UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

Status
Not open for further replies.
plekz said:
his ''game'' from bottom is pretty much him playing rubber or trying to roll for leglocks, neither are probably advisable against a sambo world champion. if tony ends up on the ground, all his energy should be used to try and create openings to scramble out, or he'll have a very rough night. it would be some serious hubris on his part if he decides to play grappling with khabib.

tony is a 10 planet brown belt with _NO_ bjj accolades to speak of, and a div ii national wrestling champ, khabib is a black belt in judo, and a world champion in combat sambo.
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]

God bless you Plekz, but you always do this. I'm not saying non-MMA accolades mean nothing, because that would be foolish. But it's equally as foolish to act like they mean everything. Guys enter MMA and focus on all aspects of MMA training. They get really good at...MMsA (go figure!). Just because Tony has no bjj accolades or wrestled D2 doesn't mean he's gonna go in there like some wide eyed noob and get ragdolled by Khabib. Haven't we seen enough examples of guys with lesser creds in other competition (kickboxing, grappling tourneys, wrestling, etc.) win that area against more accomplished guys in those areas when it comes to an MMA fight?

"He's a black belt!" "He was an All American wrestler!" "He dominated in K-1!"

I know he was a bit older obviously, but how did olympic wrestler Vlad Matsushenko (probably spelled wrong, not checking) do vs Juco wrestler Jon Jones in that dept? Yeah, Jones threw him on his head like a dad throwing his kid around. GSP with zero wrestling creds dominating a division for years with...wrestling. There's other examples of course.

When guys focus fully on all aspects of MMA training, generally they make improvements in all those areas right? Tony has shown he can handle himself wherever the fight takes place. Does that mean it's a great idea for him to get comfy playing his guard game for 25 minutes against Khabib? Uhh, no. I think we all agree on that. But I'm not gonna be shocked at all if he is able to tie Khabib up using a combo of rubber guard and traditional guard (because that's really the only way rubber guard works is if you're mixing it up) and landing short elbows off his back. Hell I wouldn't be stunned if he's the one doing more damage from that spot with those razor sharp elbows.
 
Anybody else eyeing the Bektic/Elkins over? -145 seems like a pretty good price, Elkins is a tough SOB i'd be surprised if Bektic put him away early
 
Cptn1NSAN0 said:
Anybody else eyeing the Bektic/Elkins over? -145 seems like a pretty good price, Elkins is a tough SOB i'd be surprised if Bektic put him away early
Click to expand...

yea i'm considering it

that said, we might get bektic dec +150 or something..
 
Anyone else saying YOLO and betting old man Dan Kelly at +170 against Rashad?

Also, Andre "The Asian Sensation" Soukamthath made me some money in CES MMA, including multiple scheduled-for-five-round title fights. I like him as a underdog against Morales, who is not far removed from a regional level fighter himself despite having two UFC fights, including a lame draw and a loss.
 
JimGunn said:
Anyone else saying YOLO and betting old man Dan Kelly at +170 against Rashad?

Also, Andre "The Asian Sensation" Soukamthath made me some money in CES MMA, including multiple scheduled-for-five-round title fights. I like him as a underdog against Morales, who is not far removed from a regional level fighter himself despite having two UFC fights, including a lame draw and a loss.
Click to expand...

Will be on both too.

Kelly because at this point I honestly have zero clue what Rashad has left. Kelly is a dad-bod mid tier fighter but for all we know Glover ruined Rashad's chin forever.

Souk for the same reasons as you. But I need to watch a little more of Morales before deciding how much to bet. But yeah I made $ on Souk on those AXS cards too and I think he's actually not bad.
 
Officer_Brown said:
I just put a trust on Overeems glass chin.Fuck my life.
Click to expand...
I'm 2u deep on him and considering adding more. IMO Reem's main issue isn't his actual "chin," but how he responds to being tagged. I know you could argue it's the same thing, but it's not like he just goes completely lights out any time he gets touched. He just freezes up and stays open to eating more shots that end up finishing him off. Anyways my point is that that isn't really what happened to him against Stipe, he just got GnP'd to fuck iirc (haven't rewatched that one since September.) Leading up to and including that fight, Reem had been fighting much smarter. Much more to his technical advantages, rather than his previous "bully" style that led to him gassing so many times or winding up in a bad spot and being finished. He even started getting called things like Econoreem and Calcureem, reflecting this intelligent new approach from him. It's like he get's KO'd again and everyone just completely writes off all of those improvements that he made on his latest run. If this fight was happening PRE-Stipe, we'd be paying over -2xx for his ML imo. We should also consider that Hunt has come out and stated on record that he is only taking this fight to feed his family and that he doesn't even want to be fighting at all. That's an enormous red flag for me while Reem is one fight removed from being in the most motivated mindset he's ever had imo.
 
JimGunn said:
Anyone else saying YOLO and betting old man Dan Kelly at +170 against Rashad?

Also, Andre "The Asian Sensation" Soukamthath made me some money in CES MMA, including multiple scheduled-for-five-round title fights. I like him as a underdog against Morales, who is not far removed from a regional level fighter himself despite having two UFC fights, including a lame draw and a loss.
Click to expand...
What are your thoughts on Souk? Morales is all aggression, a risk taker, walk-down pressure type guy with little defense. I bet Perez over him and was shitting bricks until the push.
 
