If you want to keep up with my breakdowns, please check my first post - and the last ones as well:
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufn-103-rodriguez-vs-penn-phoenix.3429257/page-33#post-125924341
EDIT: I need to correct some formulas, they seem to be fucked up. I'll update asap.
First of all, I'd like to apologize for not posting anything on the past 2 events. Unfortunately my father in law is hospitalized and I just couldn't find time/patience to do it. However, you can check my tapology or our UFC Fantasy league to confirm my picks from the last events
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So basically here I lost everything because of Grasso. Fucking WMMA. I don't know why I still bet on this thing, but it is really what happened. I also missed a lot with Morono and Trujillo, I was quite confident on them as well.
Back to $0.
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Alright, a good event!
Good picks, good choices. I was disappointed with Brown ( I expected much more, but I got a huge confidence decrease now ) and Holly, but I still understand my bets.
I could make some profit on this one.
Good value bets, maybe the value is not correct, but it was close to that IIRC:
Glenn R2/3, Teixeira R2/3, Silva R2/3 and DEC (+900), BoetschKO +800, Cannonier DEC (+900), Sasaki DEC (+750+), Nover DEC (+400), LaFlare R2/3 (+1200/+1500) and Makhachev R2/3 all had good odds for me.
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There goes my ideas for the next event:
5 - Lewis - KO (1/2)
Not too much to think here, it is a heavyweight fight and Lewis is a powerhouse. I'm not sure about Browne's condition - Don't get me wrong, I think he can beat and maybe is better than Lewis, but I'm not sure about the moment.
Browne dec at +700 has good value. Fight GTD at +450 is not so bad as well
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4 - Lombard - KO (1/2)
Very similar to my logic shown above, except for Lombard's downhill. I think his athleticism is good, he is very strong and is a bad matchup for Hendricks in some aspects.
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4 - Mutante - SUB (1/2)
Mutante is very technical and slick on the ground, and Theodorou never impresses me. Mutante is not so bad standing, maybe too relaxed sometimes, and that's why I don't have more confidence on him
Mutante ITD +325, I like it.
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5 - Santos - KO (1/2)
Very good fight. I wonder if Marshman plans to take it to the ground, because Santos is very agressive and dangeours. Sometimes these kinds of fight go the distance for excessive caution, so...
Santos DEC +750, Marsh DEC +850 and fights GTD +350 are all good.
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5 - Ponzinibbio
Alright, tricky one. Ponzinibbio has made me shut my mouth lots of times, but I'm not sold on him yet, whereas I think Taleb is very underrated. I don't really understand the odds on this one.
Taleb at +400, Dec +500 and ITD +1200 ( wtf - this is too much) are all good odds.
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2 - McMann SUB (1/2)
McMann has lots of credentials and seems to be adapting and improving a lot, and her opponent has only fought bums...I should put it at group 1, but it is WMMA. Remembering Grasso, I could put this on Group 3, but fuck that. Herrig is better in comparison.
McMann ITD +275, all over that.
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5 - Vieira - SUB (1/2)
Good fight that has a big possibility of ending quickly. I think that Vieira is a bit underrated and in my opinion his opponent shouldn't be that favorite on the odds, not experienced enough.
Vieira ITD +500, check thisout.
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3 - Esparza - DEC/R3
Not so sure about this, but c'mon, Markos is not even that good. Esparza has good credentials and excels where Markos is "good". I don't believe any of them will have the edge standing. Esparza's wrestling will make Markos coast, tire, and maybe get submitted in the end.
I'm not confident for this shit tbh, Esparza's been off for a long time...Maybe I'd drop it to Group 4, but let's go.
Esparza R3 +1900 - hitting that.
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3 - Meerschaert - KO - R1/2
Janes looks so bad to me, and Meers had a great performance. I think that he improved a lot and maybe will make this an easy night. I'd be even more confident if he had beaten more proven fighters already.
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5 - Tucker - KO R1/2
Sicilia looks so shot huh? Tucket is a powerhouse and will likely go for the finish by any means. Putting these two points together, I slightly favor him.
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3 - Felder - KO R2/3 or DEC
This is another fight that I'd be more confident if not for the last performances. I don't really think that Ricci may be a threat for Felder, but Felder is such a weird guy. He fights on his opponent's level and that may cost him some fights.
Felder R2 +800, R3 +1600 - also hitting that.