UFC FOX 23 - PBP/discussion

Have Shev/Ngannou parlay. Added a little on Pena in round 2 & 3 @ +1000 & +1475.
 
Would probably take one trip or take down from pena to see the lines flip
 
adding some small stabs on shev ko in r4 +2800 and r5 +4000
 
MMA Goodfella said:
Andrei Arlovski vs. Francis Ngannou
A heavyweight slobber knocker incoming! Über prospect Francis Ngannou aims to take out veteran HW — and future Hall of Famer — Andrei Arlovski in a tilt to put his name all the tips of the tongues of those in serious consideration for title contention.
This pairing features two strikers which will most likely engage in a virtual kick boxing match with 4 ounce gloves on. While the former heavyweight champion Arlovski is the more technical party, he's also long in the tooth and has shown himself to be quite chinny in previous outings. There was a bit of a rejuvenation period for "The Pit-Bull" when he made his UFC return, however fortunes have turned once more and but Arlovski seems to have fallen back down to earth and is on a terrible 3 fight skids.

For some reason I can't get the mental image of Brett Rogers blitzing Arlovski and leaving him crumpled in a heap of his own mess in their Strikeforce match up. Ngannou is everything that Brett Rogers is and then a thousand times more. It's possible that Andrei could use his veteran guil along with a Jacksonian game plan to drag the prospect into deep waters and test his gas tank in the elevation, but more than likely the French savage cracks Arlovski's jaw and for all intents and purposes puts an end to a long and very successful career.

Ngannou x KO r1 (value play 0.3u on Andrei round one +900)

Alex Caceres vs. Jason Knight
Brace yourself for featherweight madness as the Mississippi main hick Diaz also known as Jason Knight squares off against the always exciting Bruce Lee Roy. Both fighters or exciting as hell to watch and a bit under rated in their own right. Alex is a wild man in there with looking like something from a 1970s Blaxploitation B movie. Indeed, you get someone who looked like he walked straight off the set of "The Last Dragon" auditioning for the role of "Sho'nuff" with his 1000 Megawatt smile and trademark Afro blowing in the wind. Don't get it twisted though Bruce Lee Roy is a fucking smiling assassin. He may look like a baby faced free spirit, but dude can do legitimate damage with his fists and/or jujitsu skills.

Meanwhile, in stark contrast to Alex's fun loving style, Knight is all about getting his hands on you and the sooner the better. His countenance a permanent scowl, Knight is in perpetual "fuck you mode" from the moment he song says contract to his entrance to the cage. Indeed, Knight wants to inflict bodily harm to his opponent as if he just found the man who he saw kick his beloved hunting dog Cooter in the ribs and ran away. A grappler turned brawler, Knight is all about staying on the front foot and walking you down. Knight is happy to oblige them in a firefight or bring them to the mat and search for a submission finish. The Alan Belcher protégé is young, he's mean, and he is very talented.

This fight should be an absolute barn burner and I can't wait to watch it.
Hick Diaz by SD

Nate Marquardt vs. Sam Alvey

It's quite simple really, if you can stay on the outside and away from Sam's violent left hand, you are pretty much guaranteed a victory. Alvey may be the most one dimensional fighter in the UFC that is able to have the type of success he does given his absence of any sort of athleticism. He is slow, apathetic, plodding and he doesn't set anything up with feints or other trickery – but somehow he routinely wins via KO. How? He does it because he has some of the worst God gifted power punching we have witnessed. Basically the plan is simple, Alvey has nearly impenetrable TDD and is willing to remain incredibly patient and until his opponent enters the pocket — AKA the blast radius and then hey let's loose with a counter left to end the fight. Inside the blast radius Alvey bites down on his mouthpiece Waits for his opponent to throw a strike and then counter them with a mortar fire. Curtains.

No doubt, if this were 5 to 6 years ago, this isn't even a contest as Marquardt walks all over Smilin' Sam and he does it without breaking a sweat. Marquardt is extremely versatile with excellent kickboxing and has top shelf Brazilian jujitsu. The Colorado native has always possessed really good wrestling and an excellent top game for as long as I remember. After plateauing and then seemingly trending into irrelevancy, Marquardt has found a bit of a resurgence at 185 again. The method is by sticking to the basics. That is to say, he is using his impeccable timing and heavy hands to make up for his deteriorated reflexes and athleticism. The main problem with Marquardt is that he cannot take a punch anymore. Nevertheless, he's a salty dog veteran who just may be able to use his nearly 2 decades in this sport to his advantage and find a way to stay out of Sams wheelhouse and pick up a victory by out pointing his man in a ugly glorified kickboxing match.

At the end of the day, this bout may not be a aesthetically pleasing to viewers, but I do see a path to victory for the 50-plus fight veteran Marquardt. Ergo, I believe he is worth a small play as a dog.

Marquardt UD

Raphael Assuncao vs. Aljamain Sterling
Sterling is a fantastic talent because of his and night athleticism and terrific grappling. This due of makes him a legitimate threat for anyone in the division. However, much like other wrestlers before such as Bubba Jenkins and Darrion Caldwell, so far Aljo is just so uncomfortable in the striking department. If Aljo had Jason Knight's mindset, the kid would be a bonafide lock in a fight like this as it's thoroughly winnable. However, because he has that Bubba Jenkins and Brock Lesnar DNA, he doesn't like to get hit and this causes him to fatigue early and shoot for double leg takedown's from way outside. The result to this is Sterling gassing himself out for her before he should. This will only be compounded and the high altitude of Denver.

Meanwhile, Raphael Assuncao isn't as athletic, but he is extremely versatile with excellent kickboxing and top of the food chain BJJ skills. Rafael has proven that he can hang with superior athletes as he demonstrated in his victory against TJ Dillashaw. What's more, Assuncao is very smart inside the cage and rarely makes forced errors. If Sterling hasn't improved his striking and remains gun shy, Assuncao is going to piece him up in a three round kick boxing match. This is exactly what I think happens.

Assuncao x DEC
Click to expand...



Had three out of four almost perfect. And I am taking Valentina here.
 
this could depend on who is stronger in the clinch. could be 1 sided either way..
 
Let's get the draw here, I'm happy it's Herb, he will fuck something up.
 
Whats the live bet line gonna look like on Shev when she is taking down Pena and Pena can't get takedowns on her...
 
Rebel Lion deserves an A+ for consistently posting input that Shev is gonna work takedowns
 
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