Cptn1NSAN0 said:
I'm 2u deep on him and considering adding more. IMO Reem's main issue isn't his actual "chin," but how he responds to being tagged. I know you could argue it's the same thing, but it's not like he just goes completely lights out any time he gets touched. He just freezes up and stays open to eating more shots that end up finishing him off. Anyways my point is that that isn't really what happened to him against Stipe, he just got GnP'd to fuck iirc (haven't rewatched that one since September.) Leading up to and including that fight, Reem had been fighting much smarter. Much more to his technical advantages, rather than his previous "bully" style that led to him gassing so many times or winding up in a bad spot and being finished. He even started getting called things like Econoreem and Calcureem, reflecting this intelligent new approach from him. It's like he get's KO'd again and everyone just completely writes off all of those improvements that he made on his latest run. If this fight was happening PRE-Stipe, we'd be paying over -2xx for his ML imo. We should also consider that Hunt has come out and stated on record that he is only taking this fight to feed his family and that he doesn't even want to be fighting at all. That's an enormous red flag for me while Reem is one fight removed from being in the most motivated mindset he's ever had imo.
Click to expand...

Question for you guys betting 'Reem. Are you on his ML at -140? Don't you like o1.5 at +110 better? I have a hard time seeing him getting Hunto out of there, esp early. If Reem fights smart and avoids exchanges like you want him to, the fight should go past 1.5 right? If he reverts to trading bombs, do you really want to lay juice against Hunt anyway?

Reem dec is +341 too. I'm on both o1.5 and Reem dec, to me seems like more value than his ML. I don't think he cracks Hunt's chin, esp inside 7.5 minutes.
 
JimGunn said:
Anyone else saying YOLO and betting old man Dan Kelly at +170 against Rashad?
Click to expand...
Seems like a lot of people are on Kelly here. Sure it's the +170, value etc etc but his price should be bigger imo. He's not fighting Chris Camozzi. Difficult to see where he's going to have the advantage over Rashad.
 
^^Yes. I like the Reem and I played over 1.5 (I don't have access to his decision line at my book). I expect him to fight the way he has been fighting in his last 5. He seems very aware that he cannot get hit.
 
mkess101 said:
Question for you guys betting 'Reem. Are you on his ML at -140? Don't you like o1.5 at +110 better? I have a hard time seeing him getting Hunto out of there, esp early. If Reem fights smart and avoids exchanges like you want him to, the fight should go past 1.5 right? If he reverts to trading bombs, do you really want to lay juice against Hunt anyway?

Reem dec is +341 too. I'm on both o1.5 and Reem dec, to me seems like more value than his ML. I don't think he cracks Hunt's chin, esp inside 7.5 minutes.
Click to expand...
I get you but I've been trying to evolve my style away from hitting so many props, unless something REALLY jumps at me, like Miller dec +9xx a few weeks ago (which of course didn't hit, lending credence to my current feeling about props) I could've had Reem dec +500 at one point so I don't mind passing on the current price.

I am considering the over, but again, trying to be less cute with my approach. I'm always super cautious playing any HW overs in the first place, and in this case we have arguably one of the hardest punchers in MMA history fighting someone who can finish him standing or on the ground. I don't think a finish is super likely but there's enough concern for me to maybe pass altogether.
 
NinjaCat456 said:
Seems like a lot of people are on Kelly here. Sure it's the +170, value etc etc but his price should be bigger imo. He's not fighting Chris Camozzi. Difficult to see where he's going to have the advantage over Rashad.
Click to expand...
That's how I lean too, maybe if he was over +200 I'd bite but this seems very meh to me. imo we haven't seen enough of Rashad in his last few to suggest that he's completely done, he very well could be but for +170 I wouldn't count on it.
 
I'm surprised that some of you don't remember Soukamthath from AXS TV fights. He's Asian-American, and tall for a bantamweight, 5'9", same as Morales, and a very good striker with fight ending techniques and has much improved takedown defense as evidenced by avenging his loss to wrestler Kin Moy in CES MMA most recently. He fought in at least two or three scheduled-for-five round title fights in CES MMA, although they didn't all go the distance. Soukamthath has great knees, and pretty fast hands & kicks and even submissions. He's one of those guys that I have been waiting to see get the UFC call up for a couple of years now and I think he will impress in his debut. I'll add a little on his KO or ITD line as well.
 
Rashad looks to be in pretty amazing shape.. not sure if i can stay on the Kelly train for this one :D was hoping he would be +200 or better





 
JimGunn said:
I'm surprised that some of you don't remember Soukamthath from AXS TV fights. He's Asian-American, and tall for a bantamweight, 5'9", same as Morales, and a very good striker with fight ending techniques and has much improved takedown defense as evidenced by avenging his loss to wrestler Kin Moy in CES MMA most recently. He fought in at least two or three scheduled-for-five round title fights in CES MMA, although they didn't all go the distance. Soukamthath has great knees, and pretty fast hands & kicks and even submissions. He's one of those guys that I have been waiting to see get the UFC call up for a couple of years now and I think he will impress in his debut. I'll add a little on his KO or ITD line as well.
Click to expand...
Wasn't he losing the rematch until he landed that knee? I need to rewatch
 
wack3d said:
Rashad looks to be in pretty amazing shape.. not sure if i can stay on the Kelly train for this one :D was hoping he would be +200 or better





Click to expand...

He looks great. If his chin was indeed ruined by Glover then I don't know if Kelly is the guy to exploit it anyways.
 
Ferg SPLIT is +1465? I could easily see a situation where each guy has two clear rounds and a tossup round determines the whole fight. Sprinkle sprinkle.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,239,170
Messages
55,609,887
Members
174,851
Latest member
kwaszak

Share this page

Back
Top