-18
Means - NO CONEST
Garcia - W - 34-18
Magny - W - 35-18
Junior - W - 36-18
Walt - W - 37-18
Saunders - W - 38-18
Lauzon - W - 39-18
tito - W - 40-18

Overall = 40-18 for %68.9 Success

Underdog picks -
Erick Silva - W
Alan Patrick - W
Marquart - W
MILLER - W
ROMERO - W
WOODLEY - DRAW
Stevie Ray - W
Cezar - W
Cejudo - L
Danielle taylor - W
Jouban - w
Cody - W
Tito - W


11-1-1 on underdog picks.

This is my bet record. Right now I am looking at Masvidal and Marquardt as the underdog I want to target. I also see value in Marquardt/Alvey's going to the distance because I think Marquardt can stay at range and use his kicks and will also have the speed advantage over Alvey. But I will wait for the weigh ins to post my final prediction. I also like Jason Knight as good bit. Those are the only 3 fights I am looking at. Maybe parlaying those three with N'Gannou ITD.

For the last 4 event I have decided to wait to see the weigh ins before I make any bets. I don;t care about getting a good early line or etc, waiting till after the weighs ins make a difference IMO, and I will keep this strategy going forward. Will post my final predictions after the weigh ins.
 
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As far as the parlay talk everyone has their own way of doing things. If you don't like parlays and don't think they have value that's your opinion but parlays work for others including myself.
 
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