UFN 106 - Belfort vs Gastelum - Brazil

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EzFlyer said:
what..??

praz doesn't have good takedowns/wrestling? the dude is a tree trunk, SUPER hard to take down...

http://www.fightmetric.com/fighter-details/e51fcd9cd84c0b93

and he had 5 td's sv burns, 7 vs cottrell, he took down kevin l33 3x.. he won the taisumov because of his takedowns... 7x against ronson

i genuinely think you two are reaching on burk, but i'm a broken record in this case. your money, your call.
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I'm not disputing he's hard to takedown but his td success is 35% and it would be less if not for the Cottrell fight who does not have any tdd whatsoever. Taisumov he couldn't take down after r1. He got Kelvin down once for about 10 seconds, then Kelvin got up. He had other td attempts where Kelvin popped back up immediately that's not a td, and there's a few Kelvin fights where he gets taken down and pops back up so his tdd is not impenetrable. Burns has never had good tdd it sits at like 36%. Prazeres goes for a lot of takedowns and has a really low hit rate particularly when it comes to securing top control off of a takedown. If someone pops straight up it counts for nothing. I'm very confident he will find Burkman very awkward to take down. No way i can bet Prazeres in what is likely to be a stand up fight when Burkman is the better striker. What you are relying on IMO is Burkman slowing down and while that's likely i can't bet on someone hoping they gas when Prazeres has clear gassing issues himself.
 
Sham5916910 said:
What you are relying on IMO is Burkman slowing down and while that's likely i can't bet on someone hoping they gas when Prazeres has clear gassing issues himself.
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untrue statement there

never said i'm relying on burkman to slow down.

i think prazeres wins the exchanges on the feet early, too.
 
EzFlyer said:
untrue statement there

never said i'm relying on burkman to slow down.

i think prazeres wins the exchanges on the feet early, too.
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I never said you did hence why i put IMO.

Burkman out struck Cote and Felder in r1 he just slows down from r2 onwards but so does Prazeres. He's looked better lately but he didn't really face anything coming back at him against Cottrell and Burns which could be why.

I'm not definitely betting Burkman maybe i will just bet his decision line. Being 1-5, cutting to LW at 36, fight in Brazil, slows down are all big red flags. I just feel this will be a lot closer than the odds suggest and Burkman presents an awkward challenge stylistically.
 
Any parlay kings got something? Dont see much on this card personally.
 
Oblivian said:
Just skimmed through Ramos and Rickels. Can some BJJ guys tell me if Ramos is more of a top positional player? He really couldn't do much against Rickels from his back. I think Moraes will look big too which is odd. Leaning towards playing Moraes here.
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I think he's a guard specialist and has great arm locks and triangles.
 
Prazeres did some beautiful combos to the body against burns throughout the fight, even hurt him badly with a combo to the liver in the third.

That could slow burkman down
 
Kennedy says he's been training with Bibi Fernandez for years now and the guard of Jason won't present anything new.

Interesting because that's Jason's best area.

Also re: prazzy vs burk

It would be nice for praz to be in the -215 range but he's got this.
 
dariush sub +875?
barboza dec +162?
 
Just rewatched Borg Vs Smolka. After second watching I wasn't so impressed compared when I saw the fight live. Jussier is much smoother on the ground and has better positional control. Smolka looked really off. Gained small confidence increase in Jussier.
That being said I just locked in my first parlay. Sorry guys, not expecting to lose this one.
Prazeres/Means/Formiga/Shogun/Gastelum $300 to win $2400 stiff!
 
belfort rd1 +750?
belfort rd2 +2375? <--whoa

olive dec +475
 
cmon Burk dec open at something retarded.......

Already on Borg dec and Bethe dec
 
Soto dec +190 wtf.....

Was hoping with the +140 ml it would be like +250
 
Another addition: Rony Jason/Rani Yahya/Bitch Correia $300 to win $1900. I'm in parlay mood right now but thats enough for today.
 
I see Trinaldo decision at +305, probably the way to go if youre on him.
 
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