UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[MMA Goodfella]

Ok guys, I just had to interrupt the discussion as late as it is to interject my opinion that anyone who is betting five or six team parlay's is not going to have long-term success. If you only have one or two of these for a Hail Mary parlay, I can understand, but to make multiple four and five team parlay's and expect to have a statistical advantage over the house is delusional.

I'll make a two team parlay maximum with maybe one HM parlay that consisting of more than three team. Also, putting one fighter in one parlay and one fighter in another who are competing against themselves is the definition of insanity. i.e. Cowboy in one Mas in the other...not smart.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I'll take what you said constructively as long as you do the same, bud!

- The Mas/Cerrone example I used was a bad example. I'll switch up some fights so I have more possibilities. Ex. Cerrone + Pena in one and Mas + Shev in another. I only do this on multi leg parlays - 5 legs or more. Once in a while I will do opposite sides for one fight - I know one of them will lose but one of them will win. I understand I'm paying a little juice here.. Similar to how many others hedge/buy out of single fights. However, I may only add the 2nd fighter after odds have changed in my favor.
- I didn't say I randomly throw in fights in not sure about. I do think being a winning parlay bettor needs to have underdogs though. I WILL throw an UD I wasn't sure about into some parlays. I don't bet every fight. If I see value on an UD I will throw it into some legs of my parlays.
- like I said I have done very well with this method. My single bets pay for my parlays + some profit. I use parlays as a way to exponentially better my good events. I don't stake a lot on any event and have won a lot.
- Again, you are dismissing the hedge value of parlays. Everything is an equation. Parlay hedging can guarantee a win vs. some hedges I see here on single bets, which just pay juice a reduce risk/exposure.

I'm a consultant for one of the worlds biggest banks. I'm not an idiot and understand the numbers. I also see how some despise the way I do it it. It works for me though, Bud.

I don't have the time right now, maybe someone else does, but there is so much wrong with this method. It's not my opinion, it's an absolute statistical fact that this is a losing long term strategy. I beg that anyone who is following this thread and just getting into sports betting not follow this strategy. Seriously, I mean no disrespect whatsoever, but this method is absolutely fundamentally flawed. The biggest problem – aside from multiple parlays that include underdogs – is you having cowboy and one parlay and Mas in the other. That is just crazy.

If I have the time I'll try and explain why you aren't going to benefit long-term from this. Maybe someone else already has and I just haven't caught up with it yet. Best of luck though.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I have many examples. This is one of the reasons that parlays with MMA are different than other sports. Other sports often start at the same time, or before the next contest ends. So some may parlay football games that start at the same time but they can't be hedged - they lose 1 of 6 legs and are screwed. With MMA they start one after another, so if I have a 4+ leg parlay that comes down to the last event I can guarantee a win. I also COULD have bet on the first fight and roll my winnings over after winning but I don't like risking a large amount/everything in that way. Often times I'm single betting the fights too.
I've had countless examples of parlays that came down to the last 2 legs where I was able to hedge and guarantee a big win, all from the original low stake/risk. How are you able to guarantee yourself a win with a single bet? Now that I'd like to know!!!

BTW : hedging is in and of it's self a losing long-term strategy

 

[Card]

 

[HeDucking]

I'm not buying the Ngannou hype. He hasn't beat fucking anybody.. all these heavyweights look like killers until they fight someone like Arlovski.

This card isn't the best for betting imo. A lot of pick-ems.

There are some good spots on this card, no doubt about that. You haven't bought in to the Ngannou hype? You'll for sure buy in tomorrow.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

"We have the inconvenient truth. That's the weigh ins, and the staredowns"

This new guy sucks

I heard that too lol I I actually had to rewind the tape to make sure I heard it correctly. Made absolutely no fucking sense whatsoever. Goldie is gone for one week and we've already got one Goldieism from this buffoon LOL

 

[MMA Goodfella]

So hard to decipher whats being said cause of fucking Michelle Waterson and this jackass idea of having people commentate this shit. Literally impossible to decipher the beginning of the convo.

but yeah it sounds like Mas says that. Wouldn't understand the context of such a statement unless Mas was lying and Cerrone has whooped him when they trained together and possibly called him out for it. It was Cerrone who initiated the talk.

Im on Cerrone so im gonna choose to believe that

Not sure about today's conversation, but in an interview I watched cowboy admitted that he had a lot of trouble with Jorge in the gym. Said that Jorge did in fact take him down and give him problems sparring, but the fight is different. Said that of course he was taken down because his wrestling "sucks". Clearly he was being self-deprecating. Just remember though it was Jorge who was the one who called out cowboy and not the other way around. So Jorge must have a bit of confidence in how things played out in the gym if he was to call out cowboy by name. Certainly you're not going to call out somebody who was whipping your ass every day LOL

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I really like Shevchenko but can't bet on her now at current odds. It's just hard to figure out how this fight will go. Shev's last fight against Holm won't tell us much about how this one will play out, quite a contrasting style compared to Pena. It does seem like Shev is a bit of a slow starter. Losing first 2 rounds to Nunes and likely the first to Holly bc of the knockdown. Hoping the bullet price drops. Other than that on Nate the Great and a sprinkle on Di Chirico.

