UFN 106 - Belfort vs Gastelum - Brazil

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been watching some tape on this bora chiwawa guy, he looks legit. very large for mw, fundamentally sound, technical brawler with a lot of steam on his shots. he looks solid on the ground too. he can leave himself open when he's swinging to take your head off but i don't think the beast mclellan is going to be able to take advantage.

i have a feeling his line is going to be juiced but let's see.
 
cagebrain said:
its not necessarily 1 unit... it could be 2 or 3 or 5 depending on his BR

but yeah i understand what you're getting at
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It doesn't really matter what his BR is, though. A unit doesn't necessarily have to be 1% of a person's bankroll or any specific % for that matter. 1 unit is basically a normal/standard sized bet and he basically risks the same $300 on every bet
 
Jae Gibbz said:
It doesn't really matter what his BR is, though. A unit doesn't necessarily have to be 1% of a person's bankroll or any specific % for that matter. 1 unit is basically a normal/standard sized bet and he basically risks the same $300 on every bet
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touche, though the standard unit is 1% BR you are indeed correct.
 
I don't think he has a set BR lol
 
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Form borg tough one to call i dont have a strong lean either way. If it turns into a kickboxing match i have no idea who wins especially in brazil as its bound to be close if a striking battle. Form has a nice right hand but hes a low volume counter striker. Borg's shots are looping so you can see them coming but hes only 23 and with gibson now so of the two you would expect bigger improvements from borg standing but i can only bet on facts not assumptions.

On the mat its hard to gauge too but i do lean form. Big step up for borg grappling wise he isnt going to dominate like he has everyone else. Form has solid tdd his guard is impossible to pass and he is deadly if you step in with punches and he body locks you. Form has a 4 inch reach adv which could prove crucial as borg is going to have to come inside to land which means the body lock will be there for Form. He is exceptional at shucking you from the body lock and taking your back standing and he also has nice trips and td's from the clinch. I really cant see borg being able to mount much offence if borg does get on top. Reis seemed to out physical form in the clinch so form found it difficult to get his game going for the most part and so did cejudo but thats an olympic gold medalist. If borg can shut form down in the clinch this is gonna be razor close but borgs comp has been a step below form. Although smolka ultimately lost every scramble on the mat he did manage to scramble on borg multiple times so i think positionally form is the more refined grappler.

I guess i lean form especially if he can get his td's/back take from the clinch going. But if borg is strong enough to shut that part of his game down like cejudo did and reis did for the most part we are gonna have a razor close fight.
 
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Yeah lines are out. Borg/Jussier is so close? what am i missing here? People so high on that Smolka destruction?
 
LOL Means is so freakishly juiced, not going to play him on these odds fuck yo. Before their first fight it was a pickem fight and then people saw how first minutes of the fight went.. fucking losers.
 
early action on means, formiga, tractor, lee
 
I don't known who bets the line early. I once bet open line early when my max is $250, now it is $50 max, no thanks you.

It seems like the people who bet the open line knows what they are doing, I genuinely agree with their lean mostly. Why would you want to help them shape the line when open line limit is so puny. Couldn't you wait until it open across the board, than bet on every site or wait at least they increase the limit to $500 usd on Pinny or Nitrogen?
 
Officer_Brown said:
LOL Means is so freakishly juiced, not going to play him on these odds fuck yo. Before their first fight it was a pickem fight and then people saw how first minutes of the fight went.. fucking losers.
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Means is unplayable, stupid line. Liking odds on my girl Bethe though. Told you guys Lee vs Trinaldo would be tight. Seems like Lee is getting bet by the public though.
 
Shitty lines right now. I liked the opening line on Lee and still like Bethes price at around -110. Marion Reneau is awful. Sucks that the line on Shogun/Villante is spot on.
 
Someone bet Means at -320, haha. I can not wait to bet Brazilian Cowboy at +300.

Pinnacle no longer a leader in mma market, it seems 5dimes is the leader although limit is puny. It seem BetOnline is the future of mma market, great limit and comparable juice to Pinnacle too. Thank you BetOnline for step it up with early lines, more early than Pinnacle now.
 
Opening odds -
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Current odds -
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I wish this board influence the line, posters are so high on Joe Soto but yet Yahya open at -175, that make me a sad Polar bear. I though many poster like Soto, it is +135 and no one is touching it.
 
I love it that no one touching Pinnacle line Dariush vs Barboza. New greedy owner think they can make more $$$ with juice line +145/-164 haha. Pinnacle founder likely have it +150/-162, soon Pinnacle will be like William Hill, only use them when it is a slow moving line.
 
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