UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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With you on Penne NSC. Like that a lot.
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On Taylor but not super confident, I am supremely confident in the over though. Think Barbarena could finish Proctor.
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what's your most confident bet?
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I think Taylor might win if she pressures but so far in the UFC she's tried fighting at range (lol I don't know why she's 4ft 11 lol) and is content throwing 3 strikes per round.
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Good chance the Davis fight doesn't go to points.
Penne could easily lose, total coin toss.
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You are encouraging people to go tout. Touting is bs.
If you want any clarification pm me so we dont clog the thread.
Antagonist88
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Leites DEC jumped to +235
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For the record, I have always found @MMA Goodfella 's input to be valuable and have never felt pressured nor even noticed that he was selling or promoting other who are selling picks. I am not sure why we need to attack him.
Also, I don't understand the attitude that anyone who sells picks is some sort of scam artist or a lesser person or whatever else. Surely there are people out there, some of them post here, who are winning MMA bettors. If those people want to sell their picks they should be feel free to do just that. It is up to the customer to decide how valuable those picks are, or if they are valuable at all.
I never used to understand why anyone would bother selling picks. I always thought if you were a big winner and you wanted to sell picks you should just bet more on your own picks and save the trouble. As I have gotten older and gotten to meet many professional gamblers, I realize that variance free money is a very important thing for an adult that has financial responsibilities.
Also, I don't understand the attitude that anyone who sells picks is some sort of scam artist or a lesser person or whatever else. Surely there are people out there, some of them post here, who are winning MMA bettors. If those people want to sell their picks they should be feel free to do just that. It is up to the customer to decide how valuable those picks are, or if they are valuable at all.
I never used to understand why anyone would bother selling picks. I always thought if you were a big winner and you wanted to sell picks you should just bet more on your own picks and save the trouble. As I have gotten older and gotten to meet many professional gamblers, I realize that variance free money is a very important thing for an adult that has financial responsibilities.
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My favorite underdog was Ellenberger at +160.
ELLENBERGER SAID PERRY IS A LOT DIFFERENT IN THE FIRST ROUND THAN HE IS IN THE SECOND SUGGESTING ELLENBERGER THINKS HE HAS BETTER CARDIO, ALSO, IT COULD SUGGEST ELLENBERGER WILL INDEED MIX IN TAKEDOWNS. MAYBE HE WANTS TO WRESTLE PERRY IN ROUND 1 TO TAKE HIS POWER AWAY AND THEN LAY HIM DOWN IN RD 2 WHERE THE SPEED MAY NOT SHOW. IN ANOTHER INTERVIEW ELLENBERGER SAID PERRY IS PREDICTABLE AND THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF HOLES, TO ME IT SEEMS LIKE HES ELUDING TO THE TAKEDOWN BUT NOT TRYING TO GIVE AWAY TOO MUCH FROM THE WAY HE SAYS IT. HE DIDNT SAY THERE ARE A LOT OF HOLES IN HIS STRIKNG AND STRIKING WASNT EXACTLY THE CONTEXT OF THE CONVERSATION. IN THIS INTERVIEW HE ALSO SAYS HIS CONDITIONNG IS ON ANOTHER LEVEL, CONFIRMING MY EARLIER THOUGHT, AND HES BEEN DOING CARDIO WORKOUTS DESIGNED TO MAKE HIM FAIL. HE SAYS HES HIS OWN WORSE ENEMY, HIS OWN TOUGHEST OPPONENT AND HE EXPECTS A LOT FROM HIMSELF COME FIGHT TIME.
I THINK ELLENBERGER GET THE TAKEDOWN WHEN HE WANTS IT AND PERRY WILL GIVE ELLENBERGER THE OPPORTUNITY TO COUNTER OFTEN PREVENTING ELLENBERGER FROM BEING LOW VOLUME. ELLENBERGER HAS SERIOUS POWER. PERRY IS INEXPERIENCED AND PREDICTABLE, ELLENBERGER SHOULD BE READY FOR WHATEVER PUNCH PERRY THROWS. ELLENBERGERS LAST 8 WOULD PUT 4 LOSSES OR MORE ON ANYONE AND THE STRIKERS HE FACED TRIED THEIR BEST TO PREVENT ELLENBERGER FROM COUNTERING. ELLENBERGER WATCHED THE JOUBAN FIGHT.
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ELLENBERGER, THINKS HE WINS BY KO BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DEC. PEOPLE PLAYING UNDER 1.5 THINKING THEY'RE SAFE COULD GET BLINDSIDED, BE CAREFUL AND DONT OVERPLAY THE UNDER OR ELLENBERGER/PERRY RD 1.