The one thing that concerns me about Valentina is her guard game. The one fight that is most disconcerting when bringing this up is her fight against Sarah Kaufman. In her fight against Kaufman, the third round was rough on Valentina. I mean, once Kaufman grounded her, she passed guard like a hot knife cutting through butter and solidified the mount position but only had less than a minute to work. The last couple minutes of that Kaufman fight should give up all Valentina backers butterflies in the belly.

 

[mkess101]

Im not paying the juice but frankenstein is getting wrestlefucked for three rounds. His tdd is porous and he is goung to gas hard.

I will gladly pay the juice. Frankenstein+elevation=he's most likely fucked if he doesn't finish in rd 1. And if you wanted a little hedge I guess playing Frankenstein rd 1 at +475 isn't awful. But after that I think this becomes one sided. Craig itd made me a lot of $ vs Frankenstien last time, and I think we see Frankenstein gas again after a round. I'm not sure if Johnson finishes or not, but I think he'll easily win rds 2 and 3.

Didn't @lefontes say a while back that Frankenstein wasn't going early at all to get acclimated? A guy with a suspect (at best) gas tank?

Johnson -200 is good for me. Also little stabs at his rd 2 prop at +525 and his rd 3 prop at +825.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

That weigh in show was absolutely brutal. The new guy called Cowboy "David" and he called Pena "Jessica". Waterson stumbling over her words and DC was off too. Everyone seemed drunk besides Cruz. Embarrassing really.

Ha! yeah, it was like they were drinking leftover eggnog from New Year's LOL even Dom made a Goldberg like statement. As one of the fighters was walking to the scales Dominic sad – not verbatim – "now let's see how he looks on the scales although he already weighed in this morning" or something real similar to that LOL… I'll try to find exactly and post it. It was bizarre.


EDIT: it was with de Cherico and Dom he said "will see how his weight looks on the scales. Even though he already made it" WTF? #LeftoverEggnog

At 09:10 of the video

 

[Cord]

I don't have the time right now, maybe someone else does, but there is so much wrong with this method. It's not my opinion, it's an absolute statistical fact that this is a losing long term strategy.

You are correct.
To explain that quickly, I would say that, given that betting 50% on say Cerrone and 50% on his opponent Masvidal is clearly a losing bet, the consequence is that having two identical parlays and adding cerrone to the first parlay and masvidal to the second parlay betting 100$ on each parlay is statistically never preferrable than just betting on the original parlay 200$ without adding either cerrone or masvidal.

Similarly in the stock market it is always a losing gamble to go long and short at the same time but some casual traders do it nevertheless.

 

[Officer_Brown]

hahaha fucking bloodyfrauds.com staff morons

Staff picking Assuncao: Bissell, Nick, Fraser, Mookie, Phil, Ram, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Sterling:

 

[MMA Goodfella]

My money is on crewman, the original goat troll

I have wondered where he went LOL… I know he is around here somewherem hfa

 

[iGnP]

Someone tweet to Mas to ask him to post his bets on himself

 

[Basek]

this night Frankenstein will become bettors nightmare again hue hue no kidding he will get pwned badly.

LoL @ Mas belly at pick above
My man Bobby looking great
Shev put some muscles she looks bigger
Damn Sterling looks ready for war , Raphael somehow old imo

Can't wait !

 

[Officer_Brown]

So lets discuss who will be the one who fucks us over? it must be someone who we dont even consider to lose and everyone have him in their parlays. so whos is the dark horse smolka/santos tonight?

 

[Officer_Brown]

Ok guys, I just had to interrupt the discussion as late as it is to interject my opinion that anyone who is betting five or six team parlay's is not going to have long-term success. If you only have one or two of these for a Hail Mary parlay, I can understand, but to make multiple four and five team parlay's and expect to have a statistical advantage over the house is delusional.

I'll make a two team parlay maximum with maybe one HM parlay that consisting of more than three team. Also, putting one fighter in one parlay and one fighter in another who are competing against themselves is the definition of insanity. i.e. Cowboy in one Mas in the other...not smart.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Nnganou may kill parleezies

 

[Officer_Brown]

Nnganou may kill parleezies

ngannou is not worthy to be in parlays. I think people here are above average intelligence that they dont do that... ngannous best win is hamilton and andrei would wreck hamilton as well. not saying ngannou will lose but he so unproven at this point

 

[Officer_Brown]

mas and cowboy are both listed 5 11. it seems cowboy still has small height advantage. seriously thought masvidal would be the bigger man. masvidal was wearing flip flops and cowboy reebok trainers... maybe it has something to do with height