UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

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Rewatched Leites vs Jotko; Leites did land some decent TDDs in rd 1 and early rd 2, but with Jotko's grappling being quite decent he was able to reverse Leites in some positions and ended up on top, especially in rd where Leites began to gas and couldn't get Jotko off him. I don't think this will be the case vs Alvey, I reckon Leites will be able to get Alvey down at some point and I don't think he has the skills to get back up. Once Leites lands a TDD and is on top for a little while Alvey will slow down severely. I think Leites could finish this in late rd 2 or 3. Hoping the odds are fairly tight.

Also FWIW Jotko is a young, hungry, up and comer approaching his prime, I think he will be top 5 within the next year or so. Compare that to Alvey, even though he's only 30 he's lacks serious athleticism and has shown he's a one dimensional fighter who looks to defend TDD's and bang.

Also add to that, that Leites had an awful cut. He looked way of in that fight, compared to his pace against Bisping.
 
If another price isnt what i like im considering al as fodder long as his line doesnt jump when he starts getting parlayed. I liked what he said on bryant and then i watched a diego interview. He looks so old now, broke his toe, rib injury and some heart problem. Then he goes on about having a conversation with God to do with changing his nickname. I see nopath to victory unless al is a shell and im prepared to gamble on him not being one. Al has solid power too think hes dropped nearly everyone hes fought in the UFC.

New owners want Diego gone.
 
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Wassup fellers, appreciate the insight

Anyone else think Sam Alvey by decision might be good value? Hopefully it'll be around +400
 
Wassup fellers, appreciate the insight

Anyone else think Sam Alvey by decision might be good value? Hopefully it'll be around +400
nope alvey sucks and he is gonna get steamrolled by leites. if leites looks good at the weigh ins he is the right pick. you could make a case for nate in that fight but they gave it to alvey. tired of seeing that alvey face.. if he somehow beats leites I pray that they feed him to jacare
 
Probably a hard card to find value on

Initial leans

Cub itd or nsc
Dodson probably by dec
Penne Taylor to scorecards or over
Ortiz by decision or over/scorecards
AI itd or nsc

Going to need to do some tape study for sure for this card
 
nope alvey sucks and he is gonna get steamrolled by leites. if leites looks good at the weigh ins he is the right pick. you could make a case for nate in that fight but they gave it to alvey. tired of seeing that alvey face.. if he somehow beats leites I pray that they feed him to jacare
Nah Alvey clearly beat Nate

But yes his face is annoying
 
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Wassup fellers, appreciate the insight

Anyone else think Sam Alvey by decision might be good value? Hopefully it'll be around +400
The fight is gonna go to decision more often than not. Almost zero chance you get -400 for Alvey DEC unless Leites is overly juiced at like -300

edit i meant +400 for alvey decision
 
The fight is gonna go to decision more often than not. Almost zero chance you get -400 for Alvey DEC unless Leites is overly juiced at like -300

edit i meant +400 for alvey decision
When Kalikas is the oddsmaker anything is possible
 
^^ wtf we dont have odds on any of those results
 
Why Leites looked so shit against Jotko. I feel he should have won that fight easily. Bad weight cut?
 
Why Leites looked so shit against Jotko. I feel he should have won that fight easily. Bad weight cut?
I agree that he didn't look good but the odds in that fight were pretty close. Pretty sure it closed under -150 Leites. I feel like it would be more concerning if he were a bigger favorite and looked that bad
 
Why Leites looked so shit against Jotko. I feel he should have won that fight easily. Bad weight cut?

That fight against Jotko was probably his worst performance in a long time. For me it seemed like he hadn't grappled for a long time, and underestimated how competitive grappling can take a toll on your cardio. All this grappling combined with a bad weight cut is never a good combo.
 
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