I THINK ELLENBERGER GET THE TAKEDOWN WHEN HE WANTS IT AND PERRY WILL GIVE ELLENBERGER THE OPPORTUNITY TO COUNTER OFTEN PREVENTING ELLENBERGER FROM BEING LOW VOLUME. ELLENBERGER HAS SERIOUS POWER. PERRY IS INEXPERIENCED AND PREDICTABLE, ELLENBERGER SHOULD BE READY FOR WHATEVER PUNCH PERRY THROWS. ELLENBERGERS LAST 8 WOULD PUT 4 LOSSES OR MORE ON ANYONE AND THE STRIKERS HE FACED TRIED THEIR BEST TO PREVENT ELLENBERGER FROM COUNTERING. ELLENBERGER WATCHED THE JOUBAN FIGHT.
LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ELLENBERGER, THINKS HE WINS BY KO BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DEC. PEOPLE PLAYING UNDER 1.5 THINKING THEY'RE SAFE COULD GET BLINDSIDED, BE CAREFUL AND DONT OVERPLAY THE UNDER OR ELLENBERGER/PERRY RD 1.
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I always tell people #StopGuessingStartWinning, this seems like you are guessing. I never do any more than 3 leg parlays and I rarely even do those. Unfortunately I cannot approve this play, come at me with a edgy, winning underdog play and you will gain my #respect
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Dodson ITD is 1.66 at Bet365 now, this is madness. I'm already a unit in on Wineland dec and one on the over at 2.4 but at 2.75 I might have to add more.
When was the last time something like this happened, Lineker - MacDonald?
When was the last time something like this happened, Lineker - MacDonald?
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+110 on Alvey is very tempting, I favour him to win against Leites. Alvey isn't a great striker, he's not a great grappler, he's not a great athlete but he presents a difficult match up for a lot of guys. Alvey has 85% TDD, he's only taken down three times in his UFC career, twice by Andrews in 2014 and once by Marquardt in his last fight. Despite not being a great athlete or wrestler, Alvey's TDD is very good, I doubt Leites will have much success getting this to the ground.
Alveys problem has always been his output, this is because he chooses to be the counter striker in every fight, sometimes he spends to long waiting to find his shot and this impacts his output. Alvey has slow plodding footwork, he likes to exchange from boxing range and he rarely throws kick.
Leites looked good when he returned to th UFC in 2013, he went on a nice run, he beat decent opponents and looked impressive doing so. Leites in now 35 years old and he turns 36 this year. After the Bisping fight I saw a decline, he looked like trash vs Mousasi, his wrestling was ineffective as he went 0/10 on TD's lol. He gassed badly after the 1st round and did nothing but eat jabs for 15 minutes.
Leites bounced back vs Camozzi, he able to expose Camozzi's weak TDD and grappling. Camozzi was a great match up for Leites and Camozzi just isn't very good.
Against Jotko, Leites looked ok in round 1, however in round 2 he was a dead man, badly gassed. Leites went 1/8 on TD's in that fight, his only TD coming in the 1st round. Jotko actaully ended up out grappling Leites in that fight because Leites was so tired.
Like Jacare vs Whittaker, the key here is TDD. Here's whats gonna happen. Leites will be fresh and strong in the 1st, he's going to push Alvey against the cage and try to work his TD's, Alvey will defend, perhaps he'll give up one or two TD's but he's going to force Leites to work and exert himself. Come the 2nd round I expect Leites to gas as he always does when he struggles to get TD's. Alvey will begin to take over and I expect him to either finish Leites or win a clear 29-28 decision.
Alvey has made improvents over the past couple years, he's much for effective with his style of fighting and he has improved his output, Leites is clearly declining with age and maybe he's missing something else too.
+110 has still kind got me on the fence, +120 and I'm in.
Alveys problem has always been his output, this is because he chooses to be the counter striker in every fight, sometimes he spends to long waiting to find his shot and this impacts his output. Alvey has slow plodding footwork, he likes to exchange from boxing range and he rarely throws kick.
Leites looked good when he returned to th UFC in 2013, he went on a nice run, he beat decent opponents and looked impressive doing so. Leites in now 35 years old and he turns 36 this year. After the Bisping fight I saw a decline, he looked like trash vs Mousasi, his wrestling was ineffective as he went 0/10 on TD's lol. He gassed badly after the 1st round and did nothing but eat jabs for 15 minutes.
Leites bounced back vs Camozzi, he able to expose Camozzi's weak TDD and grappling. Camozzi was a great match up for Leites and Camozzi just isn't very good.
Against Jotko, Leites looked ok in round 1, however in round 2 he was a dead man, badly gassed. Leites went 1/8 on TD's in that fight, his only TD coming in the 1st round. Jotko actaully ended up out grappling Leites in that fight because Leites was so tired.
