UFN 106 - Belfort vs Gastelum - Brazil

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Im with you and @EzFlyer

Dont forget Shogun fight against the Lil Nog corpse. He was wobbled there too and had to wrestle his way to victory (at least he had a gameplan). I had money on him and I remember thinking "my God he is getting KTFOed here" a couple of times.

I love Shogun but he looks so unimpressive that I can pass a semi-decent opponent as a dog against him. I think he is completly shot.

Villante is not good but he has a good chin, power and a huge size advantage.

Still pulling for Shogun but money is on Gian.

Gian KO/TKO up to +317. I'm hitting that. If Shogun is really shot even Gian with his limited arsenal and speed could catch him.
 
Means KO/TKO up to +190????

Yes please! He's pissed at BC about what he thinks was faking to find a way out last time. Means itd is only +107, and doubtful he goes for the sub. He's gonna try to beat the hell out of BC. This is way better than paying juice on Means imo. BC will look for a way out if getting battered again.
 
Scared as fuck for tonight. Think this is my biggest risk event ever, and I seem to have a dissenting opinion on most fights from people in here and the public. It also doesn't help the last two Brazil events (think they're the last two. The Santos-Spicely debacle and UFC 198) were my two biggest losing nights ever
 
Scared as fuck for tonight. Think this is my biggest risk event ever, and I seem to have a dissenting opinion on most fights from people in here and the public. It also doesn't help the last two Brazil events (think they're the last two. The Santos-Spicely debacle and UFC 198) were my two biggest losing nights ever
I feel similar, I have a lot riding on Barbs and Gas, if any of those two lose I am fucked.
 
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FOTN:

Borg/Juicy A +600
Soto/Yahya +2000
Burkman/Prazeras +1700

I think Borg/Formiga is the favorite to win. Could be some great scrambling and back and forth action.

Soto/Rani maybe Rani dominating early then Joe coming back? Probably won't win but +2000?

Josh/Praz could be fun? Burkman always game and if Praz really presses the action could be exciting? +1700 nice payout...
 
FOTN:

Borg/Juicy A +600
Soto/Yahya +2000
Burkman/Prazeras +1700

I think Borg/Formiga is the favorite to win. Could be some great scrambling and back and forth action.

Soto/Rani maybe Rani dominating early then Joe coming back? Probably won't win but +2000?

Josh/Praz could be fun? Burkman always game and if Praz really presses the action could be exciting? +1700 nice payout...

I like Shogun/Gian fight as fight of the night. Shogun has been in wars, I can see this one being another entertaining fight.
 
Means wins in round 2 - +450
Means wins in round 3- +800

Such good value, I am hitting those two as well.
 
I like Shogun/Gian fight as fight of the night. Shogun has been in wars, I can see this one being another entertaining fight.

Yeah but +300...no value.
 
Yeah but +300...no value.
You don't see value in fight that has a good chance to be FOTN at +300? I am taking a shot, I learned my lesson trying to be too greedy. But all of those others you mentioned are good picks as well.
 
Trying to hit event props is a losing man's game. WAY too much variance to be successful long term imo.
 
You don't see value in fight that has a good chance to be FOTN at +300? I am taking a shot, I learned my lesson trying to be too greedy. But all of those others you mentioned are good picks as well.

Yeah no value to me. Could it win? Sure. Maybe co-favorite with Borg/Formiga to me. I just don't see value at +300. If it was +600 like Borg/Formiga I'd be all over it.
 
Trying to hit event props is a losing man's game. WAY too much variance to be successful long term imo.

I keep those bets tiny for fun. I'd tend to agree though. I'm sure I'm down a little on them over the years.
 
Scared as fuck for tonight. Think this is my biggest risk event ever, and I seem to have a dissenting opinion on most fights from people in here and the public. It also doesn't help the last two Brazil events (think they're the last two. The Santos-Spicely debacle and UFC 198) were my two biggest losing nights ever
Well you are on Burk and Dariush, you should be scared lol
 
So you can RR rd 3 bets on:

Means +900 (Kinda self explanatory)
Shogun +950 (Gian gassing always a chance)
Lee +1600 (Much younger, better cardio maybe? Could be a bit of a reach here I guess...)
Soto +1875 (We've seen Rani gas before. He probably doesn't get stopped but never know)

At $.50 each it costs $5.50 to RR these. If somehow all 4 hit the payout is over $27k. If 3 hit worst case is about $1k. If any 2 hit worst case is about $100.

For five bucks, why not?
 
So you can RR rd 3 bets on:

Means +900 (Kinda self explanatory)
Shogun +950 (Gian gassing always a chance)
Lee +1600 (Much younger, better cardio maybe? Could be a bit of a reach here I guess...)
Soto +1875 (We've seen Rani gas before. He probably doesn't get stopped but never know)

At $.50 each it costs $5.50 to RR these. If somehow all 4 hit the payout is over $27k. If 3 hit worst case is about $1k. If any 2 hit worst case is about $100.

For five bucks, why not?
{<huh!}>
 
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