Like Jacare vs Whittaker, the key here is TDD. Here's whats gonna happen. Leites will be fresh and strong in the 1st, he's going to push Alvey against the cage and try to work his TD's, Alvey will defend, perhaps he'll give up one or two TD's but he's going to force Leites to work and exert himself. Come the 2nd round I expect Leites to gas as he always does when he struggles to get TD's. Alvey will begin to take over and I expect him to either finish Leites or win a clear 29-28 decision.
Alvey has made improvents over the past couple years, he's much for effective with his style of fighting and he has improved his output, Leites is clearly declining with age and maybe he's missing something else too.
+110 has still kind got me on the fence, +120 and I'm in.
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I'm betting Jake and Sam
And I don't give a flying fuck
Artem is gunna get schooled
Raging Al and Diego is gunna be a weird decision we all moan about and I don't want to be on the wrong side of it
Can't be arsed touching the girl fights except the overs
That pretty much sums up my gambling night
And I don't give a flying fuck
Artem is gunna get schooled
Raging Al and Diego is gunna be a weird decision we all moan about and I don't want to be on the wrong side of it
Can't be arsed touching the girl fights except the overs
That pretty much sums up my gambling night
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Did you just answer your own Q or you contradicting yourself?
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First time on here and trying to understand the smartest picks for this FN. Was 1 fight off an 8 fight multi the last time I did UFC betting (fuck you Dan Henderson). Correct me if I'm wrong at any point here, as I say this is all very new to me.
From what I can tell so far Sandoval v Schnell gives the edge to the Schnellfish as a submission guy, because Sandoval showed submission weakness in his fight v Reis and the reason Font beat him was because he'd never been tapped.
Dandois v Davis looks like a mess that could go either way, as Davis did get tapped out but by way of wrestlefuck where Dandois is a judo/BJJ girl.
Barberena v the Proctologist will likely end before the final whistle but it's tough to say who takes it given Barberena is back at Welterweight and Proctor is a goddamn sin wave.
I haven't seen much of Jessica Penne so I'm gonna on assumptions that may be completely wrong, but she has the exact same reach as Maryna Moroz so she should decision Danielle Devito easily just like Moroz did.
Hot Sauce has never been tapped out and Michael McBride has only ever won by submission so this should be an easy win for Holtzman
Moreno v Ortiz appears to be a pretty clear pick 'em, as does Platinum v Ellenberger
Alvey has insane TDD and Leites can't do much on the feet so that should be an easy win
Stevie Ray has shown a weakness to submissions in past (4) and although he hasn't had to do it in 5 years that is Lauzon's speciality so should go his way.
Wineland has won 4/5 of his UFC fights by KO/TKO and Dodson has never even been finished, let alone knocked out, so Dodson is probably the safest pick here
Only thing you can say for sure about OSP v de Lima is that it will finish in the first round, because all of de Lima's fights do win or lose
Iaquinta has only ever lost by submission and Sanchez hasn't tapped anyone out since 2004 so easy Al win
Cub should dominate Lobov but he looked awful at the stare down so I'm guessing it's best to stay the fuck away there
From what I can tell so far Sandoval v Schnell gives the edge to the Schnellfish as a submission guy, because Sandoval showed submission weakness in his fight v Reis and the reason Font beat him was because he'd never been tapped.
Dandois v Davis looks like a mess that could go either way, as Davis did get tapped out but by way of wrestlefuck where Dandois is a judo/BJJ girl.
Barberena v the Proctologist will likely end before the final whistle but it's tough to say who takes it given Barberena is back at Welterweight and Proctor is a goddamn sin wave.
I haven't seen much of Jessica Penne so I'm gonna on assumptions that may be completely wrong, but she has the exact same reach as Maryna Moroz so she should decision Danielle Devito easily just like Moroz did.
Hot Sauce has never been tapped out and Michael McBride has only ever won by submission so this should be an easy win for Holtzman
Moreno v Ortiz appears to be a pretty clear pick 'em, as does Platinum v Ellenberger
Alvey has insane TDD and Leites can't do much on the feet so that should be an easy win
Stevie Ray has shown a weakness to submissions in past (4) and although he hasn't had to do it in 5 years that is Lauzon's speciality so should go his way.
Wineland has won 4/5 of his UFC fights by KO/TKO and Dodson has never even been finished, let alone knocked out, so Dodson is probably the safest pick here
Only thing you can say for sure about OSP v de Lima is that it will finish in the first round, because all of de Lima's fights do win or lose
Iaquinta has only ever lost by submission and Sanchez hasn't tapped anyone out since 2004 so easy Al win
Cub should dominate Lobov but he looked awful at the stare down so I'm guessing it's best to stay the fuck away there
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Wow I have a lot to learn. I bow down to you master. Hopefully Al Iaquinta ITD hits tonight and I gain your respect.
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